Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

[jakeseven7]

WRT testing numbers, given the public holiday not surprised they are lower. But also we have just had 5 days of crazy heat, so not likley many are exeperiencing cold or flu-like symptoms. Unless they request asymptomatic testing for LGAs of concern then I cant see the numbers staying too high unless ther eis another case to scare people.

Makes sense, but same situation for VIC, blistering heat and holidays but strong testing numbers especially given they didn't have an outbreak as big as Sydney recently. I just think Victorians are more programmed to go and get tested even if its a minor symptom, than any other state!

 

[Lynda2475]

I think Victorians are more paranoid because they have a Premiere more inclined to shut everything down for small risk, as opposed to a pragmatic one who keep as much open as posisble. Also some worry about the AO arrivals having the more hughly transmissable strains.

Not to mention daily testimg of some 1200 AO arrivals plus workers at those sites is artifically boosting numbers, not all of those tests are in the community.

At today''s presser whilst Dr Chant and Gladys expressed a desire for higher testing numbers, they also explictly emphasized they only want you to go for a test if you have been to an exposure site or have symptoms, actively discouraging asymptomatic testing.

With all the physical distancing I havent had so much as a sniffle all year. I do wonder if there will even be a flu circulating this year, since there arent huge volumes of unchecked overseas arrivals to bring it into the country as per otehr years. It was virtyally non existent last winter.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

I think Victorians are more paranoid because they have a Premiere more inclined to shut everything down for small risk, as opposed to a pragmatic one who keep as much open as posisble.

Paranoid or just practical and acting on what now is just good common sense (plus recommend by the CHOs including Dr Chant) ?

ie

At today''s presser whilst Dr Chant and Gladys expressed a desire for higher testing numbers,

The second wave in Vic made it clear that low testing rates, or slow to get test, meant drawing out the time to control new outbreaks.
With these at good rates, along with other enhancements, from first positive case to resolution has been only one to two weeks for every single out break since October. Good testing habits is one of the key reasons why.

Also some worry about the AO arrivals having the more hughly transmissable strains.

News on that strain in some of the AO Cohort came out on 24 Jan.

Vic test results and numbers are reported the day after. So test numbers from any worry should have spiked from 25 Jan on. There does not seem to have been any surge in testing numbers generated by that news.






What did cause a surge in tests were the 3 local community cases that became know late on 31 December casing a surge in those seeking tests. ie More people sought testing on 1 Dec (with those test reported on 2 Dec). The requirement to return home also overlapped.

 

[Gremlin]

A phrase I've heard a lot in relation to NSW, particularly Western and Southwestern Sydney, is "testing fatigue". The more circulation in the community, the more testing you need to control spread. The more testing you do, the less likely people will come forward a second, third and fourth time for further testing a month, two months, etc down the track. Dr Chant talks about wanting 25 000 tests a day to be confident in their results. NSW hasn't hit that figure since 5 Jan.

 

[jase05]

Sounds like fun

China implements invasive quarantine rules amid fear of holiday coronavirus outbreak - ABC News

amp.abc.net.au

 

[Pushka]

Sounds like fun

China implements invasive quarantine rules amid fear of holiday coronavirus outbreak - ABC News

amp.abc.net.au

Well, they do acknowledge this:
Dr Li said because cough swabs were not as convenient as oral swabs, they were only being used for people under quarantine in major hotspots, including Daxing district in Beijing.

Good Lord. Let's hope they get the order right.

 

[Lynda2475]

Dr Chant talks about wanting 25 000 tests a day to be confident in their results. NSW hasn't hit that figure since 5 Jan.

She did ackowledge today that with virtually no cold or flu viruses circulating few people have symptoms. And the guidance is still to come forward only if you have been identified as a close or casual contact (been to a place where someone with covid has been, or been in close proximity to someone who has) or if you have symptoms.

Its conveinient for states who want hard borders to inist there is scary amounts of untraced community transmission due to low test volumes, but far more plausible that peopel dont have symptoms.

Gladys said today hitting testing targets wasnt a conditionof easing more restrictions in a fortnight.

Funny no one questioned how low Queensland test numbers were following the cleaner scare - even adjusted for population differences they got no where near % that Sydney got to immediately following comunity cases.

 

[Gremlin]

Gladys said today hitting testing targets wasnt a conditionof easing more restrictions in a fortnight.

Funny no one questioned how low Queensland test numbers were following the cleaner scare - even adjusted for population differences they got no where near % that Sydney got to immediately following comunity cases.

I can absolutely confirm that testing volumes, especially in Western and Southwestern Sydney, is one of the reasons states have been slower to open to NSW than Vic or Qld. Gladys might be okay with it, but other state leaders are less okay (both Labor and Lib states). That's reality.

One key difference with Qld is that Qld isolate both primary and secondary contacts (ie contacts of contacts) immediately. NSW hasn't done that.

 

[Lynda2475]

One key difference with Qld is that Qld isolate both primary and secondary contacts (ie contacts of contacts) immediately. NSW hasn't done that.

That is not strictly true. Where a person is a close contact (has been in direct contact with a positive case or at a venue with confirmed community spread on same day) they have to isolate as do their household contacts and workplace contacts.

So If you are deemed a close contact your hosuemates and anyone you have had close contact from the expsoure point will also be put into isolation for full 14 days. Casual contats on the other had are asked to test and isolate until a negative result.

NSW doesnt use same language as Victoria but that doesnt mean we let identified close contacts wander the community freely.

If NSW approach was as useless as the otehr states like to imply, then we would have seen Melbourne style spread which has never happened.

QR code usage has been much more common place in NSW for months before Vic or Qld had a system. Most venues had a private QR system since May, before switching over toi the givernment variant in Dec. Compliance with electronic check is is anectotedly much higher in NSW than Qld.

One could easily argue Qld needed bettter testing numbers to compensate for poorly kept customer records. They had to lock the whole fo greater Brisbane down because they did not have nearly complete records of whom had been at the exposure venues.

 

[jakeseven7]

Big day for NSW tomorrow with QLD set to announce their border restriction update.

Fingers crossed they follow VIC and open up!

 

[Lynda2475]

Big day for NSW tomorrow with QLD set to announce their border restriction update.

Suspect it will be a non- event,

But really no excuse for Qld not at least refining its restricted zones. Many fot he LGAs currently excluded have been several months without a single case.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Makes sense, but same situation for VIC, blistering heat and holidays but strong testing numbers especially given they didn't have an outbreak as big as Sydney recently. I just think Victorians are more programmed to go and get tested even if its a minor symptom, than any other state!

Yes I fail to see why flu cases would be driving people to be get tested in Vic and not in NSW given that it is rare in both states. Indeed it is pretty rare everywhere in Australia.

Figure 10. Notifications of laboratory confirmed influenza*, 01 January to 15 November 2020, by state or territory and week of diagnosis




Whereas in NSW



Nationally flu cases pretty much disappeared once the pandemic hit.

 

[Gremlin]

That is not strictly true. Where a person is a close contact (has been in direct contact with a positive case or at a venue with confirmed community spread on same day) they have to isolate as do their household contacts and workplace contacts.

Just texted my mate at NSW Health and asked him about this.

"Nah mate. Qld and Vic have implemented this, but only the close contact isolates here unless they start showing symptoms. Then we tap their conatcts" (typo included)

Qld and Vic isolate both primary and secondary contacts. NSW don't isolate secondary contacts. Makes a big difference to controlling spread quickly.

*shrugs*

 

[Lynda2475]

Yes I fail to see why flu cases would be driving people to be get tested in Vic and not in NSW given that is rare in both states.

No one said it was. I said lack of flu and colds circulating would reduce synptoms in community and therefore reduce reasons for testing.

If you removed the 1200+ tests a day related to AO, Vic's numbers arent that much better than NSW. I still maintain fear of strict lockdown is more present in Vic than NSW and the main driver for higher test numbers.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Ooops...

Group of people from Sydney COVID-19 hotspot allegedly visited Parliament House in Canberra​

ACT authorities are investigating a possible COVID-19 breach after receiving reports that a group of people from Sydney's coughberland local government area visited Parliament House.

ACT Health said it was made aware of the potential breach of travel restrictions by the COVID-19 Taskforce at Parliament House and the matter had been referred to ACT Policing.

coughberland LGA is the only remaining Sydney hotspot whose residents are banned from entering the ACT.

A spokesperson from DPS said a group "potentially from a designated COVID-19 affected area of NSW visited the ACT yesterday, against ACT public health directions, and including a visit to Parliament House".

"DPS has been in contact with ACT Health and provided relevant information to authorities as well as undertaking cleaning in line with COVID-safe plans for the building," the spokesperson said.

"The group were asked if they were from a COVID-affected area prior to entering the building.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-01...y-sydney-residents-from-coughberland/13095200

 

[Lynda2475]

Gladys was asked about that visit in this mornings presser she was not aware of it, but also stated that from NSW (and Commonwealths) pov there are no hotspots so its up the ACT to check where visitors are form and enforce their restrictions.

I notice the article states potential (not proven) breach.

I thought ACT police were checking arrivals via road and at airport? Or did they remove these checks now taht tehre is only 1 LGA they consider a risk?

Would be very easy to claim confusion since NSW and COmmonwelath Governments do not recognise any hotspots. I suspect many people do realise there is a difference between Federal Govt and ACT Govt.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

I notice the article states potential (not proven) breach.

Would that not be normal when the matter had been referred to ACT Policing?

 

[RooFlyer]

CommSec Chief Economist Craig James said the gaps between states and territories have been shortened as different strategies to the COVID-19 virus play out economically.
"We began to see compression in the economic rankings in the last quarter, and this has continued in the latest report," Mr James said.
"Queensland, South Australia and Western Australia were the biggest improvers over the past quarter with their success in suppressing the COVID-19 virus appearing to have supported these states' economic performance.
"Victoria and ACT suffered more in their rankings due to the uncertainty and change brought by the pandemic."
The sixth ranking for NSW is its lowest spot in eight years.

The only state you not mentioned is Tasmania, which topped the survey - for the forth survey in a row. Sorry, parochialism is me, but good news deserves some airtime. Was your quote perhaps from a Queensland media source ? From the CommSec web site -note the few bits left out of the above.

For the fourth quarter in a row, Tasmania holds the mantle of the best performing economy. But notably there has been compression in the rankings with little to separate five of the other seven economies. The ACT remains in second spot, ahead of South Australia, in equal third spot with Victoria. Queensland is in fifth sport. NSW and Western Australia are just behind in joint sixth spot from the Northern Territory.

Tasmania has now been on top for four straight surveys – either shared with another economy or in its own right. The second ranking for the ACT maintains its highest ranking for over three years (April 2017). And the joint third ranking for South Australia is its highest position in just over a decade. The equal sixth ranking for NSW is its lowest position for eight years.

 

[RooFlyer]

No one said it was. I said lack of flu and colds circulating would reduce synptoms in community and therefore reduce reasons for testing.

I've had problems with 'misunderstandings' of my posts a lot recently. Usually the goal posts then get moved.

 

[drron]

There are a lot of conditions which give symptoms like Covid apart from colds and flu.One of the problems we have here is that our ED staff are trigger happy when it comes to Covid testing.Our ID consultant says that population wise our hospital has the highest rate of Covid testing of any hospital in Australia.