Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

[jakeseven7]

But the Premiers have all taken health advice that it is super dooper extremely rapidly fast hyper infectious.

A classic example of current world problems... way too many differing opinions, and quite often the outcomes don’t agree with actions, but the spin says they do. Ugh.

Yes data doesn’t change just how the people, the CHO’s interpret it and then how the government spins it.

The WA health advice was from a CHO that was literally hidden from the public for 101 days... with many suspecting and reporting the government was just making it up to suit their own purposes.

The QLD health advice was from a CHO who caused the deaths of multiple NSW residents with completely unjustified border closures to a Government that literally ran an election campaign on keeping NSW out. Cool and objective.

And now yet again we have border restrictions again on our most logistically important state, for one new case. Brilliant.

 

[Must...Fly!]

And now yet again we have border restrictions again on our most logistically important state, for one new case. Brilliant.

But the contact tracers have to catch up!

The system that NSW apparently copies, if you didn't remember

 

[jakeseven7]

I just LOVE it when this guy opens his mouth, clearly the Wagner’s have just paid their yearly donation

But I just suspect the Feds are going to go pedal to the metal on vaccines and just then forget HQ completely... they clearly can’t be bothered touching it...

——

State lockdowns could ‘probably’ be avoided under Qld quarantine proposal​

The acting premier of Queensland claims state lockdowns “probably” would not have happened if there was a dedicated national quarantine system.

Acting Premier Steven Miles, a former health minister, said he was not surprised the virus had breached quarantine in Melbourne, as it had done recently in Brisbane and Perth.

He pointed to the Queensland government’s recent proposal to the federal government to set up quarantine facilities at remote locations such as mining camps.

“I think one thing we can say is that Victoria probably wouldn’t be going into this kind of lockdown if there was dedicated national quarantine facilities,” he said.

As it happened: Victoria records one new case on state’s first day of lockdown as Holiday Inn cluster grows; 2021 Australian Open to proceed with no crowds

Seven new high-risk coronavirus exposure sites have been identified in Melbourne as Victorians begin their first day of a snap five-day lockdown.

www.theage.com.au

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

I just LOVE it when this guy opens his mouth, clearly the Wagner’s have just paid their yearly donation

But I just suspect the Feds are going to go pedal to the metal on vaccines and just then forget HQ completely... they clearly can’t be bothered touching it...

——

State lockdowns could ‘probably’ be avoided under Qld quarantine proposal​

The acting premier of Queensland claims state lockdowns “probably” would not have happened if there was a dedicated national quarantine system.

Acting Premier Steven Miles, a former health minister, said he was not surprised the virus had breached quarantine in Melbourne, as it had done recently in Brisbane and Perth.

He pointed to the Queensland government’s recent proposal to the federal government to set up quarantine facilities at remote locations such as mining camps.

“I think one thing we can say is that Victoria probably wouldn’t be going into this kind of lockdown if there was dedicated national quarantine facilities,” he said.

As it happened: Victoria records one new case on state’s first day of lockdown as Holiday Inn cluster grows; 2021 Australian Open to proceed with no crowds

Seven new high-risk coronavirus exposure sites have been identified in Melbourne as Victorians begin their first day of a snap five-day lockdown.

www.theage.com.au

What’s stopping Qld doing it??? I guess Qld need Federal money and local community buy-in

 

[Princess Fiona]

Why are we being consistently told that these strains are so incredibly contagious then? Resulting in Perth and Brisbane being locked down after just 1 case? Remind me? Has someone not down their homework...?

——

Mutant strains are more infectious, but only by a small amount, respected epidemiologist says​

Respected epidemiologist Catherine Bennett has hosed down some claims about the infectivity of the UK variant virus that has been used to justify several states’ lockdown.

Professor Bennett, Deakin University’s chair of epidemiology, said while the mutant strains of COVID-19 were more infectious, it was only by a degree of a few percentage points.

“We know they’re more infectious, but the data tell us that the difference is between 11 per cent of your close contacts being infected after exposure and 14.7 per cent. So, it’s an increase of what is actually, on average, a low base,” she told ABC’s Weekend Breakfast program this morning.

“That’s what we saw in Queensland and WA: very low or little, or no, transmission beyond those workers. So, this should be manageable.”

As it happened: Victoria records one new case on state’s first day of lockdown as Holiday Inn cluster grows; 2021 Australian Open to proceed with no crowds

Seven new high-risk coronavirus exposure sites have been identified in Melbourne as Victorians begin their first day of a snap five-day lockdown.

www.theage.com.au

It’s fairly widely accepted in medical research that a very small sample size will not give any meaningful or reliable percentages.
I’d say even Prof Bennett would agree with that.

Perhaps if we chose an HQ city and let it loose then we would have something more meaningful to work from?

Where it gets loose it’s about 50% more transmissible and also early data coming out this month showing that it has increased mortality.
Estimated transmissibility and severity of novel SARS-CoV-2 Variant of Concern 202012/01 in England

 

[jakeseven7]

It’s fairly widely accepted in medical research that a very small sample size will not give any meaningful or reliable percentages.
I’d say even Prof Bennett would agree with that.

Perhaps if we chose an HQ city and let it loose then we would have something more meaningful to work from?

Where it gets loose it’s about 50% more transmissible and also early data coming out this month showing that it has increased mortality.
Estimated transmissibility and severity of novel SARS-CoV-2 Variant of Concern 202012/01 in England

Sure but again no real consensus so I wonder therefore how many more city wide lockdowns we will have before the vaccine reaches a critical number of the population.

My guess probably about 10 more based on recent weeks, perhaps more.

 

[Princess Fiona]

Sure, I wonder therefore how many more city wide lockdowns we will have before the vaccine reaches a critical number of the population.

My guess probably about 10 more based on recent weeks, perhaps more.

Who knows ?
Will be interesting to see what the outcome will be if (?when) this variant is found in community transmission in NSW.
My guess is probably about the same measured response as previously.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

It’s interesting how many infectious escapes from the hotels designated for positives (everyone uses different terminology).....my observation, none.

Maybe that’s all they need to do. Get qualified people with the best PPE gear/practice. Or make it more electronic-based surveillance (cameras and fines for opening the door other than for medical examination, to pickup/drop off meals, etc)

 

[zenyattamondatta]

It’s interesting how many infectious escapes from the hotels designated for positives (everyone uses different terminology).....my observation, none.

Maybe that’s all they need to do. Get qualified people with the best PPE gear/practice. Or make it more electronic-based surveillance (cameras and fines for opening the door other than for medical examination, to pickup/drop off meals, etc)

Or just learn to freak out a little less about the occasional inevitable leak with eminently manageable consequences.

 

[jakeseven7]

Who knows ?
Will be interesting to see what the outcome will be if (?when) this variant is found in community transmission in NSW.
My guess is probably about the same measured response as previously.

We will find out shortly no doubt, there have been many HQ breaches in Sydney and will be more so you can test your hypothesis

 

[Princess Fiona]

We will find out shortly no doubt, there have been many HQ breaches in Sydney and will be more so you can test your hypothesis

There have been a few. I have every confidence in Dr Chant and the team to manage them as and when they occur.

 

[jase05]

It’s interesting how many infectious escapes from the hotels designated for positives (everyone uses different terminology).....my observation, none.

Maybe that’s all they need to do. Get qualified people with the best PPE gear/practice. Or make it more electronic-based surveillance (cameras and fines for opening the door other than for medical examination, to pickup/drop off meals, etc)

I have thought the same. Surely if we can do it in the “hot” hotels we can do it in the regular ones as well no matter the cost

 

[Anna]

make it more electronic-based surveillance (cameras and fines for opening the door other than for medical examination, to pickup/drop off meals,

According to a report I saw this morning on the BBC news on SBS, the Holiday Inn spread started when the residents of one room in HQ opened their door simultaneously with the person on the other side of the corridor opening their door, both to collect their meals. Neither of them did anything wrong re door opening. It seems that there was a huge viral load in one room which had 5 people in it, and the virus was able to spread across the corridor into the other person's room.

Interesting too that the BBC said where the people had travelled from, info we never seem to get from Aust media.

Anyway, changing the subject, I just wish the state premiers would have learned by now not to announce their border closures start or end 'from midnight'. It gets so confusing. Why can't they say 11.59pm or 12.01am or even 1am like Qld seems to, so we all know for sure what day they are talking about.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

Or just learn to freak out a little less about the occasional inevitable leak with eminently manageable consequences.

Well perhaps that’s our failing for accepting it as inevitable...again none so far from hotels designated for positives..

 

[33kft]

Or just learn to freak out a little less about the occasional inevitable leak with eminently manageable consequences.

I had to laugh, in a forum where people spend hours going back and forward about which premiers said what, who claimed to be the Gold standard and how it wouldn't happen in their fair state, the words occasional inevitable leak certainly stand out.

For the record, I entirely agree with you. But there are a lot of AFFers who are getting their jollies from jockeying on behalf of their state, a very strange small town syndrome that I wouldn't have ever expected on a forum of frequent travelers. Imagine what the cross section of ordinary people must look like if this forum is meant to be somehow more enlightened about travel and borders.

 

[VPS]

The spoilt, rich nation of Australia. Where else in the world is there enough money that people can literally spend an entire year scared and hiding under the doona. Australia had a chance to shine, and we've proven we have absolutley no idea what we're doing.

How on earth does anyone think that a large nation of 25 million people who live on every corner of the globe can honestly "eradicate" a contagious, fast spreading virus that is so mild 80% of people don't know they've got it? This goal of "zero" virus in the country is absoutley insane, and I cannot believe the general population has fallen for it. "We must listen to the health advise!". Have we ever done this before? If our politicians listened to health advise, do we honestly believe we'd be selling cigarettes? Having the massive level of alcohol consumption that we do? Tollerate people living in squaller in nursing homes? (nobody wanted to listen to "health advise" after that royal commission, did we?).

We have literally gone through an entire pandemic with hospitals empty, ICU beds unused, the death rate at an all time low, doctors careers set back by years, nurses stood down (I'm not even going into the non-health related personal collapse). And for what? So we can say "oooohhhh, no cases today!". Yep, the USA and the UK didn't do well, but that doesn't mean that a handful of clearly traced cases mean we turn into that tomorrow. There are over 200 nations on this planet, and it's funny how we never hear how the rest of them are going. We are just told that Australia is the "gold standard" and we've "smashed the curve". What curve was that again?

My bolding - do you have any facts to prove that 80% of people don't know they've got it. I know 6 people in the UK who have had - all under 40 and they certainly knew they had and were very unwell for several days

 

[blackcat20]

Anyway, changing the subject, I just wish the state premiers would have learned by now not to announce their border closures start or end 'from midnight'. It gets so confusing. Why can't they say 11.59pm or 12.01am or even 1am like Qld seems to, so we all know for sure what day they are talking about.

Victoria's was announced as being from 11.59pm last night.

 

[N860CR]

My bolding - do you have any facts to prove that 80% of people don't know they've got it. I know 6 people in the UK who have had - all under 40 and they certainly knew they had and were very unwell for several days

It’s very prominently published that at least 80% of cases are “asymptomatic”.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

It’s very prominently published that at least 80% of cases are “asymptomatic”.

The BMJ suggests that as of December 2020, 'earlier reports' of 80% being asymptomatic were too high. The actual number is estimated between 17-20% (being asymptomatic): Asymptomatic transmission of covid-19

 

[N860CR]

The BMJ suggests that as of December 2020, 'earlier reports' of 80% being asymptomatic were too high. The actual number is estimated between 17-20% (being asymptomatic): Asymptomatic transmission of covid-19

Highly speculative. And unlikely, given the WHO openly estimates actual case numbers are 10 times higher than published.

The northern beaches “cluster” was good evidence of this, with virtually zero medical intervention required.

Regardless, the point is that this mass panic over a single case and this insane aspiration for “zero” is not practical, required or reasonable.