Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

[dajop]

As long as they can do bulls*** testing on that sewerage.

Might have to eliminate several areas s from such testing though as it would be off the scale, such as Macquarie St in Sydney and Spring St in Melbourne.

 

[Lynda2475]

BBQ man''s infection was gemonically sequenced at the start, that is how they linked him to a positive arrival in SYD HQ. Yes they havent found the missing link between HQ and BBQ Man but they have already ruled out that BBQ man was the source of the Melbourne man who travelled around the Jervis Bay area.

NSW do sequencing for all HQ cases, and have shared these with Vic that's why they know that BBQ man did not infect the Melbourne. And why there is no obvious link between camper man and NSW HQ.

This therefore points to source most likley being a diplomat breaking self iso rules (they arent subjection to same policing as HQ) given that Jervis Bay and Hyams Beach are popular hangouts for Canberran's. Or less likely another case of someone developing Covid after being discharged from HQ (so not testing positive in HQ meaning no sequencing on file) or a maritime breach.

Also there have been Delta cases in Vic HQ (not linked to this case), so its not correct to say Vic hasnt had any Delta prior to camping man. Its just they havent knowingly detected it in the community before now.

Although accoridng to the ärticle below:

"The most likely source of the Delta variant outbreak was the hotel quarantine system, not an unknown source in the community in NSW."

Professor Lewin said it was unlikely the Delta variant was circulating in NSW because about 20 per cent of people who caught it experienced severe symptoms and some would require hospitalisation."

Hotel quarantine, not NSW, most likely source of COVID-19 variant

Health authorities have cast doubt on whether a Victorian family contracted COVID-19 while holidaying in NSW.

www.smh.com.au

Noting that Prof Lewin is a Victroian working for the Doherty institute.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

- as Melbourne would be a single missing link - other sources would require multiple missing links.

How so?

Missing links would need to be an unknown case in HQ, and then they to infect another person who infects camping man.

A single missing link would have to be connected with HQ as in traveller or staff and so easy to check and rule out contact.

This would be the same as if was a HQ breach from any other state.

 

[justinbrett]

How so?

Missing links would need to be an unknown case in HQ, and then they to infect an other person who infects camping man.

A single missing link would have to be connected with HQ as in traveller or staff and so easy to check and rule out contact.

This would be the same as if was a HQ breach from any other state.

So lets say there's a worker or traveller that caught it in MEL HQ. They could have come in direct contact with Delta Zero.

It is not the same as a breach from another state. The vast majority of covid transmission occurs locally. Yes, it's possible it's come from NSW. It's just not very likely. It's probably more likely for there to be an intermediary link (hence multiple links) but still not likely as there's no positive cases in NSW.

Professor Lewin said her strong hypothesis that it's come in through "our hotel quarantine" when asked about the NSW link. I'm pretty sure "our" means Melbourne in that context.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Noting that Prof Lewin is a Victroian working for the Doherty institute.

Why? What possible relevance is that.

She is a very well respected professional.

 

[justinbrett]

Why? What possible relevance is that.

She is a very well respected professional.

View attachment 249761

I think she means she's a Victorian so when she says it probably didn't come from NSW that's not said with an interstate bias.

 

[Lynda2475]

Why? What possible relevance is that.

Its relevant because she has zero motivation for looking to exclude NSW as the source other than fact. There is much Vic bias here, and typically if anyone other than a Victorian gives an example of how things are or can be done better it is dismissed as state rivalry. But you dont generally shoot down other Victorians findings.

She is a very well respected professional.

And I never said otherwise.

I think she means she's a Victorian so when she says it probably didn't come from NSW that's not said with an interstate bias.

Exactly!

 

[lovetravellingoz]

“My strong hypothesis is that it’s coming through an importation from overseas, through our quarantine hotels - that would be the most likely,” Professor Lewin said.

Does not rule out which HQ.

 

[justinbrett]

“My strong hypothesis is that it’s coming through an importation from overseas, through our quarantine hotels - that would be the most likely,” Professor Lewin said.

Does not rule out which HQ.

OUR

 

[lovetravellingoz]

OUR

She did not define "our". Maybe later she will.

Though again I certainly have not said it did or did not arrive via Vic HQ. It is unknown.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

James McCaw, has commented today on some of his comments which were not reported accurately in the media.

 

[justinbrett]

She did not define "our"

It was the context of the question (ie, did it come from NSW).

None of this discussion has been about ruling things in or out, we're talking about the most likely. It's just a fact it's most likely this was acquired locally. Obviously the Victorian Government doesn't want to be responsible for yet another HQ breach, so is peddling the interstate theory.

Time will tell - Professor Lewin said high testing and no cases in SNSW would rule out NSW as a source. That's already been going on. Every further day of zero cases in NSW further reduces the likelihood of this remote theory, and it's already been over two weeks since the supposed transmission.

 

[suze2000]

There is much Vic bias here, and typically if anyone other than a Victorian gives an example of how things are or can be done better it is dismissed as state rivalry.

Really, if you'd been kicked as much as Victoria has in the last year and treated like lepers because of things that are out of your control, you'd be defensive too. We are treated as if it's somehow "our fault" when for 99.99% of us the only thing we've done wrong is choose to live in Vic.

And if you think I'm exaggerating, you should have been standing next to me when the borders came down last year and I arrived in Moama and went into a little sweet shop (mask on) and mentioned I was from Melbourne. The shopkeeper had a look of genuine horror on her face, it was comical. And it wasn't until we reached Armidale a week later that we stopped being called Mexicans and regularly seeing people's concern if they saw us near our car (Vic plates) or mentioned where we were from. After everything we suffered - and I get that for other states it's hard to understand because YOU WEREN'T THERE, living on the numbers every day, huddled in our homes - I think we can be forgiven for being a little over sensitive to the implied criticism that you describe as facts.

 

[Lynda2475]

To get from NSW HQ (all in inner Sydney) to the Jervis Bay camper who did not come to greater Sydney would require intermediary NSW cases and Prof Lewin celarly stated that "unlikely the Delta variant was circulating in NSW because about 20 per cent of people who caught it experienced severe symptoms and some would require hospitalisation."

 

[lovetravellingoz]

"unlikely the Delta variant was circulating in NSW because about 20 per cent of people who caught it experienced severe symptoms and some would require hospitalisation."

= same proposition for all states, including Victoria.

So what the above means is that even if symptomatic people avoided being tested, that someone would eventually need to present for treatment if enough cases occurred. That would limit "Delta in the Wild" to a relatively short timeframe. ie Days to weeks. Note that with two weeks already elapsed with the West Melbourne Cluster that no one has yet been hospitalised.


Though Delta " does not have to have been circulating "in the Wild" for Camperman to have not been infected from a from a Vic HQ Breach of importation from overseas, through our quarantine hotel system.

My strong hypothesis is that it is coming through and importation from overseas, through our quarantine hotel system. That would be most likely. Resequencing every single positive to take it in the hotel quarantine system, but we can only successfully get to know the information in 70- 80 per cent [of cases]. It happens around the country. So there are 20 per cent of people who are positive and we do not have a genetic barcode for. So that is my strongest hypothesis."​

​

"It would be most unlikely to have mutated in Australia. These two variants, Kappa and Delta, are related, they were both originally described in India, but they are very different. We have virtually no transmission here, we have tiny numbers, so would not have mutated in Australia, it would be a separate importation."​

Let us look at the timeline:

• Camperman drove to NSW on 19th May.
• First case of the new Kappa outbreak reported on 25th May. Same day Camperman reports first being symptomatic.
  • So Camperman likely to have been infected between 16th May and 24th May.
  • (Wollert Man was reported on 12th May)
• Lockdown did not commence till midnight 27 May.

So prior to Camperman leaving for NSW people could freely travel to and from Victoria:

• So nothing at all to have prevented a person doing HQ in any jurisdiction, or even NZ, and having been a returned traveller on completing their quarantine and then travelled to Vic where they had either:
  • had a very long incubation period
  • or was an undetected breach, and turned positive after leaving
• Or was an undetected other breach, including staff, nearby people (ie remember that rope that separated HQ Travellers from the public), who infected a person who then travelled to Victoria, or who travelled themselves.
• Or yes it could have been a Vic HQ breach

​

Professor Sutton says the Delta variant might have originated in Melbourne somewhere but he can't be sure.​

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He says that variant "has not been spreading for months, it has only been spreading for days or weeks".​

​

​

​

No Cookies | Herald Sun

Breaking News from Melbourne and Victoria | Herald Sun

www.heraldsun.com.au

VARIANT LIKELY LEAKED FROM HOTEL QUARANTINE​

A hyper-infectious variant of Covid-19 discovered in Melbourne this week would not have mutated in Australia and is likely to have leaked from hotel quarantine, health experts say.

Leading infections diseases expert Professor Sharon Lewin, the director of the Doherty Institute, said genomic testing of all positive cases in hotel quarantine across the country was done but no match had yet been found.

She said it wasn’t always possible to identify the “barcode” for every patient case, however, with about 20 per cent not identifiable.

There had been suspicion that the Delta strain that is causing alarm in Victoria could have been related to a case in NSW in April, but Prof Lewin and chief health officer Prof Brett Sutton said there was currently no close genomic match between the interstate cases.

Infections founds in hotel quarantine in every are collected and mapped, but issues with sample sizes and other difficulties lead to about 80 per cent of these being fully sequenced.

A testing surge is under way in the holiday town of Jervis Bay, where the West Melbourne family visited, while authorities probe for a link.

“My strong hypothesis is that it’s come in through an importation from overseas, through our quarantine hotel system, that would be the most likely,” Prof Lewin said.

“These two variants, Kappa and Delta, are related. We have virtually no transmission here, we have tiny tiny numbers so it would not have mutated in Australia. It would be a separate importation.”

If the variant has come through hotel quarantine, it is not yet known which state the virus may have escaped from.

Prof Lewin said two strains of the virus that were thought to have mutated in India, known as the Kappa and Delta variants, were related and about 50 per cent more infectious than previous strains.

“I think that, in a way, it’s super lucky that we are doing a lot of testing and found it,” she said.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Update of dbRaevn's Graphic for 5th June ( PG Rated )

 

[RooFlyer]

Update of dbRaevn's Graphic for 5th June ( PG Rated )

Now I know why its called the spew-graphic.

 

[RooFlyer]

Poor fellow, my fellow state.

Victoria has just entered its 17th consecutive 'state of emergency declaration. Victoria has been in a 'State of Emergency' since March 16, 2020, when it was announced that it would last for four weeks, to 'flatten the curve'. So sad.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

OUR

Watch the video where she made the referrenced comment and then adds to it, and especially at the 1.09 mark

"We cannot say it was a quarantine leak. "We cannot say where that might have happened"

Professor Sharon Lewin thinks the Delta strain escaped hotel quarantine.

Follow the latest news headlines from Australia's most trusted source. Read in-depth expert analysis and watch live coverage on ABC News.

www.abc.net.au

The Doherty Institute is not part of the Vic Government. They perform work in Victoria, but they also have national and international projects and clients.

The Vic Gov is but one client. They also have their own projects.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

I am not sure if this detail on the most recent Kappa Case in Victoria was mentioned earlier in the thread:

​

Master Builders Victoria confirmed that a cleaner who was working on a ProBuild construction site at 100 Queen Street in Melbourne tested positive to the virus.​

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The cleaner was a subcontractor and according to the organisation and the construction union, solely worked at that site.​

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Chief Executive Officer Rebecca Casson said it was the first positive case of COVID-19 on a construction site since September 2020.​