Bali Flights Cancelled due to Lewotobi Volcano Nov. 2024

[Harrison_133]

Mods, it might be useful to turn this into a general Bali / Volcano thread?

Jetstar currently anticipate that tomorrow's flights will operate as scheduled and plan to operate at least two additional return flights to Bali tomorrow. There will also be a special 787 flight to accomodate affected passengers.

Source: https://www.jetstar.com/au/en/travel-alerts#Impact of volcanic ash on Bali operations

 

[Himeno]

The forecast is surface to FL300. There is a chance an aircraft could get out of DPS prior to the 12/2130Z forecast by heading north and around or over the ash cloud, after that, the airport is within the ash cloud and is likely to close all together.

 

[Chichi122]

Flying out of Adelaide tomorrow morning. Do you think this will be affected?

Post automatically merged: Nov 12, 2024

I am flying out of Adelaide tomorrow morning. Do you think this will be affected?

 

[henrus]

Jetstar currently anticipate that tomorrow's flights will operate as scheduled and plan to operate at least two additional return flights to Bali tomorrow. There will also be a special 787 flight to accomodate affected passengers.

From the 12hr forecast and 18hr forecasts both show continued impacts over Bali.

At this stage Jetstar plans:
An additional flight from MEL as JQ1035 leaving at 5:30pm arriving Bali at 8:30pm with an A321neo. This will return as JQ1036 at 9:25pm arriving MEL +1 6:15am.
Then from SYD JQ1037 at 5pm arriving Bali at 9pm operated by a 787. This will return at JQ1038 at 10:30pm arriving SYD +1 at 7:25am.

VA is showing everything as still scheduled.

 

[Harrison_133]

VA is showing everything as still scheduled.

Notably they haven't scheduled any recovery flights yet. Usually, they would have done so already.

 

[ZacN]

Notably they haven't scheduled any recovery flights yet. Usually, they would have done so already.

Do we think perhaps the ash would be dispersed enough to just fly straight through even if in main flight paths?

Post automatically merged: Nov 12, 2024

Do we think perhaps by tomorrow the ash would be dispersed enough that flights could fly straight through without much disruption even if covering flight paths?

 

[N860CR]

Do we think perhaps the ash would be dispersed enough to just fly straight through even if in main flight paths?

Post automatically merged: Nov 12, 2024

Do we think perhaps by tomorrow the ash would be dispersed enough that flights could fly straight through without much disruption even if covering flight paths?

Probably not for VA/QF/JQ. They are super conservative when it comes to volcanic ash. If the mapping shows a volcanic ash area, they’ll go nowhere near it.

Have a look at the route VA48 took compared to the PK registered aircraft flying DPS-PER

 

[ZacN]

Probably not for VA/QF/JQ. They are super conservative when it comes to volcanic ash. If the mapping shows a volcanic ash area, they’ll go nowhere near it.

Have a look at the route VA48 took compared to the PK registered aircraft flying DPS-PER

So I guess we will just have to keep checking flight statuses and hope for the best!

 

[henrus]

The latest 18hr forecast (released 10mins ago) for 13/0530Z (which is 1pm Bali time) shows a similar surface to FL300 extent meaning tomorrow mornings departures from Australia look all but cancelled.

Virgin has been the most cautious so far and given that their first arrival into DPS tomorrow is 2pm it's safe to say that won't be happening.

 

[ZacN]

The latest 18hr forecast (released 10mins ago) for 13/0530Z (which is 1pm Bali time) shows a similar surface to FL300 extent meaning tomorrow mornings departures from Australia look all but cancelled.

Virgin has been the most cautious so far and given that their first arrival into DPS tomorrow is 2pm it's safe to say that won't be happening.

Love that for me, that’s my flight

 

[Saab34]

Do you think it will

Do you think it will be cleared by Friday?

Post automatically merged: Nov 12, 2024

Do you think flights will be cancelled on Friday?

Who knows.

Just check the BOM Aviation Forecast site, gives you 18 hours of data.

 

[N860CR]

I assume from Brisbane? $330 on the Batik Air flight in the morning…

Love that for me, that’s my flight

 

[ZacN]

I assume from Brisbane? $330 on the Batik Air flight in the morning…

Yeah correct! I’d just hate to book that as well and it also be cancelled, especially if DPS closes due to ash over the airport then I’ll be down even more money and still stuck in the same place Not to mention that would be without checked baggage, price would be more like $450 with checked baggage!

 

[N860CR]

Yeah correct! I’d just hate to book that as well and it also be cancelled, especially if DPS closes due to ash over the airport then I’ll be down even more money and still stuck in the same place Not to mention that would be without checked baggage, price would be more like $450 with checked baggage!

I hear you. I’ve played this game before (getting home though). Ended up driving to Surabaya and flying to Jakarta, KL then Sydney. Booked a few flights that got cancelled, but was able to get the funds back via chargebacks.

 

[Harrison_133]

AirAsia ex PER are starting to cancel/reschedule flights too.

 

[ZacN]

I’ve just checked the Virgin App, looks like the 9:50am from Brisbane has been cancelled. Still waiting for an email with more information regarding rescheduled flights

 

[Harrison_133]

Flying out of Adelaide tomorrow morning. Do you think this will be affected?

Post automatically merged: Nov 12, 2024

I am flying out of Adelaide tomorrow morning. Do you think this will be affected?

JQ125? Departure delayed till 8:30am at this stage.

Jetstar's other early morning departures ex BNE, MEL and SYD have also been delayed 1-2 hours already.

 

[Stuckinbali]

JQ125? Departure delayed till 8:30am at this stage.

Jetstar's other early morning departures ex BNE, MEL and SYD have also been delayed 1-2 hours already.

I’m back in hotel at Bali, virgin flight to Sydney cancelled at 430 pm local time. I’ve since had message from virgin to say they have rebooked my flight on 19rh November. Don’t thing anyone will be coming or going to soon!

 

[Saab34]

JQ125? Departure delayed till 8:30am at this stage.

Jetstar's other early morning departures ex BNE, MEL and SYD have also been delayed 1-2 hours already.

Zero chance. The advisory goes until 1330 local and the zone over the airport.

Often even when the winds have started to shift, is a 24 hour period for that to occur.

Rebooking DPS flights is quite problematic for the airlines as average LFs run the 90s. They would need to add extra flights to bring everyone back. Very often next to no seats when trying to rebook on existing flights.

 

[Himeno]

Do we think perhaps by tomorrow the ash would be dispersed enough that flights could fly straight through without much disruption even if covering flight paths?

The world is divided up into 9 Volcanic Ash Advisory Centers, each operated by the weather forecasting/monitoring agency of the country in which they are based. The VAAC which covers Indonesia is in Darwin and thus part of the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. Any ash clouds within the area covered by the Darwin VAAC, normally from a volcano in that area, but can also be from ash drifting in from other VAAC zones, will be monitored by the Bureau of Meteorology with forecasts released every 6 hours as needed and posted on their website http://www.bom.gov.au/aviation/volcanic-ash/darwin-va-advisory.shtml

Because of the nature of ash, it should be assumed that ash is present within the area listed in a VAAC forecast with no clear paths through that area. (one of the incidents which lead to the creation of the VAACs, BA9 on KUL-PER in 1982, couldn't see anything of concern on their weather radar)