Given that a *lot* of QF WP's that did the match to VA WP did not retain, even given instant elite benefits, I cannot see a mass exodus.
I've had many conversations with people over on Milepoint about why people on UA who have 1K or GS with them, don't make the switch (AA did offer an EXP match for UA elites last year briefly).
My argument was "you've been given the golden ticket, and all you need to do to ramp up your points is fly more and move your UA credit card to an AA card (the USA has dozens of good CC earners on both programs).
The general response was "but we've got a butload of points with UA". My counter argument was never met though which was "well, you have elite with UA for 12-18 months so move paid travel to AA, then burn your UA points whilst you still have elite benefits".
Some flyers (there and here) have legitimate reasons they can't switch, moreso in the USA due to their home/regional town being a hub for UA or AA which is understandable, but the majority of people I posed this question to were not, and had no compelling reason to stay with UA (even less so when I saw them constantly complaining on FB and Milepoint about how cough UA's treatment of 1K's was). The other argument (once again, by one or two people only) was that UA and *A had better connections to places they fly to regularly (as in more than 5-10 times a year, internationally) for business. That also makes perfect sense.
So there's no real logic to loyalty it seems. I doubt an influx of QF people will happen to VA. We are a small ecosystem here on AFF, and definitely not the normal client base of QF. As has been mentioned in a lot of places, the removal of 'budget' JASA's etc from the online system will go unnoticed by most (just as the loyalty bonus changes will; but I got in 2 of 'em in the past month thanks to AA, just before the change ).
I've had many conversations with people over on Milepoint about why people on UA who have 1K or GS with them, don't make the switch (AA did offer an EXP match for UA elites last year briefly).
My argument was "you've been given the golden ticket, and all you need to do to ramp up your points is fly more and move your UA credit card to an AA card (the USA has dozens of good CC earners on both programs).
The general response was "but we've got a butload of points with UA". My counter argument was never met though which was "well, you have elite with UA for 12-18 months so move paid travel to AA, then burn your UA points whilst you still have elite benefits".
Some flyers (there and here) have legitimate reasons they can't switch, moreso in the USA due to their home/regional town being a hub for UA or AA which is understandable, but the majority of people I posed this question to were not, and had no compelling reason to stay with UA (even less so when I saw them constantly complaining on FB and Milepoint about how cough UA's treatment of 1K's was). The other argument (once again, by one or two people only) was that UA and *A had better connections to places they fly to regularly (as in more than 5-10 times a year, internationally) for business. That also makes perfect sense.
So there's no real logic to loyalty it seems. I doubt an influx of QF people will happen to VA. We are a small ecosystem here on AFF, and definitely not the normal client base of QF. As has been mentioned in a lot of places, the removal of 'budget' JASA's etc from the online system will go unnoticed by most (just as the loyalty bonus changes will; but I got in 2 of 'em in the past month thanks to AA, just before the change ).