Breaking the deadlock - Election 2010

[brett-au]

Okay. So just like a good game of footy, we are neck and neck in the last quarter (or in the final 10 minutes if you prefer). And nobody likes a draw.

Seeing that Libs/Nat and Greens will never happen, does anyone see it being possible that Labour and Nats may form a new coalition to govern for 2011? I see 7 Nat seats according to ABC.net.au. That should give them enough to get over the line.

I'm actually curious if Libs/Nat could actually break up. The in-fighting got pretty fierce when Malcom was pushing for an ETS.

Any other (better) suggestions?

 

[coyote25]

It has happened at a state level a long time ago in Victoria but the Nats are rusted onto the Libs these days plus they did very well overall so probably not going to happen in the foreseeable future.

Only chance is WA Nat who beat Tuckey might be a cross bencher indirectly helping ALP. If ALP somehow wins Brisbane (unlikely) I think they will form a government.

Rural independents seem to want NBN add to fact modern Libs usefully rip services from country area under user pays principles gives ALP some chance. This could go on for a long time.

Short term Abbott government with a Senate pushing climate change legislation and blocking most things should see rosters coming home for Libs if the ALP runs same oppose everything play book as Tony. Interesting times

 

[serfty]

Are you hoping/praying?

Note there are four parties forming the "Coalition".

Currently they are:

• 42: Liberal
• 21: Liberal National Party of Queensland
• .7: The Nationals
• .1: CLP - The Territory Party

 

[oz_mark]

I expect it will come down to negotiations with the Independents. On thing Abbott has successfully done, is bring unity to his own party and the coalition.

It will be interesting to see, regardless of which party persuades the independents, how they will end up filling the position of Speaker.

 

[nlagalle]

It will be interesting to see, regardless of which party persuades the independents, how they will end up filling the position of Speaker.

Well the speaker effectively means one less seat - so 149. therefore 75 votes passes. their no.76 is the speaker.

 

[serfty]

Been sitting in the SYD JL for an hours or so this morning with Skychannel sounding in the background.

They have been calling the three non party aligned "The Country Independants".

 

[oz_mark]

Well the speaker effectively means one less seat - so 149. therefore 75 votes passes. their no.76 is the speaker.

So if you do a deal with some independents, so you have a slender majority, do you

a) choose from your side (=smaller majority), with the risk that the indepenents might sometimes vote against you
b) choose someone from the opposition?

 

[nlagalle]

So if you do a deal with some independents, so you have a slender majority, do you

a) choose from your side (=smaller majority), with the risk that the indepenents might sometimes vote against you
b) choose someone from the opposition?

I'd say they will have a lib as the speaker. no way would an ind, go for speaker. And i believe the speaker has to be from the government side.

And they will need to have some sort of charter with the independants to make it work. the GG has to approve such a deal from memory.

There will be that backroom discussion this week. My guess is they will side with Tony in the end. They are from the same side of politics at the end of the day.

 

[dajop]

What I find interesting, whoever forms government, come July when the new senate comes into place, how on earth are they going to govern? Having to negotiate with fairly conservative independents in the lower house and the greens in the upper house. Fun times ahead :!:

 

[pauly7]

Been sitting in the SYD JL for an hours or so this morning with Skychannel sounding in the background.

They have been calling the three non party aligned "The Country Independants".

Yes... Sky news is like no news on roids. I have a enquiry in with QF to possibly change it to ABC24... Not holding my breath!

 

[lilypage]

turned out quite alright... oh well imo

 

[medhead]

I'd say they will have a lib as the speaker. no way would an ind, go for speaker. And i believe the speaker has to be from the government side.

And they will need to have some sort of charter with the independants to make it work. the GG has to approve such a deal from memory.

There will be that backroom discussion this week. My guess is they will side with Tony in the end. They are from the same side of politics at the end of the day.

One of the so called country independents has already said he will not work with barnaby. I think it is highly unlikely that those independents will go with the Libs. (except maybe katter).

The only approval that the GG gets is they have to believe that a majority government can be formed.

As for speaker katter would be one choice. I don't think it will be a Liberal because the speaker would have to accept the role. For the same reason that one side would want a speaker from the other side. The other side would reject the honour. The speaker can be any member of the house.

In terms of nat lib splits there is also the example of kaylene maywald in south australia.

 

[drron]

One of the so called country independents has already said he will not work with barnaby. I think it is highly unlikely that those independents will go with the Libs. (except maybe katter).

The only approval that the GG gets is they have to believe that a majority government can be formed.

As for speaker katter would be one choice. I don't think it will be a Liberal because the speaker would have to accept the role. For the same reason that one side would want a speaker from the other side. The other side would reject the honour. The speaker can be any member of the house.

In terms of nat lib splits there is also the example of kaylene maywald in south australia.

Yes but didn't she get shafted at this years election-that may play upon the mind of the independents.They are Ex-nats so not really friendly to the coalition.however they do represent rural electorates and quite possibly quite a few who voted for them would not like the idea of the supporting Julia.Personally I am hoping Julia gets across the line-then she will cop the flak.

 

[medhead]

Yes but didn't she get shafted at this years election-that may play upon the mind of the independents.They are Ex-nats so not really friendly to the coalition.however they do represent rural electorates and quite possibly quite a few who voted for them would not like the idea of the supporting Julia.Personally I am hoping Julia gets across the line-then she will cop the flak.

I'm not sure that shafted is the right word. Ignoring Abbott's distortion of figures more people voted ALP first than for any other party. Abbott wants to join 3 parties together to claim more first votes. But if we take that to the logical conclusion we see that 1.4 million more people voted 1 for any party but the coalition parties.

Those independents have also been treated terribly by the national party. So I don't think former associations are indicative of a bias to the coalition. Take Katter as well he stands for certain things and I expect people in his electorate want him to pursue those issues regardless of party.

 

[Keith009]

I'm a bit iffy that the INDs would actually support a Labor government. They might like individual ALP policies (just like I might find individual Green policies agreeable even if i find the entire party to be an odious cabal) but in their totality, they have on the whole rather conservative values and outlooks with equally conservative support bases. Politically, it would be very hard for them to sell the proposition of returning Labor to power to their constituents. I fervently hope I'm proven wrong though.

drron - I actually disagree that a Labor minority government is necessarily a bad thing for the ALP. VIC Labor formed a minority government with the support of conservative INDs after the 1999 election, and was returned in a landslide in 2002. I can't remember the exact make-up of the upper house, but I suppose the difference was that they didn't have minor parties there until certain electoral changes leading up to 2006. So long as any agreement with the INDs and/or the GRNs extends beyond confidence and supply to specific policies and concessions, if indeed we manage to get to that stage, I think Julia will do alright.

I'm not sure that shafted is the right word. Ignoring Abbott's distortion of figures more people voted ALP first than for any other party. Abbott wants to join 3 parties together to claim more first votes. But if we take that to the logical conclusion we see that 1.4 million more people voted 1 for any party but the coalition parties.

Another factor to note is that first term governments usually do it tough come re-election. This was quite the case when the Howard government faced its first re-election. But unlike the first term Howard government, Labor didn't enjoy quite the same buffer to withstand any more than a uniform 2% swing without losing its majority. Keating and Labor were reduced to a rump at the 1996 election. The 2007 election may look like a landslide because of the number of seats changing hands, but Labor went into the election so far behind after the 2004 Latham debacle, and numerically it was only a very narrow win. Compounded of course by the toxicity of Rudd's dumping (much as I far prefer Julia - I do hope she stays on in some shape or form for a long time) and the subsequent leaks.

 

[serfty]

The exact state of play has not yet been determined and until it has, no public commitment is likely.

There may be one two more seats than the three or four noted that are still to be decided - it is quite possible it won't finish at 73, 73 & 4.

Check the 2007 results (click here), seat by seat, and note the distribution of pre-poll and postal votes (look for "First Preferences By Vote Type").

If this were to be repeated for this election in the 'closest' current division ("Hasluck") then that seat will be won by Ken Wyatt.

Also keep a lookout for Corangamite as on the same basis, Darren Cheesman may still have some sleepless nights ahead.

 

[Keith009]

The Libs usually do very well in pre-polls and postals, and this time that trend would be amplified by the leaks in the 2nd week.

 

[medhead]

I'm a bit iffy that the INDs would actually support a Labor government. They might like individual ALP policies (just like I might find individual Green policies agreeable even if i find the entire party to be an odious cabal) but in their totality, they have on the whole rather conservative values and outlooks with equally conservative support bases. Politically, it would be very hard for them to sell the proposition of returning Labor to power to their constituents. I fervently hope I'm proven wrong though.

I guess I'm not prepared to rule out the possibility outright. Especially after seeing the full on fighting between Windsor and Bananaby on election night. Also Oakshot's comments last night suggest he might at least consider the ALP. It does seem that regional infrastructure is an important thing for those country IND. It also seems that the ALP offers better on some things like NBN and would have more room to move to something that might be a greater compromise towards the Liberal plan. Whereas the Liberals have no room to move to improve their plan given all the comments about not wasting money.

Of course I defer to your superior knowledge of these things.

BTW just saw Abbott on the news, does that guy have any shame. They attack Gillard for sucking up on election night, but Abbott seems to have his head shoved firmly in their backsides. Suddenly he doesn't like the nasty things that happen in parliament, just don't mention the political coughry that he has engaged in, possibly against the very independents in question.

 

[Keith009]

I guess I'm not prepared to rule out the possibility outright. Especially after seeing the full on fighting between Windsor and Bananaby on election night. Also Oakshot's comments last night suggest he might at least consider the ALP. It does seem that regional infrastructure is an important thing for those country IND. It also seems that the ALP offers better on some things like NBN and would have more room to move to something that might be a greater compromise towards the Liberal plan. Whereas the Liberals have no room to move to improve their plan given all the comments about not wasting money.

I agree, I don't think the possibility can be ruled out, especially given what happened in VIC in 99. And indeed I'd personally wholeheartedly WELCOME the return of the Labor government of course! I just think the INDs are caught between a rock and a hard place on this one. Abbott has said he's willing to move on broadband - though reports of this vary from a slight modification of the Coalition's policy to an outright backflip leading to support of NBN.

I also tend to think that the INDs will provide for a stable government, whichever side takes power - this is their one big shot at making a difference and getting something back for their electorates, they aren't likely to act recklessly and screw it up.

Interesting to see what's going to happen in the remaining tight seats!

 

[wmetz]

Thanks for link 2007. My question is the seat of Brisbane. it shows thousands of absent and early votes not counted yet. IS that correct, as if so, then using 2007 the
result can change. What your opinions???