Breaking the deadlock - Election 2010

[medhead]

I agree, I don't think the possibility can be ruled out, especially given what happened in VIC in 99. I just think they're caught between a rock and a hard place on this one. Abbott has said he's willing to move on broadband - though reports of this vary from a slight modification of the Coalition's policy to an outright backflip leading to support of NBN.

I also tend to think that the INDs will provide for a stable government, whichever side takes power - this is their one big shot at making a difference and getting something back for their electorates, they aren't likely to act recklessly and screw it up.

Interesting to see what's going to happen in the remaining tight seats!

Supporting the NBN would be a massive backflip given the line that it is a big waste of money. Given the poor performance on economics during the election surely that would totally alienated those who supported them for committing to not do the NBN. I would love to see that.

Windsor has some good experience in this type of situation I think he would probably do a good job. Interesting times indeed.

 

[nlagalle]

I'm a bit iffy that the INDs would actually support a Labor government. They might like individual ALP policies (just like I might find individual Green policies agreeable even if i find the entire party to be an odious cabal) but in their totality, they have on the whole rather conservative values and outlooks with equally conservative support bases. Politically, it would be very hard for them to sell the proposition of returning Labor to power to their constituents. I fervently hope I'm proven wrong though.

Another factor to note is that first term governments usually do it tough come re-election. This was quite the case when the Howard government faced its first re-election. But unlike the first term Howard government, Labor didn't enjoy quite the same buffer to withstand any more than a uniform 2% swing without losing its majority. Keating and Labor were reduced to a rump at the 1996 election. The 2007 election may look like a landslide because of the number of seats changing hands, but Labor went into the election so far behind after the 2004 Latham debacle, and numerically it was only a very narrow win. Compounded of course by the toxicity of Rudd's dumping (much as I far prefer Julia - I do hope she stays on in some shape or form for a long time) and the subsequent leaks.

Also the labor primary vote in those electorates are very low, some lower than 10%. that would weigh on their minds. Side with labor and they hstand a good chance of being rolled at the next election.

Also Howard in 1998 was the mandate for the GST. He went to the polls to secure is passage (not as a DD election either). Had there been no GST at the front, it may have been no/little swing.

Nick

 

[drron]

QF009,my reason for wanting Julia to win is that I feel it is more likely that the economy will go bad over the next 12 months.In the northern hemisphere they are reporting US housing figures for July the worst month this year,the BBC saying it is likely Europe will see a double dip recession and Bloomberg predicting Asian economies will go backwards in 2011.
If those scenarios play out then as I said I hope Julia is PM and gets the blame(I realise it would not be her fault but in the words of Winston Churchill-"you can never underestimate the intelligence of the electorate").Then Keith you will lose Julia and your poll days will be bleak.
Also dont ever doubt the possibility of Nats(or ex-nats) to side with the ALP.I know from personal experience how some Nats feel about the Libs.However I had revenge when in local government I organised probably the only coalition of the Libs and ALP to deny the Independents(virtually all NP members) power.So funny things do happen in politics.
Also having been in the position of a losing candidate in a doubtful seat after being ahead on polling night I would agree it isnt over yet.I note that the young lib in Longman isnt claiming victory even thopugh it appears he is well ahead.His scrutineers may have noticed something.

 

[Keith009]

Just like in the same way I hope the Greens actually deal with the Coalition (interesting to note here that the Libs are heading for 3rd party status in metro Melbourne) - it would only pave their way to political doom just like the Democrats. And i'm not only referring to helping you lot form government, any perception of an informal Green-Coalition alliance can and should be successfully exploited for electoral gain, both long and short term. Then we only have to focus on electioneering against the Coalition in seats like Dunkley and Corrangamite rather than diverting resources to inner city seats. 21 August - Greens' ads in Melbourne read "Disappointed in Labor but don't want Tony Abbott?", 23 August - Bob Brown goes on record saying he "would be very happy to catch up with Mr Abbott." And don't even get me started on VIC state politics: http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/votes-for-greens-could-go-to-libs-brumby-20100824-13qch.html Greens sleaze has only just begun. /RANT

However I had revenge when in local government I organised probably the only coalition of the Libs and ALP to deny the Independents(virtually all NP members) power.So funny things do happen in politics.

Haha... those sort of 'unholy' coalitions happen more often than you think especially when less is at stake, ie student politics and local council. I was first elected to student union office on the back of a joint Labor Right/Liberal ticket against a broad left coalition, as have many generations of moderate Labor and Liberal student pollies before and after me. At uni where the political landscape is so skewed to the left, this has proven a successful formula to get people with mainstream views elected to representative office.

Even if the ALP loses government, I hope Julia stays around, even if not in elected office. Hand on heart, I reckon she is a truly talented individual (and probably the best parliamentary debater and public speaker I've ever seen - when not straitjacketed by her political minders that is) who can make a significant contribution to the country.

Interesting also to note that Warren Truss has been excluded from negotiations with the INDs - cute.

We'll see, we'll see... At the very least a double dip recession means great airfares and awesome sales - "every cloud..."

 

[codash1099]

Also the labor primary vote in those electorates are very low, some lower than 10%. that would weigh on their minds. Side with labor and they hstand a good chance of being rolled at the next election.



Nick

The Labor vote in some electorates may be low because they ran "dead". That was certainly the case in O'Connor where they knew they couldn't win but made sure Tuckey lost.

 

[Hvr]

QF009,my reason for wanting Julia to win is that I feel it is more likely that the economy will go bad over the next 12 months.In the northern hemisphere they are reporting US housing figures for July the worst month this year,the BBC saying it is likely Europe will see a double dip recession and Bloomberg predicting Asian economies will go backwards in 2011.
If those scenarios play out then as I said I hope Julia is PM and gets the blame(I realise it would not be her fault but in the words of Winston Churchill-"you can never underestimate the intelligence of the electorate").Then Keith you will lose Julia and your poll days will be bleak.

I agree that it seems very likely that there will be a double dip recession and the incumbent PM will cop the blame. It would be interesting to see Tony Abbott deal with it as well Kevin and Julia did.

He would be (justifiably) damned if he tried to introduce a stimulus package given his outrage at the success of the Labor package, therefore I wonder if Abbott would be happy to see hundreds of thousands of Australians out of work and in deep financial trouble? I suspect he might be.

However with the hard right commercial media in Australia he would be hailed as a hero for not spending our money.

 

[Siegfried]

The Labor vote in some electorates may be low because they ran "dead". That was certainly the case in O'Connor where they knew they couldn't win but made sure Tuckey lost.

Well, they do say that every cloud has a silver lining :mrgreen:

 

[drron]

Has Australia got such a good unemployment record?I know Julia and Wayne go around quoting an OECD report that shows that Australia has the lowest unemployment rate of 28 OECD countries.Unfortunately the very same report says that Australia has the second lowest employment rate in those same 28 countries.We look good because so many Australians are not looking for work.
All Kevin and Wayne have done is make it harder for Australia to cope with a second dip.Are the Batt jobs and BER jobs going to be permanent?

 

[NM]

Has Australia got such a good unemployment record?I know Julia and Wayne go around quoting an OECD report that shows that Australia has the lowest unemployment rate of 28 OECD countries.Unfortunately the very same report says that Australia has the second lowest employment rate in those same 28 countries.We look good because so many Australians are not looking for work.
All Kevin and Wayne have done is make it harder for Australia to cope with a second dip.Are the Batt jobs and BER jobs going to be permanent?

Unemployment rates are very much skewed by the definition of "unemployment" used. The US government has come under fire for continually redefining the term. Apparently if they used the same definition as they did 20 years ago, the US would be at something around 18% unemployment, but instead they can report around 10%. So how can we compare historic unemployment rates when the definition keeps changing?

 

[markis10]

From memory you are only unemployed if you are looking to be employed, does that make sense?

 

[NM]

From memory you are only unemployed if you are looking to be employed, does that make sense?

But what about someone who has part-time work (say filling shelves at Woollworths a few nights a week) to keep some food on the table while actively seeking full-time employment? Depending on the number of hours "worked" they may not be included.

But yes, someone who is not seeking employment should not be included in the unemployment stats - nor receive unemployment benefits. For example, Mrs NM is not employed, nor is she seeking employment or receiving any benefits (except Part B of the Family Tax Benefit), so she is rightly not included in any unemployment stats.

 

[medhead]

But what about someone who has part-time work (say filling shelves at Woollworths a few nights a week) to keep some food on the table while actively seeking full-time employment? Depending on the number of hours "worked" they may not be included.

This gets into full-time and part time work definitions. I think part time looking for full time is included in some stats. Another moving target. The last I remember was that Howard change the hours cut off to make the stats look better. But I'm sure both sides have done it. I just can't remember or didn't notice.

 

[medhead]

Has Australia got such a good unemployment record?I know Julia and Wayne go around quoting an OECD report that shows that Australia has the lowest unemployment rate of 28 OECD countries.Unfortunately the very same report says that Australia has the second lowest employment rate in those same 28 countries.We look good because so many Australians are not looking for work.
All Kevin and Wayne have done is make it harder for Australia to cope with a second dip.Are the Batt jobs and BER jobs going to be permanent?

The low employment rate gets into the question of under utilisation of our workforce. This was a key part of the ALP push against middle class welfare and baby bonuses and such because they create a big disincentive to go back to work. Unfortunately, so does our tax system and neither party is looking to reform it.

The recent good news was I pick up in the rate of employment in older Australian's 50+ year old. This has been a national disgrace where employers wouldn't employ older people and it was something of an ALP issue. With this increase maybe they did something useful? Or maybe it is just the result of demographics.

In terms of employment. I think the only certainty is that an Abbott government would can the stimulus measures and have a negative influence on unemployment. (I had another certainty but I just can't remember it. #$@#!!!) Australia is better placed that other countries and I don't see how a second dip will be harder on us given that we are better placed to deal with it.

I would like to know how much better off Australia would be financially if we weren't having to spend money on a war that was supposed to make the world safer but actually did the exact opposite. Even I could predict how that adventure was going to end and I still have to question the wisdom of those who got us involved. (Good thing about this thread is it has helped me re-focus my thoughts on our political parties)

 

[straitman]

Unemployment rates are very much skewed by the definition of "unemployment" used. The US government has come under fire for continually redefining the term. Apparently if they used the same definition as they did 20 years ago, the US would be at something around 18% unemployment, but instead they can report around 10%. So how can we compare historic unemployment rates when the definition keeps changing?

Australia has 'enhanced' the unemployment rate terminology is used a few times over the last 20 or so years :!:

 

[QF WP]

Looks like SkyNews now advising that Teresa Gambaro has won the seat of Brisbane from Arch Bevis.

 

[medhead]

Looks like SkyNews now advising that Teresa Gambaro has won the seat of Brisbane from Arch Bevis.

I thought Arch was gone for all money on Saturday night.

 

[Alanslegal]

ABC.net.au doesn't declare the seat of Brisbane, though looks very grim to ALP in that seat.

Looks like it will end up being 73 to LNP, 72 to ALP and 5 INDs. The INDs will likely side with LNP though Abbott plays chicken with his costings and won't show them; guess if he won't show it, it must mean there's something to hide AFAI concerned.

Anyway, thanks Centrebet, please PAY ASAP!

 

[QF WP]

Updated AEC figures here.

Updated Brisbane seat figures here

It's a pity that the sitting member in Lilley wasn't beaten. I tried my best to oust him. Great to see a school mate of mine came 3rd in the race.

 

[NM]

I tried my best to oust him. Great to see a school mate of mine came 3rd in the race.

Hmm, he comes from a rather large family. And he had a relative in my electorate as well - and also came third. Maybe they are looking to make the party a family affair. And just to complete the "its a small world" image, the new member for Brisbane was the previous member for my electorate, holding it for more than 10 years.

 

[QF WP]

Yes, he certainly does come from a large family (13 children IIRC). Good thing is that they have lived in this Electorate forever (I remember visiting their house in Wavell Heights in the late 70's and remember his sister Natalie).

Hmmm, have to try and find your Electorate now...a brother or sister no doubt.

Ah yes, Peter is a brother...