Brisbane to Honolulu restart possibility???

[Lucass]

Does anyone think Brisbane to Honolulu will recommence services in coming years. The route was previously served by Hawaiian airlines x3 a week, Pre-Covid, but stopped. Surely the market there has only grown & jetstar/Qantas/Hawaiian could be successful on that route nowadays. Anyone else think this could be a good route?

 

[Mattg]

I flew this route on Jetstar back in around 2015.

I do think there's a chance Hawaiian Airlines will restart services once it joins Oneworld and is a Qantas partner. Qantas has enough onward connectivity available through BNE that they could probably fill a 3x weekly service with a mix of O&D and connecting passengers.

No doubt, if HA does return to BNE, it will be with the "assistance" of the QLD taxpayers' "Attracting Aviation Investment Fund".

 

[justinbrett]

I flew this route on Jetstar back in around 2015.

I do think there's a chance Hawaiian Airlines will restart services once it joins Oneworld and is a Qantas partner. Qantas has enough onward connectivity available through BNE that they could probably fill a 3x weekly service with a mix of O&D and connecting passengers.

HA cited the low AUD as one of the main reasons for leaving. This has only got worse.

No doubt, if HA does return to BNE, it will be with the "assistance" of the QLD taxpayers' "Attracting Aviation Investment Fund".

There has been a change in government. It’s yet to be seen whether this fund will continue (the original fund expires this year). I’m not sure it’s likely.

Does anyone think Brisbane to Honolulu will recommence services in coming years. The route was previously served by Hawaiian airlines x3 a week, Pre-Covid, but stopped. Surely the market there has only grown & jetstar/Qantas/Hawaiian could be successful on that route nowadays. Anyone else think this could be a good route?

I don’t think QF will be interested for a while as they have just launched services from MEL. There’s now daily services from either SYD or MEL (both on Sat), plus the HA and JQ services.

I don’t think we’ll see it until the AUD improves. Hawaii hotels have become crazy expensive since covid, even without considering the exchange rate.

 

[Mwenenzi]

Does anyone think Brisbane to Honolulu will recommence services in coming years. The route was previously served by Hawaiian airlines x3 a week, Pre-Covid, but stopped. Surely the market there has only grown & jetstar/Qantas/Hawaiian could be successful on that route nowadays. Anyone else think this could be a good route?

USA airlines have reduced some fights from BNE. Has been an oversupply USA<---->AU
HNL would be a price sensitive market and leisure market. Not much business class traffic paid by an employer

With FJ routes there is competion for QLD to USA, including HNL. FJ can feed from all major AU east coast and NZ airports for NAN-HNL
When FJ becomes a full Oneworld alliance member and starts to use the AAdvantage ffp expect they will get a passenger boost.

A map from the Great Circle Mapper

A map from the Great Circle Mapper

www.gcmap.com

 

[markis10]

USA airlines have reduced some fights from BNE. Has been an oversupply USA<---->AU
HNL would be a price sensitive market and leisure market. Not much business class traffic paid by an employer

Brisbane has increased flights to the USA, not reduced, with the seasonal Delta and AA traffic bring capacity to 135% pre COVID.

Traffic to Dallas exceeds LAX with SFO very close behind suggesting new city pairs are very much viable

 

[Lucass]

Brisbane has increased flights to the USA, not reduced, with the seasonal Delta and AA traffic bring capacity to 135% pre COVID.

Traffic to Dallas exceeds LAX with SFO very close behind suggesting new city pairs are very much viable

I agree 100%. I think the Brisbane market will continue to grow over coming years, Brisbane's population is growing at a very fast rate and we know QLD is very popular for international tourists, not to mention the olympics in 2032 and other events which will definitely make it popular for new route pairings in the future.

 

[justinbrett]

Brisbane has increased flights to the USA, not reduced, with the seasonal Delta and AA traffic bring capacity to 135% pre COVID.

Traffic to Dallas exceeds LAX with SFO very close behind suggesting new city pairs are very much viable

UA cut capacity in BNE after their recent expansion, though yes still more than pre Covid. Though I don’t know what you mean about DFW exceeding LAX. Only AA fly to DFW seasonally. QF and DL fly to LAX, QF year round and DL seasonally.

IMO it’s not BNE that’s the problem, it’s HNL.

Now if QF and HA are allowed to codeshare, particularly for flights from HNL to west coast USA, then there’d definitely be a market. But I’m not sure they’ll get that approval.

 

[markis10]

UA cut capacity in BNE after their recent expansion, though yes still more than pre Covid. Though I don’t know what you mean about DFW exceeding LAX. Only AA fly to DFW seasonally. QF and DL fly to LAX, QF year round and DL seasonally.

DFW was the most popular destination ex BNE, exceeding LAX by 1000 pax with SFO a further 1000 behind. The USA is also the number 1 freight destination for BNE

 

[Mwenenzi]

UA cut capacity in BNE after their recent expansion, though yes still more than pre Covid. Though I don’t know what you mean about DFW exceeding LAX. Only AA fly to DFW seasonally. QF and DL fly to LAX, QF year round and DL seasonally.

IMO it’s not BNE that’s the problem, it’s HNL.

Now if QF and HA are allowed to codeshare, particularly for flights from HNL to west coast USA, then there’d definitely be a market. But I’m not sure they’ll get that approval.

Hawaiian Airlines HA as an independant airline now does not exist. Since purchased, just a brand of AS Alaska. Over time the HA & AS systems will be one.
QF & AS do codeshare some flights.

 

[justinbrett]

DFW was the most popular destination ex BNE, exceeding LAX by 1000 pax with SFO a further 1000 behind.

When?

At a snapshot perhaps, but given DL only started in December and AA only fly seasonally, that statement can't possibly be true as a general statement (which is how you framed it).

Hawaiian Airlines HA as an independant airline now does not exist. Since purchased, just a brand of AS Alaska. Over time the HA & AS systems will be one.
QF & AS do codeshare some flights.

But that was my point. I don't think those approvals will continue, particularly on HA metal to Australia. It would be great if they do.

 

[markis10]

My figures are for the latest available BITRE data.

 

[justinbrett]

My figures are for the latest available BITRE data.

I think you've misread them.

They are for the month of November only.

If we look at October, LAX has 10x the traffic of DFW. I suspect December will beat it as well with the addition of DL. And then once April comes around, DFW will disappear until next summer.

 

[markis10]

I think you've misread them.

They are for the month of November only.

If we look at October, LAX has 10x the traffic of DFW. I suspect December will beat it as well with the addition of DL. And then once April comes around, DFW will disappear until next summer.

Have not misread them, I used the latest figures for the following reasons:

1. It’s a good reflection on like for like, ie year on year monthly traffic where there are not seasonal issues. LAX is down 1000 pax year on year.
2. Unlike October it’s got full month services, the DFW service started Oct 28 so it’s no surprise LAX is 10x that month, in fact it shows how weak LAX is if they are only 10x yet run all month.

 

[justinbrett]

Have not misread them

Then it's worse, you've misrepresented them.

It is quite likely the only month where DFW will exceed LAX.

1. It’s a good reflection on like for like, ie year on year monthly traffic where there are not seasonal issues. LAX is down 1000 pax year on year.

No it's not, it's down 440 pax compared to Nov 23.

Again, in April DFW goes to zero. December we get a whole new carrier for the LAX route to add. I don't know what your point is.

 

[HS-TQE]

I flew this route on Jetstar back in around 2015.

I do think there's a chance Hawaiian Airlines will restart services once it joins Oneworld and is a Qantas partner. Qantas has enough onward connectivity available through BNE that they could probably fill a 3x weekly service with a mix of O&D and connecting passengers.

No doubt, if HA does return to BNE, it will be with the "assistance" of the QLD taxpayers' "Attracting Aviation Investment Fund".

Unlikely that Queensland will come to the party for Honolulu as it's largely an 'outbound' high yield leisure market. It'll be a similar situation to subsidising Brisbane to Bali (ala "why are my taxpayer dollars funding 'troublemakers' to Bali?") or coughet on the social media comments on the News Corp media sites.

With the recent change in government, it's possible that the LNP may not even renew the AAIF program past 2025 and any intending airlines from 2026 onwards would have to stand on its own two feet.

 

[elanshin]

I agree in general right now it's a HNL problem (well USD).
Even the Japanese who loves going to HNL has consistently been running relatively empty to the islands. (Hawaii to the Japanese is what Bali is to Australians).
I wonder how long ANA can keep running losses on their a380s on the route.

As for BNE, it'd make more sense for them to restart MEL - HNL on HA first than BNE. It also doesn't strike me as a place people in Brisbane would be on the top of bucket lists. Gols coast / sunshine coast isnt that far. Bali is closer and cheaper etc.

There's definite growth for Brisbane, but HNL probably isnt it first.

 

[justinbrett]

As for BNE, it'd make more sense for them to restart MEL - HNL on HA first than BNE. It also doesn't strike me as a place people in Brisbane would be on the top of bucket lists. Gols coast / sunshine coast isnt that far. Bali is closer and cheaper etc.

HA never flew to MEL. Only BNE ( & SYD)

 

[elanshin]

HA never flew to MEL. Only BNE ( & SYD)

Oh my bad for some reason i thought they flew MEL before.