Carbon Tax

[drron]

I didn't say the measurements were computer modelling or even the levels.However the effects of those levels is what is modelled.Why although the CO2 levels are still skyrocketing has the warming seemingly tapered off.
Ice melt was going on prior to our exponential use of fossil fuels.EG Glacier bay did not exist when the Inside passage was mapped by Vancouver 250 years ago.It was there in all its glory when seen by John Muir 150 years ago.

 

[connieguy]

I didn't say the measurements were computer modelling or even the levels.However the effects of those levels is what is modelled.Why although the CO2 levels are still skyrocketing has the warming seemingly tapered off.
Ice melt was going on prior to our exponential use of fossil fuels.EG Glacier bay did not exist when the Inside passage was mapped by Vancouver 250 years ago.It was there in all its glory when seen by John Muir 150 years ago.

I see no tapering off. Instead the effects are accelerating as is the amount of CO2 being pumped into the atmosphere.

Here is the rate of growth of CO2 per year. Note the rate of change is accelerating as we build more and more fossil fuel power stations and create more and more vehicles, including aircraft that also burn fossil fuels for energy:

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/#mlo_growth

As can be seen from the measured CO2 levels, it is clear the growth rate is accelerating:

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/#mlo_full

Here is what is happening to the Arctic Cap volume. Note the increased rate of ice volume loss since 2000. 1,000 cubic KM is a lot of ice and the Arctic Ice Cap is loosing about 3 times that a YEAR.

http://psc.apl.washington.edu/wordp...e_volume/BPIOMASIceVolumeAnomalyCurrentV2.png



Note the side ticks are in units of 1,000 km^3. Some day soon, when enough ice has melted and it can't maintain the frozen tundra Methane stores, a LOT of Methane will be released, which will not be a good event.

As for global temperatures, here is the current picture:

http://www.giss.nasa.gov/research/n...GISS_annual_temperature_anomalies_running.gif


Should you be concerned? Yes. Very concerned.

 

[drron]

Go back to your Antarctic ice samples.The rate of warming was mirroring the rate of CO2 rise.Although still rising it is now at a slower rate than the CO2 rise.
Again-why are we having so many record low events around the world.The IPCC reports predicted they would be less.So testing their hypothesis doesn't seem to be yielding the right results.
Of course arctic Ice is not the major reservoir of ice.So you can make all the alarmist predictions you would like with those facts.Antarctic Ice is much more important.Although there is ice melt around the Peninsula,the Ross shelf is growing.

 

[gumpy]

Should you be concerned? Yes. Very concerned.

Don't take this in the wrong way I personally wouldn't want the Methane to be released as that is a whole different kettle of fish, but are you flying less to help this?

Also how much will the Carbon PPM have to rise to for the Methane to be released?

 

[connieguy]

Don't take this in the wrong way I personally wouldn't want the Methane to be released as that is a whole different kettle of fish, but are you flying less to help this?

Also how much will the Carbon PPM have to rise to for the Methane to be released?

This link is 12 months old but I suggest you will understand that the process has already started and is believed to be partly responsible to the Arctic experiencing a higher rate of temperature rise than the rest of the world.

Methane releases from Arctic shelf may be much larger and faster than anticipated

As for the cooling events, as I understand it, the warmer air in the Arctic generated winds that drove the colder air from around the Arctic toward the Equator.

Here is a good site with a lot of real measurement data (some very close to real time) on the Arctic, which because of the increasing atmospheric Methane levels is getting a LOT of attention, as it should. If we lose the Arctic Ice Cap and the rate of Methane release increases quite a bit, what happens in the rest of the world will not really matter too much. You may call that alarmist. I call it being aware that the Canary In the Coal Mine (the Arctic Ice Cap and all the ice it contains, that stabilizes Arctic air and ocean temperatures, that in turn keeps the Arctic Methane frozen) may soon be dead.

As for my flying, I do offset it.

 

[rechoboam]

Given the imminent methane release I am very happy with my decision to splurge on J for all longhaul flights as long as I can afford it. Gotta make the most of it while we can.
When the big methane cloud lands will it smell like a cow's posterior?
And has anyone modeled the effects of the Gillard tax on this methane movement?
You "offset" flying? how does that work exactly?

 

[connieguy]

Go back to your Antarctic ice samples.The rate of warming was mirroring the rate of CO2 rise.Although still rising it is now at a slower rate than the CO2 rise.

That is because the temp rise is now lagging the CO2 rise because the rate of CO2 increase is something that as far as we are aware, the planet has never experienced. The models are attempting to understand what the final warm temps will be. From what I have read, even if we had a magic machine that could strip out enough CO2 to take us back to 1990 levels, warming would still continue for around 100 years. So there is a lot of inertia in this system.

Again-why are we having so many record low events around the world. The IPCC reports predicted they would be less. So testing their hypothesis doesn't seem to be yielding the right results.

The averaged GLOBAL temperature is rising and rising faster than the models predicted. The spot lows are being caused, as I understand what I have read, by the warming Arctic, which is forcing cold air from sub Arctic land masses toward the Equator.

Of course arctic Ice is not the major reservoir of ice. So you can make all the alarmist predictions you would like with those facts. Antarctic Ice is much more important. Although there is ice melt around the Peninsula,the Ross shelf is growing.

If half the Greenland Ice sheet melts, sea levels will increase something like 10 meters. Overall Antarctica is loosing ice volume. If all the worlds ice melts, it will be like living on another planet.

 

[connieguy]

Given the imminent methane release I am very happy with my decision to splurge on J for all longhaul flights as long as I can afford it. Gotta make the most of it while we can.
When the big methane cloud lands will it smell like a cow's posterior?
And has anyone modeled the effects of the Gillard tax on this methane movement?
You "offset" flying? how does that work exactly?

You pay someone to do this. They lose their eyebrows and the Methane gets burned:

YouTube - ‪Burning Methane from Frozen Lake‬‏

 

[drron]

As for the cooling events, as I understand it, the warmer air in the Arctic generated winds that drove the colder air from around the Arctic toward the Equator.

However in 2005 this is what the warmists were saying-

A warmer Arctic will also affect weather patterns and thus food production around the world. Wheat farming in Kansas, for example, would be profoundly affected by the loss of ice cover in the Arctic. According to a NASA Goddard Institute of Space Studies computer model, Kansas would be 4 degrees warmer in the winter without Arctic ice, which normally creates cold air masses that frequently slide southward into the United States. Warmer winters are bad news for wheat farmers, who need freezing temperatures to grow winter wheat. And in summer, warmer days would rob Kansas soil of 10 percent of its moisture, drying out valuable cropland.

and USA today earlier this year published a list of record high and low temperatures for each state-
USATODAY.com
Interesting that only 1 state has had a record high temperature this century + 4 in the 1990s.But 1 state had a record low temp this year and 6 in the 1990s.

 

[connieguy]

However in 2005 this is what the warmists were saying-

and USA today earlier this year published a list of record high and low temperatures for each state-
USATODAY.com
Interesting that only 1 state has had a record high temperature this century + 4 in the 1990s.But 1 state had a record low temp this year and 6 in the 1990s.

It is called GLOBAL WARMING. The Earth has a lot of surface area and sure some areas will be higher and some lower.

Here is another link to the latest global temperature measurments done by 4 very different countries and their weather people:
http://www.giss.nasa.gov/research/n...justed_annual_temperature_anomalies_final.gif

More info here:
NASA GISS: Research News: Despite Subtle Differences, Global Temperature Records in Close Agreement

 

[Oneworldplus2]

Crazy weather not climate change - Professor Neville Nicholls
(Article here)

THE remarkable weather extremes of the past decade, including this year's Queensland and Victorian floods, were not caused by global warming, according to one of Australia's most eminent climate scientists.

Speaking at a major international earth science conference in Melbourne, Professor Neville Nicholls said such extremes as the heat wave in Victoria that accompanied the Black Saturday bushfires, similar heat in Pakistan and Russia, and the devastating tornados that have ripped through parts of the US this year are, in many cases, unprecedented in modern times.

But global warming couldn't be blamed, he said.

"Whenever these things happen people ask 'was it caused by global warming?'," Prof Nicholls told the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics conference.

"The short answer is no.

 

[drron]

It is called GLOBAL WARMING. The Earth has a lot of surface area and sure some areas will be higher and some lower.

Here is another link to the latest global temperature measurments done by 4 very different countries and their weather people:
http://www.giss.nasa.gov/research/n...justed_annual_temperature_anomalies_final.gif

More info here:
NASA GISS: Research News: Despite Subtle Differences, Global Temperature Records in Close Agreement

Again you really aren't listening.I actually believe in Global warming.I just dont think the consequences have been proven.
As well I am not sure such things as a Carbon tax will doi anything to help the earth.
There have been predictions made by the Doomsayers-eg the IPCC-and those predictions are proving inaccurate.This makes me suspicious that all is not settled-as it hardly ever is in Science.
And by the way-dont shout,it's rude

 

[rechoboam]

Would still love to know how the "offsetting" works.

 

[markis10]

This topic is starting to get a little heated , at least it's OT!

 

[connieguy]

Crazy weather not climate change - Professor Neville Nicholls

From the article, with no selective quoting. Please note the Professor has no doubts that Global Warming is real and is effecting our weather.

"THE remarkable weather extremes of the past decade, including this year's Queensland and Victorian floods, were not caused by global warming, according to one of Australia's most eminent climate scientists.

Speaking at a major international earth science conference in Melbourne, Professor Neville Nicholls said such extremes as the heat wave in Victoria that accompanied the Black Saturday bushfires, similar heat in Pakistan and Russia, and the devastating tornados that have ripped through parts of the US this year are, in many cases, unprecedented in modern times.


But global warming couldn't be blamed, he said.


"Whenever these things happen people ask 'was it caused by global warming?'," Prof Nicholls told the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics conference.


"The short answer is no. They were all caused by well-known and reasonably well-understood weather and climate events, even with some predictability."


While global warming doesn't cause the weird weather, the professor acknowledges its part in making some of them more severe.
"Global warming doesn't produce these events, however, it's pretty hard to avoid the conclusion that global warming has exacerbated the frequency and the intensity of these heat waves," the Monash University professorial fellow said.


But this year's floods in Australia do not fit into that picture.


"It is much harder to make the connection to link those floods in Queensland in early 2011 to global warming," he said.


"There was a particular and very unusual meteorological sequence that led to those floods and it is very difficult to work out if climate change is exacerbating that situation at all."


The culprit here is a record-breaking version of La Nina, the relative of the drought-causing El Nino.


"This is the largest recorded La Nina event seen in 120 years of recorded history," Prof Nicholls said. The only one that comes close was in 1917."


Prof Nicholls' observations draw the inevitable question as to whether global warming has in turn caused the latest version of La Nina to be especially strong.


The answer to that evades him.


"We don't really know," Prof Nicholls said."

 

[connieguy]

Would still love to know how the "offsetting" works.

Program Overview

 

[connieguy]

This topic is starting to get a little heated , at least it's OT!

Not heated at all. Just a good discussion on the real measurements that show our world is changing.

 

[rechoboam]

Program Overview

So you stop someone else burning biomass but you continue doing it and it's all fine?

 

[Sprucegoose]

Can someone please explain how a 'tax' fixes the environment?

i think it is wealth redistribution - communism failed - the lefties and reds want another crack.........

 

[connieguy]

Can someone please explain how a 'tax' fixes the environment?

How? Simple. Just tax carbon and by doing that make carbon based energy generation more expensive and encouraging the development of carbon free energy generation sources.

How would you force that to happen? Yes I did say Force as otherwise it will not happen and instead just be business as normal. CO2 will continue to increase, the oceans will become more acidic, the Arctic ice cap will continue to lose mass, more and more frozen Methane will melt and feed further global temperature increases. BTW none of this is theory. It is all very real and very measurable. The only way to break that positive feed cycle is to develop and bring on line as quickly as we can, non carbon based energy generation systems, which will cost more per unit of energy generated than non taxed carbon based energy generation systems. Without increasing the cost of carbon based energy generation, via a carbon tax, non carbon based energy systems will never see the light of day and we will never break the positive feedback cycle the burning of fossil fuels for energy has created.

Some do see a silver lining and are making plans to mine the Arctic sea bed for the oil and other carbon resources stored there once the Arctic ice cap is gone. Others see new property development on the Arctic shores once the temps get a bit higher. Wonder when we can book flights to holiday there?