As I’m not too far off my renewal date now, I decided to do an analysis of my spending using and points earning potential with Select vs Black. I downloaded all of the transactions over the past 2 months into an Excel file, and then worked out how much points I would have got for each transaction with both options. As mentioned previously, my average spend with Select is in the region of $5-6k per month. I also assumed that I will transfer all points to KF either way, so we’re comparing like with like.
Two important caveats here:
- I spent about $3k overseas using Select during the past 2 months, which is higher than my average overseas spend.
- The bulk of my insurance premiums are paid annually in February, plus I prepaid my private health insurance until 31 Dec this year, so none of those transactions were included in the sample period.
Both of the above factors will exaggerate the benefit of Select versus Black over a full year. Also bear in mind that my Select transactions are self-selecting (no pun intended!) to earn more than could be earned with Black, as I already use my Black Amex wherever possible domestically (the only exceptions are my wife’s fault
). In other words, this isn’t a comparison of the overall earning potential of Black versus Select, it’s just a calculation to see how much incremental benefit I get from having Select
in addition to Black.
I worked out that I would have earned almost 9,000 fewer KF points if I had used the Black combo instead of Select for all transactions in the past 2 months. So that would be a difference of about 54,000 KF points per year if that was representative. Is 54,000 points worth $700? (1.3 c/pt) Probably not, but it’s not a definite no either.
However, I would say my average overseas spend would be less than half what it was in the past two months, and that in itself would cut the advantage of Select by about 16,000 pts per year. And then insurance would add at least 5,000 pts to the Black column over a year, even if I could only use the MC. Overall, that would put Select less than 35,000 pts per year ahead (2c per KF pt with a $700 fee).
I think this confirms my thinking that large overseas spend is the only thing that can make this card worth it, if you’re only spending $5-6k per month. So I’m going to call up to cancel before my renewal date, and unless they offer me a very good deal I won’t be changing my mind.
One other tip for anyone thinking of cancelling – I just realised I can pre-pay my childcare fees for 2014, and save 10% in the process. That’s my single biggest non-Amex spend, but pre-paying with Select means I can still earn 1.33 pts/$ for the whole of 2014, without renewing my Select card!