My tendancy leans towards Virgin having to join an alliance. With Rex challenging it could be the big difference, especially post Covid.I saw little use to Velocity until I realised that transfers to Krisflyer offered access to the whole of the Star Alliance network, including crazy mixed carrier itineraries. I hope those transfers come back - or if not, access to some other network. I agree that redemption on only VA would offer me limited opportunities for attractive redemptions.
There also maybe some incentives from alliances so there's less an initial financial burden.
Then again time will tell, and I've brought up the alliance questions all over again!