Connection time - chances of early flight

[Isochronous]

So I'm planning to book a First fare LAX-DFW-AUS that would be connecting from MEL-SYD-NAN on QF ticket and NAN-LAX on FJ ticket. I'm planning to book the AA leg so there is a connection time of 4h 50m. However, the same routing at the same price (as a First Special) is currently available an hour earlier.

Hence i was wondering, if everything runs on time, when I collect my bags in LAX from international and take them to the domestic connections bag drop desk, what my chances are of being moved to the flight one hour earlier?

The flights I'm looking for are on 8 Jan as follows - I've never tried using Expertflyer before and flightstats doesn't do AA flights, so I'm not sure how to look up loads, but what are other people's experience in regard to issues like this?

Booking:
AA2460 LAX-DFW dept 1655 arr DFW2155
AA513 DFW-AUS dept 2320 ar 0015

Also available:
AA2456 LAX-DFW dept 1535 arr DFW 2030
AA417 DFW-AUS dept 2200 arr AUS 2255

Note: I arrive at 1205 off the FJ NAN flight.

 

[Simo]

If you are on a fully flexible ticket just ask.

But if you are not still ask as it won't hurt.

It might depend on loads as well.

If I get offered a earlier flight sometimes I will ask is the flight you putting me on is it full and if it is no shadow at all so will take the later flight but as you are going first probably not that big of a deal.

 

[grussellt]

I would book the earlier AA flight anyway - that's still a reasonable connection time. The US seems to have it's act together now so that if you arrive with a short connection time they will give you express processing through immigration. It happened to us last month when aflight from CDG to JFK was late and we had 1.5 hr to catch a flight to MIA. We still made it (just!).

 

[Isochronous]

Think I'd still rather book the later one to be safe, although the 3.30 is tempting.