Coronavirus (COVID-19) Respiratory illness - Effect on Travel

[amaroo]

But given China‘s signficant and fast action here there must be more about this than what we are being told. Maybe there has been meddling scientific research and this time the genie escaped the bottle. Otherwise I’d agree that currently it’s like well, a common place virus that seems to have a few different characteristics but nothing much else.

You read the story from that Israeli Intelligence offical about the Chinese Virology lab located 30kms from all the action?

 

[Pushka]

You read the story from that Israeli Intelligence offical about the Chinese Virology lab located 30kms from all the action?

Yes, and I don’t know the veracity of that obviously but even before then I wondered if there was more to it that the Chinese Govt knew and not saying.

 

[amaroo]

Yes, and I don’t know the veracity of that obviously but even before then I wondered if there was more to it that the Chinese Govt knew and not saying.

Israeli Intelligence aren't known for getting it wrong or speaking out.

 

[RooFlyer]

If the NZ government wants to use NZ taxpayer's money to pay for the evacuation and two weeks' accommodation of Australian citizens, that sounds like the preferred outcome for Australian taxpayers as well!

Instead of somewhere like Christmas Island, NZ is using their whole country as an isolation venue. Time to halt TT flights

Score so far:

NZ: 1
AU: 0

The virtue count? I hope it won't soon be a count of something bad.

 

[Quickstatus]

. Those returning from Wuhan look like they will get a much better deal than our war heroes.

And the 44,000 homeless young people living on the streets. (Sign on bus today)

 

[DC3]

Instead of somewhere like Christmas Island, NZ is using their whole country as an isolation venue. Time to halt TT flights

Surely Tassie could be an isolation area. Another island away from our mainland.

 

[RooFlyer]

Surely Tassie could be an isolation area. Another island away from our mainland.

Such a card ... I'm quite happy with the Christmas Island solution and like the idea of some cost-recovery from those evacuated from Wuhan.

 

[Quickstatus]

Previous evac debts
The Aus govt never recovered debts from Operation Ramp Lebanon 2006. These were Australian with lebanese dual heritage living/holidaying in Lebanon but when the war broke out wanted evac back to Aus. They were urgently evac to Cyprus free but AusGov wanted a contribution from Cyprus back to Aus. Mostly no one paid.

There should be a contribution in the 2019 n-COV case because if there was an expectation of returning to Aus then it could be assumed that funds are available to cover the return trip and it is not war.

TI issues:
Is War a TI excluson?
My TI covers for environmental and natural disaster evacuation, political evacuation to limit of $500k. I would think this evac, if it occurs, would come under environmental evacuation. (something in the air is dangerous). Is political evac = evac due to war?

Rung my TI who is saying yes if I were there in Wuhan now it would "likely" be covered under environmental evac. But like any insurer they are cagey in saying simply yes or no.

 

[DC3]

Come on Oz Government. Just get them out when you are able, and call it “medical” (or health).

Edit: Call it anything. Sort out the small stuff later.

 

[Guvner]

Byron mother and online retailer of bespoke Balinese goods Andrea Vachser has today taken to a few online Facebook groups to voice her concerns about big pharma today.

Byron Mum Worried This Coronavirus Might Result In Another Deadly Vaccine

"5-G, chemtrails, fluoride in the water, the light rail burning and now this latest vaccine, when will people wake up."

www.betootaadvocate.com

 

[RooFlyer]

Come on Oz Government.

C’mon Chinese government? ( for permissions / clearances for the flight/ landing/ emigration etc).

Chinese parents of Australian citizen children especially need permission to leave with the kids.

 

[RooFlyer]

Byron mother and online retailer of bespoke Balinese goods Andrea Vachser has today taken to a few online Facebook groups to voice her concerns about big pharma today.

Byron Mum Worried This Coronavirus Might Result In Another Deadly Vaccine

"5-G, chemtrails, fluoride in the water, the light rail burning and now this latest vaccine, when will people wake up."

www.betootaadvocate.com

Betoota is a satire web site, isn’t it?

 

[Quickstatus]

Yes Satire, but also designed for people who take daily news seriously.

 

[DC3]

C’mon Chinese government? ( for permissions / clearances for the flight/ landing/ emigration etc).

Chinese parents of Australian citizen children especially need permission to leave with the kids.

Very naughty, RooFlyer. Or, maybe unintentional.

Quoting my post, editing out “when you are able” which totally changed the context:

Come on Oz Government. Just get them out when you are able ...

There are numerous obstacles, including working with the Chinese Government, but when “you are able“ (to overcome these).

Edit: And certainly big issues with the Chinese Government. Not denying that.

 

[amaroo]

Previous evac debts
The Aus govt never recovered debts from Operation Ramp Lebanon 2006. These were Australian with lebanese dual heritage living/holidaying in Lebanon but when the war broke out wanted evac back to Aus. They were urgently evac to Cyprus free but AusGov wanted a contribution from Cyprus back to Aus. Mostly no one paid.

There should be a contribution in the 2019 n-COV case because if there was an expectation of returning to Aus then it could be assumed that funds are available to cover the return trip and it is not war.

If $1K purchased something I've desperately wanted - wouldn't hesitate.

CI is not good enough, minor contribution is not good enough..... sigh

>170 dead and rising.

The head count prediction that @teammongo posted yesterday appears to be pretty bloody accurate.

 

[RooFlyer]

Very naughty, RooFlyer. Or, maybe unintentional.

Unintentional ... sorry. But they may be 'able' now ... its not the rate-determining step.

But now we have this (my bolding)

Adelaide man Wenbo Yu, whose wife and two children are in Wuhan, said his family was considering rejecting the Government's evacuation offer.

"We'd rather they stay in Wuhan," Mr Yu told the ABC.

"Compared to Wuhan, we believe Christmas Island is even more unpredictable."

Sydney mother Liu, who asked to be known by her surname, said after reading the news about Christmas Island, her daughter asked if they had "done something wrong".

There are at least 140 Australian children currently in Wuhan, the Chinese mega-city under strict lockdown. Their parents seek help to escape this nightmare.
"We are not prisoners, how could they treat us in a detention centre rather than a proper medical facility?" Ms Liu said.

Sydney woman Wu, who also gave her surname only, said she felt conflicted.

"The Government wouldn't send its citizens to Christmas Island detention centre if those who are trapped in Wuhan were white Australians," she said.

"As a mother, I feel so sorry to bring my daughters to a detention centre for the quarantine purpose."

She said there was no consultation before the announcement.

"We are forced to accept this offer … we have no other choice because the Government only gave us one single option to survive," she said.

If it wasn't for the kids, i'd be quite happy for them to be left in Wuhan.

 

[p--and--t]

If $1K purchased something I've desperately wanted - wouldn't hesitate

Unfortunately I suspect that given similar previous ideas, the most likely outcome will be the design and implementation of a process and effort to collect the contributions will exceed the money collected and merely result in generating extra stress all round.

 

[RooFlyer]

Maybe the government should have considered full cost recovery, including admin.

 

[amaroo]

Unfortunately I suspect that given similar previous ideas, the most likely outcome will be the design and implementation of a process and effort to collect the contributions will exceed the money collected and merely result in generating extra stress all round.

Is your life not worth $1k ?

 

[Quickstatus]

Link to a live site but maintained outside China
It also describes the number that have recovered - this is also an important statistic. Because it indicates the start of the recovery phase - see below
Even the spanish flu had peaks.
R-zero method of estimating transmissability mathematically implies it will just go on forever. (Measles has an R-zero of about 12).

But it doesn't. At some point in time there will be a peak.

The "SIR model" models the spread of disease by using differential equations for 3 groups of people: Susceptible, infected and recovered:
Its complicated math but a picture may help:

The red line is the % of total population infected, blue is susceptible, and green is recovered.
s(t)+r(t)+i(t) = 1

You can see that SIR can model a peak.
Theoretically in an evacuation you only want to evacuate the Susceptible group. The recovered would be immune. But this is near impossible to be able to specifically pick out the S group and sensitive enough to exclude the I,R group.