Coronavirus (COVID-19) Respiratory illness - Effect on Travel

[juddles]

I think this is the guise of a succesful virus - low mortality but highly contagious. The stats are so uncertain due to the guarded reporting of testing versus infection rates that the whole thing is still very well unknown. My understanding is that the current theories is that this is spread extremely effectively (ie badly) via fecal transfer. IE a public toilet used by an infected person can bloom into an absolute mega transfer station. As Drron says, dont expect definitive answers too soon. But IMHO what is becoming clear is that this is a tad different to yearly influenza things....

 

[I love to travel]

I think this is the guise of a succesful virus - low mortality but highly contagious. The stats are so uncertain due to the guarded reporting of testing versus infection rates that the whole thing is still very well unknown. My understanding is that the current theories is that this is spread extremely effectively (ie badly) via fecal transfer. IE a public toilet used by an infected person can bloom into an absolute mega transfer station. As Drron says, dont expect definitive answers too soon. But IMHO what is becoming clear is that this is a tad different to yearly influenza things....

I agree with the premise it is a tad different. What scares me is the why is it different. One of the theories is that the Chinese created this in a lab. That is bioterrorism if true.

 

[tgh]

Nice to see some input from Drron.. I thought you might be busy digging a survival shelter….

Juddles .. In terms of the current bugs….we know the enemy , we know how to respond and we mostly know our survival chances.
The new kid on the block has no street cred , it's a complete unknown in terms of long term effect on humans.
It may mutate into something catastrophic for humanity… we simply do not know.
Better to be positive for sure .. but also good , as best we can, to prepare for the worst.
I bought some p3 masks and refills , am I silly ?
I don't think so .. they cost me almost nothing and I will be ecstatic to be throwing them in the bin this time next year….

 

[moa999]

Not sure about the 40-70% infected.

This thing has been raging in Wuhan for over 2 months. Population 11m and not even 1% infected

 

[Pushka]

In reality how many of us go to the Doctor if we have the flu? Many don’t but just rest at home etc.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

In reality how many of us go to the Doctor if we have the flu? Many don’t but just rest at home etc.

And with Covid-19 for the vast majority the symptoms are very mild.

If they are already self-isolating little is to be gained by seeing a Doctor unless the symptoms escalate.

 

[juddles]

Not sure about the 40-70% infected.

This thing has been raging in Wuhan for over 2 months. Population 11m and not even 1% infected

Perhaps this is where the wildest fallacy of stats comes from - IF every single person in Wuhan has been correctly tested, then I would have some interest in the rates of infection. But the rates of testing are as important as the rates of confirmed infection. And these are not stats that are revealed...

 

[p--and--t]

Not sure about the 40-70% infected.

This thing has been raging in Wuhan for over 2 months. Population 11m and not even 1% infected

Given many infected are allegedly asymptomatic and only an extremely small fraction of 1% have been tested, I don't think anyone can tell within a few orders of magnitude how many of the 11m have, or have had and recovered without detection, from COVID-19.

If you look at the stats for Feb12th that jumped by 14K in one day - the point where the CCP realised that their rate of testing was totally ineffective and the stats were nowhere near being correct and added in the patients who presented who doctors thought they probably had COVID-19 and were sick enough to admit.

From reading various sources, I have come to the view the stats only reflect the persons who have presented at hospitals, and actually got seen, and weren't turned away because they didn't look sick enough or pay the "appropriate fee" (a.k.a. bribe) to get attention.

 

[juddles]

Given many infected are allegedly asymptomatic and only an extremely small fraction of 1% have been tested, I don't think anyone can tell within a few orders of magnitude how many of the 11m have, or have had and recovered without detection, from COVID-19.

If you look at the stats for Feb12th that jumped by 14K in one day - the point where the CCP realised that their rate of testing was totally ineffective and the stats were nowhere near being correct and added in the patients who presented who doctors thought they probably had COVID-19 and were sick enough to admit.

From reading various sources, I have come to the view the stats only reflect the persons who have presented at hospitals, and actually got seen, and weren't turned away because they didn't look sick enough or pay the "appropriate fee" (a.k.a. bribe) to get attention.

This is the exact opposite to Zika, where after country doctors throughout south america realized that an "outbreak" would attract funding, the number of "confirmed cases" skyrocketed. even though an actual test for Zika hadn't yet become available!!

What seems fairly clear here is that China has minimized (and is still doing so) this whole thing. I dislike that in the interest of free knowledge, but I also see that they are the ones trying to manage hysteria in a hugely overpopulated country that is simply Paradise for inter-human infections.

 

[sjk]

Just got back from seeing extended family in Cheongdo... hospital system is now so overtaxed that people will be dying of relatively routine ailments for want of treatment.

That area along with Daegu is now on par with Fukushima nuclear reactor surrounds in terms of DFAT advice, and Japan and South Korea as a whole have also been bumped up a level.

 

[juddles]

Maybe this is God's way of penalizing the Chinese for being the biggest growing users of carbon??

Sorry, that is both inflammatory and insensitive. I do really feel for the Chinese through this whole thing. We other countries suffer a decline in university private student profits and cancelled leisure flights - but the Chinese are the ones trying to build a gazzillion hospital beds to treat their masses of sick and dying people

 

[zenyattamondatta]

Maybe this is God's way of penalizing the Chinese for being the biggest growing users of carbon??

You have been awarded a trophy: Troll Progression

 

[juddles]

You have been awarded a trophy: Troll Progression

Lovely that you have finally decided to relinquish that crown

 

[p--and--t]

Maybe this is God's way of penalizing the Chinese for being the biggest growing users of carbon??

Sorry off topic, I'm sure you have created a couple dozen other threads to cover that

 

[juddles]

Sorry off topic, I'm sure you have created a couple dozen other threads to cover that

Pl-lease remind my foolish memory to these.... or is it just one that you disliked?

 

[p--and--t]

Pl-lease remind my foolish memory to these.... or is it just one that you disliked?

Don't fear - just my sick and twisted sense of humour and dread that this thread will like many others also descend into some hackneyed toing and froing on the subject of c-a-r-b-o-n or c-l-i-m-a-t-e or r-e-l-i-g-i-o-n. Its has been relatively on subject so far.

 

[PineappleSkip]

Globally, reported COVID-19 cases continue to double every five days, with today over 600 cases confirmed in Korea and over 130 in Italy.


The situation now appears to be much worse than South Korea in Iran, with reporting today of a rapid increase in deaths, with Iran's Health Ministry confirming 8 deaths. This, together with the 2 cases identified in Canada and Lebanon that were recent travellers to Iran suggests that the 43 cases they have confirmed are just the tip of a large iceberg.

The irreconcilable Iran numbers suggest that Iran is having great trouble in just locating active cases, let alone tracing contacts. Also uninspiring is Iran's response to the increase in deaths. Supreme leader Ayatollah Khamenei denounced "negative propaganda", and the government warned of punishment for "fake clips" on social media. In contrast to the denouncements, schools have been closed in 14 provinces from today and the Mayor of Tehran has foreshadowed quarantining the city of case numbers rise. In response, Turkey, Pakistan, and Afghanistan have all closed their borders to Iran.

Afghanistan today reported three suspected cases in Herat, which lies close to the Iranian border. All three recently returned from Qom, the pilgrimage centre from where the Iran outbreak is believed to have spread. The challenges of dealing with an outbreak there are as nightmarish as you could imagine.

On the Africa front, a recent study in the Lancet looked at travel between each province of China and each country in Africa, factoring in case rates by province, the African destinations of travellers from China, and a couple of indicators of countries' ability to respond to epidemics. Among their conclusions...

Egypt, Algeria, South Africa, Ethiopia, and Nigeria [are] estimated to be at highest risk [of importation of cases]... Flight bans implemented by some African airline companies serving China might alter future risk through a different repartition of the flow of travel; however, these bans are not expected to prevent importations. Not all connections between Africa and China have been cut—the main transporters continue to fly between the two (eg, Ethiopian Airlines, the largest carrier in Africa, operating almost half of the flights from Africa to China, together with all Chinese airline companies, and others). Previous and current evidence indicates that realistic travel restrictions would have a limited effect in containing the epidemic and would delay the risk that the outbreak extends to new countries by only a few weeks.

Various updates to countries' entry restrictions in the Timatic COVID-19 page. More countries have restricted travel from Hong Kong, Taiwan and Macao particularly in the Pacific. Israel and Bahrain have restricted travellers from Thailand and Singapore (Bahrain has also stopped travellers from Iran and Korea). The most restrictive award goes to the Comoros Islands, which is not accepting travellers from any Country with confirmed cases, which would include Australia.

 

[jb747]

The Hajj is in late July. Hopefully it will have settled down by then.

 

[suze2000]

How long until travel?

Two weeks.

 

[Pushka]

The Hajj is in late July. Hopefully it will have settled down by then.

Given the cancellations of major events already its an unknown but that would be a massive one. Im waiting for the Olympics announcement. Can imagine the discussions right now.