COVID-19 in Japan and Japanese waters

[SydneySwan]

Agree with that comment too but the above table is about probability - so older people who may contract the virus have a greater chance (14.8%) of dying from it.

That applies to most diseases / infections. But I find looking at actual numbers very informative.

 

[Pushka]

That applies to most diseases / infections. But I find looking at actual numbers very informative.

Trouble is we will never get that, a combo of China secrecy and people not bothering being tested because their symptoms just arent that severe.

 

[p--and--t]

That applies to most diseases / infections. But I find looking at actual numbers very informative.

The trouble with COVID-19 numbers in particular is that most of the numbers are a case of the visible part of the iceberg. The what's not known is suspected by most pundits to be orders of magnitude larger.

What is catching my attention is to see

the rate of change - South Korea (growth rate) + Italy (growth rate) + Iran (death rate) are troubling trends​

the death rate in China seems to be running more than 3% - higher than previously predicted​

the serious/critical cases are quite high - higher than my perception of the annual flu varieties (Italy 16%, Princess 6%). Perhaps someone in the health industry can confirm or refute.​

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Agree with that comment too but the above table is about probability - so older people who may contract the virus have a greater chance (14.8%) of dying from it.

Yes I appreciate it is about probability. However my point was that many who contract Convid -19 have no idea that they have done so and are not shown as a case in the figures, and so while I very much agree that older people who contract Convid-19 have a greater probability of dying from it (or problems it causes) that the actually probability is over stated.

What the table would allow you do do if you had the data is to compare its mortality rate to other corona-viruses if you use the same definition of what is a case.



I would believe that the actual probability of older people who may contract Covid 19 chance of dying is more likely to be substantially lower than 14.8% and likely by an order of magnitude or two.

Covid 19 has been active in a city of 11 million people for some time now and if the mortality probability for the elderly was that high I would have expected to have already seen many, many more deaths by now.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

the serious/critical cases are quite high - higher than my perception of the annual flu varieties (Italy 16%, Princess 6%). Perhaps someone in the health industry can confirm or refute.​

Remember that there is no vaccination yet. So this will increase the fatality rate.

Oddly in Australia, and many other countries, despite the common flu being a known killer many still do not get vaccinated for it.

2019 Immunisation Coalition Influenza Survey facts

• 39% of adults intend to get an influenza vaccination
• 61% of adults do not intend to get an influenza vaccination
• Women 55+ have the highest intention: 72% of this age group intends to have the influenza vaccine
• Young men have the lowest intention – only 19% have the intent to get the influenza vaccine
• 20% get the vaccine to protect themselves – only 10% of people get the vaccine to protect others
• Only10% of Australians believe that Kids are part of the groups that should be immunised against influenza

 

[lovetravellingoz]

As I understand it one of the biggest problems in trying to halt the spread of Covid-19 is that people who have it are contagious for around 14 days whereas with the common flu it is 5-7 days.

ie The Flu
An infected person can spread the flu for five to seven days after becoming infected. The infectious period can begin 24 hours before the onset of symptoms. This means you can spread the flu without even knowing you’re sick.

 

[Himeno]

Oddly in Australia, and many other countries, despite the common flu being a known killer many still do not get vaccinated for it. In many countries such as Australia many people get vaccinated for it.

2019 Immunisation Coalition Influenza Survey facts

• 39% of adults intend to get an influenza vaccination
• 61% of adults do not intend to get an influenza vaccination
• Women 55+ have the highest intention: 72% of this age group intends to have the influenza vaccine
• Young men have the lowest intention – only 19% have the intent to get the influenza vaccine
• 20% get the vaccine to protect themselves – only 10% of people get the vaccine to protect others
• Only10% of Australians believe that Kids are part of the groups that should be immunised against influenza

Because of cost.
Most people who don't get a flu shot are not in an "at risk" group, so can't get it for free.

 

[disruptivedolphin]

Back (almost) on topic, an issue of major concern to Japan along with South Korea, which has now seen all branches of its military infected:

N. Korea Quarantines 380 Foreigners to Prevent COVID-19 Outbreak

North Korea has reportedly quarantined about 380 foreigners as part of efforts to prevent the outbreak of the novel coronavirus, amid the spread of the illness in South Korea ...

world.kbs.co.kr

North Korea has claimed that there has been no COVID-19 cases in the country.

N. Korea quarantines about 380 foreigners as part of preventive efforts against virus | Yonhap News Agency

SEOUL, Feb. 24 (Yonhap) -- North Korean state media reported Monday that Pyongyang has qua...

en.yna.co.kr

The state radio did not provide details on the identities of the foreigners, but they appear to be diplomats stationed in Pyongyang and people involved in overseas trading.
It also emphasized that stepped-up preventive measures have been taken, in particular, in North Pyongan Province, a northwestern region bordering China, saying that around 3,000 people are under monitoring for apparently showing suspected symptoms.

 

[p--and--t]

Because of cost.
Most people who don't get a flu shot are not in an "at risk" group, so can't get it for free.

$14.95 at Chemist Warehouse. Available (I think nationally) Mar30th

Edit: Not Covid obviously - but the quad annual version.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Because of cost.
Most people who don't get a flu shot are not in an "at risk" group, so can't get it for free.

Only costs $14.99 at Chemist Warehouse.

Last year when these figures were done it was only $9.90.


If people want to save that little and put up with even the lesser symptoms of flu that to me is an odd choice. A bad case of flue even ignoring death can be severely debilitating.

I believe it is more procrastination, not really considering the matter etc.

 

[disruptivedolphin]

South Korea has just added 161 infections, taking their total to 763 with seven deaths in all.

They usually do two announcements a day, so more likely this evening.

 

[Pushka]

South Korea has just added 161 infections, taking their total to 763 with seven deaths in all.

They usually do two announcements a day, so more likely this evening.

That death rate seems higher than previously reported in China. Do you expect that S Korea are reliably testing?

 

[disruptivedolphin]

Diamond Princess: another Ministry of Health official and another quarantine officer have tested positive.

There is a possibility that the quarantine officer caught it between February 3 and February 6 and then took it back on the ship from the 19th onwards.

 

[disruptivedolphin]

South Korea has just added 161 infections, taking their total to 763 with seven deaths in all.

They usually do two announcements a day, so more likely this evening.

70 more announced, taking the total to 833. Biggest daily increase so far.

 

[disruptivedolphin]

South Korea:

The National Assembly was shut down Monday for 24 hours from 6 p.m. to be disinfected, as it was revealed that Ha Yun-su, president of the Korean Federation of Teachers’ Associations, had attended a parliamentary forum last week. Ha was confirmed to be infected with COVID-19. The plenary session scheduled for Monday afternoon was canceled.

There would have to be a decent chance of the Japanese Diet getting infected, too.

 

[disruptivedolphin]

Another complication in South Korea. 9,000 US soliders in the most hit area, around 28,000 overall.

USFK dependent tests positive for coronavirus, putting military on high alert in South Korea

The widow of a retired soldier who recently visited stores on a southeastern base tested positive for the new coronavirus in the first confirmed case for the Army in South Korea, officials said.

www.stripes.com

 

[disruptivedolphin]

Three more from Tokyo today. The new policy is to 'monitor' close contacts rather than test them. Another way to keep the numbers down. In Tokyo now it's unlikely you'll be tested unless you become ill.

Some minor chaos in Nagoya today because they ran out of people to staff the expressway tollbooths.

Two more from Ishikawa. A female in her 50s who works at the hospital where an infected government official was treated. And a guy in his 60s who'd met with a few people from China and also been to France February 10-15.

A guy from Kanagawa who works in Tokyo. No known connection to anyone so far. Diagnosed with pneumonia on February 19, ***not tested***. Deteriorated from February 23, now in serious condition.

 

[disruptivedolphin]

One of the recommendations issued by the Japanese government's panel of experts tonight was that testing should be limited because it's not useful for the purpose of stopping the IOC from taking the Olympics away from Tokyo from a preventive perspective.

So, for example, the 80 close contacts of a Tokyo school bus driver will be asked to self-quarantine and report on their health, but will only be tested if they become ill.

 

[Pushka]

One of the recommendations issued by the Japanese government's panel of experts tonight was that testing should be limited because it's not useful for the purpose of stopping the IOC from taking the Olympics away from Tokyo from a preventive perspective.

So, for example, the 80 close contacts of a Tokyo school bus driver will be asked to self-quarantine and report on their health, but will only be tested if they become ill.

Which is exactly how people dealt with swine flu and the domestic type flu. Maybe that will be the new order of things now.

 

[disruptivedolphin]

What Would It Cost to Cancel the Tokyo Olympics?

Cancelling the Summer Games over coronavirus fears would not be a fatal economic blow for Japan.

thediplomat.com

Spending ‘Already Happened’

Yet should the worse-case scenario for Japan eventuate, the economic impact might not be as devastating as feared, according to Capital Economics.

“The key point…is that most of the spending for the Olympics has already happened. Spending during the Games themselves is small, perhaps just 0.2 percent of GDP, and much of this is diverted from spending in other areas of tourism and recreation,” senior Japan economist Marcel Thieliant said in a February 21 report.

The London-based consultancy points to the experience of previous Games such as the 2008 London Olympics. While spending by overseas visitors surged by nearly 18 percent during the event, it slumped to a 21-month low some two months later. Similarly, the 2000 Sydney Olympics had a “negligible” impact on travel spending.

“What’s more, there is little evidence that the ‘feel-good’ effect from the Olympics boosts consumer spending,” Thieliant said, pointing to data from previous Games.