Melburnian1
Veteran Member
- Joined
- Jun 7, 2013
- Posts
- 25,479
In the QF and VA delays/ cancellations threads I have alluded to how the Federal election uncertainty, while not a first, is unlikely to be good for the airlines' flying hours, profitability, yields, share prices or percentage of seats filled.
There is some chance that Australia may head back to the polls to try to resolve what may - once the postal and absentee votes are counted - be a fluid and hence unstable situation politically. The Senate situation however cannot be easily resolved as it is extremely difficult for either side - Coalition v Labor/Greens - to obtain a majority irrespective as to whether it is a half-Senate (normal) election or double dissolution.
It is well known that business hates political uncertainty worldwide, but the behaviour of consumers (which may have a lag) can be every bit as important.
It won't be just delays in and unpredictability of the signing of major wholly or mostly government-funded construction contracts for infrastructure - the business side of things - but if consumer confidence takes a hit eventually, then it is not beyond the bounds of possibility that QF and VA may further reduce their domestic flying hours, perhaps even from the summer timetable that comes in from October (although these presumably take months of planning, and there is the problem of assets such as multi-million dollar aircraft needing to attract revenue).
One AFF member commented a while back that there were already unused mainline aircraft sitting around at weekends - probably a reference to B738s from both major airlines.
There may also gradually be an increase in cancelled domestic flights, such as QF sometimes only running three MEL - SYD flights per hour in the peaks, or it or VA cancelling the occasional flight on the half hour (QF generally has a half hourly frequency even during some off peak hours on this route).
As with many of us I like to be conservative with predictions but lower consumer confidence will hit both business and leisure travel, even if some of that reduction in flying by consumers who have a steady job might be irrational: in time, could this lead to the airlines directing more of their staff to take recreation leave, and in a worst case, redundancies?
There is some chance that Australia may head back to the polls to try to resolve what may - once the postal and absentee votes are counted - be a fluid and hence unstable situation politically. The Senate situation however cannot be easily resolved as it is extremely difficult for either side - Coalition v Labor/Greens - to obtain a majority irrespective as to whether it is a half-Senate (normal) election or double dissolution.
It is well known that business hates political uncertainty worldwide, but the behaviour of consumers (which may have a lag) can be every bit as important.
It won't be just delays in and unpredictability of the signing of major wholly or mostly government-funded construction contracts for infrastructure - the business side of things - but if consumer confidence takes a hit eventually, then it is not beyond the bounds of possibility that QF and VA may further reduce their domestic flying hours, perhaps even from the summer timetable that comes in from October (although these presumably take months of planning, and there is the problem of assets such as multi-million dollar aircraft needing to attract revenue).
One AFF member commented a while back that there were already unused mainline aircraft sitting around at weekends - probably a reference to B738s from both major airlines.
There may also gradually be an increase in cancelled domestic flights, such as QF sometimes only running three MEL - SYD flights per hour in the peaks, or it or VA cancelling the occasional flight on the half hour (QF generally has a half hourly frequency even during some off peak hours on this route).
As with many of us I like to be conservative with predictions but lower consumer confidence will hit both business and leisure travel, even if some of that reduction in flying by consumers who have a steady job might be irrational: in time, could this lead to the airlines directing more of their staff to take recreation leave, and in a worst case, redundancies?
