Flying for the masses is doomed

[rechoboam]

Several people here have suggested that flying will soon be an elitist activity as it was 50 years ago. I would be interested to hear exactly why they feel that way?

 

[harvyk]

I disagree, now the masses have had a taste, they will continue to want more and more.

What I expect we will see is the idea of class disappear, and everything will come for a price. Want to fly from SYD-LAX, that'll be $400 each way. Want a meal of x quality, add $50, step up a quality add $100, want a bigger seat, add $200, want a skybed, add $500, etc... Of course points will be available for purchasing those little extra's which used to be common place.

We're already seeing it with things like AirNZ's TT options.

The LCC's will find a way to make it work, and the legacy carriers will be forced to follow.

 

[simongr]

Once oil tops $500/barrel (in today's money) only the elite will be able to afford it.

 

[harvyk]

Once oil tops $500/barrel (in today's money) only the elite will be able to afford it.

Once oil tops $500/barrel (in today's money), not been able to afford to fly will be the last of the problems for the non-elite. I expect there will be a lot of things which will become out of reach for the average person, including food. (Cost of transport)

 

[rechoboam]

People survived before the internal combustion engine was invented.

 

[drron]

Very unlikely that oil will reach $500 a barrel.We are all ready seeing huge investments in alternative hydrocarbons including LPG,CSG,shale oil and gas.Even airlines are trialling biofuels.
As the oil price goes up the switch to these alternative fuels will speed up leading to decreased demand for oil hence putting a cap on prices.We are already seeing this with the Saudis threatening to increase production if further rises in the oil price.They have worked out the threat to their income if there is a large switch out of oil.

 

[Must...Fly!]

I do believe that it will once again be something for the elite, due to fuel prices, if a new source of power can't be developed for aircraft. I don't believe plant-based fuels are the answer either (taking over food crops).

Given that, I've decided to fly as much as I can now!

 

[rechoboam]

I'm reluctant to start another peak oil discussion. My impression is that people think that the future is in smalle planes and less seats? For fuel reasons?

 

[harvyk]

People survived before the internal combustion engine was invented.

People also used to grow their own food locally. These days food is transported over huge distances as is many of the other things we take for granted.

I'm reluctant to start another peak oil discussion. My impression is that people think that the future is in smalle planes and less seats? For fuel reasons?

Small planes, less seats and much higher frequency of services is probably what we are already seeing. Once upon a time, an airline will fly a jumbo into a place once every couple of days, fill it, and they wouldn't be back for another couple of days, these days an airline will fly a little 100 seater (or less) into a place every few hours. The TT route is a perfect example. Ignoring EK \ LA who are doing TT as an extension of much longer flights, NZ, QF, DJ, JQ are the main providers, and they are all flying little A320's and B737's TT, but I have a choice of several flights per day. (It's almost like a scheduled bus service with the frequency)

I don't think it's being done for fuel use, I think it's been done that way as people what choice in the times of their flights and it makes connections easier for airlines to manage.

 

[amaroo]

These days, isn't it the masses that keep planes in the air!

Airlines all over the World are pulling F cabins & starting LCC divisions.

 

[dajop]

I'm reluctant to start another peak oil discussion. My impression is that people think that the future is in smalle planes and less seats? For fuel reasons?

Conceptually (I don't know if this is true or not), isn't flying larger planes is more fuel efficient than flying lots of smaller planes? Not sure which have higher consumption per seat, but would expect larger planes generally to have lower consumption per seat than smaller planes, although I imagine there comes a turning point where consumption begins increasing again. And that's to say nothing of excessive fuel consumption during congestion with excessive taxi-ing and circling airports, because there are 5 airline flying 120 seat planes instead of two flying 300 seat planes.

 

[drron]

I do believe that it will once again be something for the elite, due to fuel prices, if a new source of power can't be developed for aircraft. I don't believe plant-based fuels are the answer either (taking over food crops).

Given that, I've decided to fly as much as I can now!

I agree that the US biofuels industry just doesn't make sense but biofuel can be made from other sources than using food crops-eg bagasse which is being used here and Brazil.
The facts though that through their gas fields which are now nearing economic feasability and are huge the USA will no longer be an energy importer in the next few years-these fuels will be used more in land based transport,heating etc.This then reduces demand for oil so that Avgas will be kept at a reasonable price compared to today.So fuel costs may very well not be catastrophic in the long term even if alternative fuel for planes cant be found.
And yes I do believe in peak oil but it is not only supply that is important in determining price.

 

[elbarto]

Several people here have suggested that flying will soon be an elitist activity as it was 50 years ago. I would be interested to hear exactly why they feel that way?

The problem I see is that people want more for less (as it seems to be for a lot of things in life). And it is difficult for airlines, which are inherently inefficient, to match that demand with their competing priorities of matching customer and employee satisfaction (i.e both want more for less). Governments also play a huge role in pushing up the cost of travel with the amount of taxes they charge.
Although I don't know much about the internal operations of an airline, personally I feel the whole industry is looking at things the wrong way. But I couldn't point out to you what is wrong or what could be changed.

 

[juddles]

I suspect the cost of fuel will stop air travel on approximately the same day I gain Life Time Gold with QF

 

[MatF]

Once oil tops $500/barrel (in today's money) only the elite will be able to afford it.

If oil tops $500 a barrel, there won't be any elites ... at least in Oz. The government will have taxed them into oblivion to provide cost of living handouts to the masses.

The masses will be the only ones who'll be able to afford to fly!

 

[anat0l]

I'd say it'll either be this or the LCC-ish model will become the modus operandi. We're already seeing it in the USA (except for major intercontinental routes).

Australia is a funny one because we don't have a spectacular internal market (otherwise, there'd be easily more airlines, more point to point routes and more dense schedules.... and possibly a second SYD airport), so fuel price sensitivities may just cause the national carriers to have a minor implosion. I don't see the government intervening to save the industry (admittedly a hypocritical idea since deregulation); I would like to see how many mining companies will continue to just put endless tickets in any bucket onto their expense accounts without second thought (though they will probably be the only ones sustaining J class, amongst some others).

Going back to an era where only a fraction of those today could fly might work better, though schedules / frequency will be the first to suffer because of it. I'd like to think that if less people flew that paid a higher price and still get the same load factors for the remaining scheduled flights, airlines might once again be able to bring back that special feeling in air travel.

Then again, maybe not.

 

[CWM]

I agree with harvyk, I think it will be seat + extras... the base price will include very little, well just a seat really.

Oil price is not a problem at least in our lifetime, in fact I expect it to decline in the longer term. The known available global oil deposits has well more than doubled just in the past few years - three states in the USA have more shale oil available than in Saudi Arabia for example. As an aside to this there is evidence of older oil wells replenishing, the whole 'fossil fuel' theory I was taught at school turned out to be based on assumptions which were wrong.

So I think the only serious threat to aviation is over-regulation, a problem in many western industries today. And in Australia a lack of major airports (again relates to government over-regulation).

 

[samh004]

People survived before the internal combustion engine was invented.

I’m not riding a horse to Woolies… and I’m not sure there are enough reindeer to pull planes into the sky

 

[drewbles]

People survived before the internal combustion engine was invented.

They also didn't have international business, food being freighted around the world to fill holes where food could not be grown/acquired.

Industrialisation has done a lot for the world. It's like saying people survived before the Internet. They did, but take it away today, and society would quite literally crumble.

 

[drewbles]

These days, isn't it the masses that keep planes in the air!

Airlines all over the World are pulling F cabins & starting LCC divisions.

These days, J is the new F yes.

But look at J (heck, even some Y+) today compared to the F of yesteryear. It's streets ahead still!

The airline business is very cyclical. I'm willing to bet F will come back, but it'll be J moving to F, Y+ moving to J and a new Y+ coming in, each being better than it's previous incarnation. It seems to be the way of the industry.