I would agree to move to VA for the published fly ahead benefit in this respect.
Having said that, I've never had issues changing to earlier flights *if seats available* - but I've been P1 for five years, so that's obviously giving me a big boost - even on non "flex" fares, which the offficial benefit explicitly states, QF do tend to do their best to look after us. I'd note I'd also been successful as a WP, but this was some years back with HLO and asking.. certainly not something I'd expect to be able to do per the published entitlements, but often there is flexibility (or used to be!) with agents, specially if it can free up a seat with a busy peak appproaching they often appreciate the chance to shift pax if it makes sense.
And when weather and such is forecast, then there's often general calls for people who want to move to earlier flights - I've heard that a few times in various lounges.
As for the argument about flights being cancelled only due to low loadings on day of departure. I'm not 100% black or white on the topic myself. I do however believe very strongly that the vast majority of on day cancels are not related to commercial considerations because as noted above aircraft and crews do still need to route to keep their own schedules - it can be a major PITA with flow on effects if one or the other (or both) do not go where they are supposed to eg that MEL-SYD 737 may continue on to CNS or TSV or ADL, and then further from there and it breaks all kinds of things (I often enjoy asking crews what their day schedule looks like to get an idea of the routings - I hope that doesn't sound like I'm a stalker lol). I find such logistics fascinating.
The reality is that only QF operations know the truth and probably only a very few who have or do work in these areas. Almost certainly people in yield and revenue management have zero say over day to day operational issues, while flight and crew scheduling would.
Now, I could see that if there was a decision to do a cancel between say a 1530 and a 1545 MEL-SYD service, both at 50% loading, it may well come down to looking at the routings of aircraft and crew to see downstream ramifications but I doubt it's a regular occurance. As discussed earlier airlines yield manage to avoid low loads, and if they are forecast they proactively cancel/reschedule services onths and weeks out, not on the day. We've all had those equipment downgrade notices, or that a flight has been changed notifications for flights a few months out - annoying, but this is when airlines finalise schedules, rosters all kinds of things.
It's not as simple as pointing at a plane saying it has 20 booked on it out of 156 (or whatever) and saying nope we'll not run that those pax can take the next one. There's so much more involved.
Anyone who knows anything about airline operations, scheduleing (fleet and crew), knows there's so many fators involved it's way more complicated than one sector on one plane.
However, I'm not an industry person, despite knowing several pretty senior folks at a number of US legacy and global carriers for decades, and things like this come up from time to time in discussions. I find it endlessly fascinating. In no way to I claim to know what goes on at QF with the huge cxl rate of QF* CBR flying, or anything in particular relatied to QF operations bar what I read in publications like AA and on forums(and talking to crews).. I do feel I have some practical knowledge of general principles of airline operations.
It would be interesting to hear from someone like jb747 if he'd ever had a sector cancelled he was due to fly for commercial reasons. Almost no chance with long haul international of course, but it would be interesting to know. It also raises a side thought of if a crew are paid by flying hours, and they are required to a certain minimum (or maximum) per month this would be another factor. Often crews are given trip schedules that cover a few days of flying, that may be something like MEL-BNE-TSV-BNE, BNE-ADL-MEL-SYD, SYD-MEL-BNE-MEL and you throw a cancel into that imagine the disruption.....
my 48 cents worth
