Future of air travel when fuel is $300/b

[straitman]

You can hope all you like but the fact is that global demand per day will soon outstrip supply per day and the price of oil will begin to rise exponentially.

vilemerchant,

That's a pretty broad brush statement :!:

Do you have facts and figures to substantiate the comment :?:

 

[Evan]

Actually i think he has a point, a lot of infomation out there is pointing to the fact we cannot get the oil out of the ground fast enough to meet expected demand.

This is to say the speed at which we can extract oil is in the short term a bigger threat than the fact we will actually run out. Most oil wells are not producing nearly as much per day as they used to, so you need a lot more wells to get the volume per day, there is however still a rather large amount of oil in the ground.

I however feel it will simply be a case of demand will drop as prices increase, it will in effect be self balanceing. People will for example buy smaller cars and use less oil and hence demand drops and price does not rise as rapidly.

To keep everything in check, i very much hope that countries like Indonesia, Malaysia, China, etc etc drop there govt subsidy applied to oil, ie user pays, this will have an amazing effect to consuption in some countries like China i am sure. (ok so bad inflation etc, but it has to be done some time as both Indonesia and Malaysia have started to do)

E

 

[JohnK]

Of course you can always take AY from SIN to HEL ...

One of my favourite trips. Why did they stop?

You can hope all you like but the fact is that global demand per day will soon outstrip supply per day and the price of oil will begin to rise exponentially.

No problem. If that is what happens then so be it. For now I will continue to enjoy cheap(ish) airfares on full service carriers from SE Asia back to Australia.

When my golf trips to SE Asia decline you know we are in for serious problems.....

 

[paxman]

great idea, 1 small problem. there is currently no soft way of putting someone into a coma without possibly days or weeks of recovery and even this is very ageing on the body, more so than flying itself (which is biologically ageing already).

I think the future belongs to hot air and a return to the glamorous days of floating airships. Of course we will have to give up our preoccupation with 'on time' arrivals.

Let's call it the Slow Air Movement

 

[codash1099]

vilemerchant,

That's a pretty broad brush statement :!:
:?:

It is indeed! It totally neglects the fact that as oil prices rise, previously marginal fields become viable and exploration in areas previously thought to be too expensive becomes possible. Further exploration in oil rich areas has already started (Iraq) and vast sources such as oil sands and shale oil start to be exploited. Techniques for drilling in even greater water depths are developing and will no doubt lead to new discoveries (eg Brazil's recent find).

The proponents of the peak oil theory usually are incapable of thinking outside a pretty small square.

 

[mainly tailfirst]

It is indeed! It totally neglects the fact that as oil prices rise, previously marginal fields become viable and exploration in areas previously thought to be too expensive becomes possible. Further exploration in oil rich areas has already started (Iraq) and vast sources such as oil sands and shale oil start to be exploited. Techniques for drilling in even greater water depths are developing and will no doubt lead to new discoveries (eg Brazil's recent find).

The proponents of the peak oil theory usually are incapable of thinking outside a pretty small square.

As good as new finds are, they don't address the other, significant, reason for high prices - lack of refining capacity. Granted, building new refineries is an easier job than extracting oil that may not exist, but I haven't much in the way of new refining capacity being announced. One suspects the NIMBYs and EPA regulation as a major issue, plus the tightening of credit markets can't help. Plus I hear steel is getting expensive. Better get used to +100USD oil I think.

mt