General Discussion/Q&A on Coronavirus (COVID-19)

[Pushka]

When it appears that the main source of our new infections at present is from people arriving in Australia, or people they transmit it to, then the 14 day quarantine for all arrivals makes lot of sense.

Containment is wiping out my business at present, but the Chinese got on top of things by making the hard decisions. I may not be in business by July given the ripples of what is happening, but I hope to at least be healthy together with the ones I care for.

We are pretty much in sync then. However as person to person transmission is now occurring here we need to stop that somehow too.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

I just checked out the daily increases.

Coronavirus Update (Live): 135,796,699 Cases and 2,934,646 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Pandemic - Worldometer

Live statistics and coronavirus news tracking the number of confirmed cases, recovered patients, tests, and death toll due to the COVID-19 coronavirus from Wuhan, China. Coronavirus counter with new cases, deaths, and number of tests per 1 Million population. Historical data and info. Daily...

www.worldometers.info

Australian cases up 49 today to 248.

That is almost up almost one hundred in two days. So is accelerating.

Also if you look at total cases and total deaths worldwide after a period of flattening off, both have accelerated. You can understand why NZ acted today to cut off new cases, and that is with them having a very low base at present.

 

[boomy]

I just checked out the daily increases.

Coronavirus Update (Live): 135,796,699 Cases and 2,934,646 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Pandemic - Worldometer

Live statistics and coronavirus news tracking the number of confirmed cases, recovered patients, tests, and death toll due to the COVID-19 coronavirus from Wuhan, China. Coronavirus counter with new cases, deaths, and number of tests per 1 Million population. Historical data and info. Daily...

www.worldometers.info

Australian cases up 49 today to 248.

That is almost up almost one hundred in two days. So is accelerating.

Also if you look at total cases and total deaths worldwide after a period of flattening off, both have accelerated. You can understand why NZ acted today to cut off new cases, and that is with them having a very low base at present.

Hong Kong only 138??
And we are the ones avoiding flying there...

 

[lovetravellingoz]

We are pretty much in sync then. However as person to person transmission is now occurring here we need to stop that somehow too.

Yes, but a number of the person to person cases come from people arriving in Australia. Cut off the arrival cases, and that will also reduce the person to person cases here.

Contact tracing when the numbers are low can be successful. We need to keep the numbers low.

The Government needs to make tougher restrictions and cracking down on arrivals is the easiest and most effective one to bring in.

It is no coincidence that more and more countries are bringing in 14 day isolation for arrivals, whether that be a blanket ban, or for select countries.

Cracking down on commuter travel now could be done, but if you do that now the wheels fall off and things will get ugly real quick when people cannot work. Supply of food and services all get interrupted if people cannot get to work and that would be an unsustainable mess.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Hong Kong only 138??
And we are the ones avoiding flying there...

Yes Hong Kong is one of the success stories at present along with places like Singapore. The countries/locations that have been decisive in their actions have been successful with controlling the infection rate. Their approaches have been different and so different approaches can work.

 

[boomy]

Yes Hong Kong is one of the success stories at present along with places like Singapore. The countries/locations that have been decisive in their actions have been successful with controlling the infection rate. Their approaches have been different and so different approaches can work.

Absolutely. I find it ironic Australians feel ok flying to the UK and other places but Hong Kong no way, too dangerous!

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Absolutely. I find it ironic Australians feel ok flying to the UK and other places but Hong Kong no way, too dangerous!

It is probably ironic that CV 19 has help quell the riots and civil discontent in Hong Kong to make it overall a safer place to be (for now).

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Oh and

China reports drop in new COVID-19 cases
14/03/2020|1min


The number of new confirmed cases of coronavirus across China has dropped to single digits. Eight new cases were reported in just 24 hours, five from the virus epicentre in Wuhan and three imported cases in Shanghai and Beijing. More than 65,000 patients have been discharged from hospitals across China since the outbreak. There are now more active cases in Italy than in China.

China reports drop in new COVID-19 cases

The number of new confirmed cases of coronavirus across China has dropped to single digits. Eight new cases were reported in just 24 hours, five from the virus epicentre in Wuhan and three imported cases in Shanghai and Beijing. More than 65,000 patients have been discharged from hospitals...

www.skynews.com.au

My other recent source had only 11 for China (they may be using different 24 hour periods, or data)....but any way you look at only 9 or 11 for China after their recent past is quite stunning.

 

[boomy]

It is probably ironic that CV 19 has help quell the riots and civil discontent in Hong Kong to make it overall a safer place to be (for now).

And yet they can’t get a break. Deserted airport, hospitality in crisis and airlines on the brink of bankruptcy. Very sad.

 

[juddles]

....

But we are getting somewhat political which is not good for AFF.

Understood - it seems my path with AFF is being cut off as we speak....

 

[PineappleSkip]

I just checked out the daily increases.

Coronavirus Update (Live): 135,796,699 Cases and 2,934,646 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Pandemic - Worldometer

Live statistics and coronavirus news tracking the number of confirmed cases, recovered patients, tests, and death toll due to the COVID-19 coronavirus from Wuhan, China. Coronavirus counter with new cases, deaths, and number of tests per 1 Million population. Historical data and info. Daily...

www.worldometers.info

Australian cases up 49 today to 248.

That is almost up almost one hundred in two days. So is accelerating.

Also if you look at total cases and total deaths worldwide after a period of flattening off, both have accelerated. You can understand why NZ acted today to cut off new cases, and that is with them having a very low base at present.

I havent't seen that, and I've watched daily. New cases reported daily outside China have doubled about every 4 days, sometimes three, sometimes five. It's doubled like clockwork for six weeks. Haven't checked the Australian trend but each country has jumps and relatively flat days as they find bundles of new cases. The global number shows a steady increase (doubling on average every four days).

Cheers skip

 

[lovetravellingoz]

I havent't seen that, and I've watched daily. New cases reported daily outside China have doubled about every 4 days, sometimes three, sometimes five. It's doubled like clockwork for six weeks. Haven't checked the Australian trend but each country has jumps and relatively flat days as they find bundles of new cases. The global number shows a steady increase (doubling on average every four days).

Cheers skip

If you look at the graphs here and more detailed ones elsewhere China in particular had been decreasing in new cases very rapidly.

What has now occurred is that the cases outside of China has been accelerating and has now become dominant and so the gradient of total new cases is now steepening up again.

 

[amaroo]

If you look at the graphs here and more detailed ones elsewhere China in particular had been decreasing in new cases very rapidly.

What has now occurred is that the cases outside of China has been accelerating and has now become dominant and so the gradient of total new cases is now steepening up again.

China has been willing to do the job - sacrifice whatever number to protect the rest - it worked.

Are we prepared to do the same?

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Up to now most of the cases worldwide had been occurring in the colder climes of 5-11 degrees.

The updated paper on this is at

Temperature, Humidity and Latitude Analysis to Predict Potential Spread and Seasonality for COVID-19

Background: A significant number of infectious diseases display seasonal patterns in their incidence, including human coronaviruses. Betacoronaviruses such as M

papers.ssrn.com

With Europe and North America starting to heat up that CV-19 may actually have a seasonality to it based on hotter weather and that the infections rates will slow. This may or may not happen of course.

Balancing this of course is that the Southern Hemisphere is starting to get into the cooler months including of course Australia and in particular in the south. Though not quite as cold as the 5-11 degree range.

It does however provide another reason why Australia needs to clamp down on the growth of CV-19 before the colder weather really arrives.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

China has been willing to do the job - sacrifice whatever number to protect the rest - it worked.

If you and indicating that they sacrificed lives to save lives, then I disagree.

1/ By preventing movement they stopped the infected spreading and transmitting to others. Once infected there fate was already largely determined.

Now one could argue that they may have infected more people within households by doing this. However I would suspect that people if they had of fled to elsewhere in China would have done so as family units. Certainly I read reports of the Chinese tracking down families that fled.

2/ By quarantining like they did it also meant that China could and did build new hospitals and provide medical care exactly where it was needed most. This would have saved lives. If the masses had fled elsewhere medical care would have probably become impossible. Quarantining meant they could focus appropriate treatment and resources.

Are we prepared to do the same?

We do not have to.

Singapore, South Korea, Hong Kong, Taiwan and other countries have all used different but successful approaches to turn things around.

The main point is that whatever we do, if it is done now things will be much easier. Our current number of active cases is still very small. This means tactics such as active contact chasing, better hanwashing and cleaning, minimising crowds and isolation can still be very effective for example and hopefully can avoid full lockdown which would have many negative consequences. We need a range of tactics and to my mind the main missing link immediately is preventing people flying in who are infected who are free to move around without a suitable quarantine.

Active cases need to be kept at a manageable level.

Within months, or even a month, there should be better treatments which will help.

Eventually there will be a vaccine, but this may be a year away.

 

[amaroo]

We disagree - no surprises there.

Trying hard not to be offensive - Just about every prediction you have posted has been wrong. I won't list them, but they are not that hard to find.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

We disagree - no surprises there.

Trying hard not to be offensive - Just about every prediction you have posted has been wrong. I won't list them, but they are not that hard to find.

So was my SQ cancellation advice wrong?

Knowing what we are disagreeing on is hard to know if you do not outline your views.

Discussion is always healthy. That is what forums are for.

Please feel free to post what you believe should be done.

PS. I know that I have become more hardline over the last week.

 

[amaroo]

Like I said there’s no need for me to be rude, you already have your hands full with drron.

 

[RooFlyer]

Though not quite as cold as the 5-11 degree range.

No?

 

[lovetravellingoz]

No?

No Melbourne does not have sustained months of sub 11 degree temperatures such Milan has for example, and the even colder Hubei.
It also has no snow

Hobart is almost in that range though.