General Discussion/Q&A on Coronavirus (COVID-19)

[Bundy Bear]

Is it bad to choose a NYE party based on the chances of getting COVID.

 

[Quickstatus]

choose a NYE party

You must have a very wide and diverse social life to be able to choose the NYE party…

Basically the younger the crowd, the higher the Covid risk.

Just say you got a cough and need to be tested if you don’t really want to go.

Luckily for me NYE is not a thing for me and so it does not become an ethical dilemma

 

[JohnM]

an ethical dilemma

Love it!

 

[Pushka]

You must have a very wide and diverse social life to be able to choose the NYE party…

Basically the younger the crowd, the higher the Covid risk.

Just say you got a cough and need to be tested if you don’t really want to go.

Luckily for me NYE is not a thing for me and so it does not become an ethical dilemma

NY works out fine for us but where we will be is surrounded by Olds!

 

[Quickstatus]

Covid mortality statistics from ABS

In summary:

Case fatality rate:
number of deaths divided by number of confirmed infections by infections in %
0.1% for age group 0-59 but progressively rises to 46% for males and 33.5% for females in 90+ age group

Covid and associated other conditions
9% reported as only cause in death certificate
75% had pre-existing conditions and also conditions listed in the chain of events leading to death.

Conditions listed in causal chain of events = such as Covid causing pneumonia causing respiratory failure leading to death etc etc

Pre-existing conditions
Surprisingly obesity listed in only 4% of deaths - I thought this would be higher.
Chronic cardiac conditions listed in 36.5%
dementia 31.8%

I suspect the obesity % is less because the deaths are enormously skewed to the elderly who tend to have chronic cardiac, dementia, chronic respiratory diseases, cancer

Would be interesting to see the breakdown of obesity in each age cohort.

Covid deaths and country of birth
The important statistic here is the "Age standardised death rate" = the weighted average of the age specific mortality rate per 100,000 people. - weighted according to the proportion of persons in the corresponding age groups based on the WHO standard population

Importantly
- Countries under 2.0/100000 are: Australia, UK, North East Asia
- Countries under 3.0 are: New Zealand, Other North Western Europe, South East Asia, Americas

- Countries with the highest aged standardised death rates = Samoa, North Macedonia, North Africa and Middle East,

Covid deaths and Socio-economic index rank areas in Australia
Deaths in the lowest socioeconomic areas was over 4 times for those in the lowest SEIFA quintile (lowest 20% of IRSD scores) compared with the quntile 5 (top 20% of score)

Rather than a pandemic of the unvaccinated, this has been a pandemic of the old, infirm and poor


Question 1: Did the heavy police presence and enforcement help the old, infirm and poor?

Question 2: What should have been done differently, if anything?

 

[Quickstatus]

Weekly deaths due to respiratory disease Australia.

Note: I have not yet labelled each line - red, orange and blue
Hint: one the the lines represent 2021 deaths.
I invite people to tell me what line represents what years.

 

[JohnM]

Pre-existing conditions
Surprisingly obesity listed in only 4% of deaths - I thought this would be higher.
Chronic cardiac conditions listed in 36.5%
dementia 31.8%

I suspect the obesity % is less because the deaths are enormously skewed to the elderly who tend to have chronic cardiac, dementia, chronic respiratory diseases, cancer

Would be interesting to see the breakdown of obesity in each age cohort.

I imagine cardiac conditions would be confounded with obesity? Is there as clear a definition of death caused by obesity, as opposed to death caused by cardiac issues? (ie. death 'from obesity' sounds like it would be almost too generalised a proximate issue to list as a cause of death in itself, whereas death 'from cardiac failure' is a much more specific issue 'cleaner' to pin down as an ultimate cause on a death certificate?)

Re. your subsequent mortality plots: I would say they are 2019 blue, 2020 red and 2021 orange.

 

[Quickstatus]

Is there as clear a definition of death caused by obesity

Obesity per se does not directly cause death. It is as you say related to cardiac, respiratory. Just as high cholesterol doesn’t kill you but the myocardial infarction due to the high cholesterol does

However obesity is only recorded on 4% of death certificates apparently - either as a stand-alone condition of the patient or as a direct causal effect as I mentioned above and in my recent post.

Cardiac disease not necessarily related to obesity.

 

[Quickstatus]

Re. your subsequent mortality plots: I would say they are 2019 blue, 2020 red and 2021 orange.

1/3 stars

2015-2019 is blue line (the average of that week for that period) with the light blue shaded area as the upper and lower numbers of that time period

2020 is orange

2021 is red - note it is not yet drawn all the way to the end as when it was created the last weeks of Nov and Dec were not yet available

The big peak represents the winter months

Basically the graph is very interesting because it indicates that there were more deaths from respiratory causes in the pre Covid era compared to the Covid pandemic.
Food for thought?

Similar story for the more specific disease of pneumonia.

Question: did more people die overall from all causes in Australia during the COVID years of 2020 and 2021 compared with previous non Covid years???

 

[Quickstatus]

Here is an idea.

RAT tests provided free like the UK

Otherwise it only favours the rich.

 

[Flashback]

Here is an idea.

RAT tests provided free like the UK

Otherwise it only favours the rich.

Not free........ I'm paying for them with my taxes!

 

[tgh]

I'm paying for them with my taxes

silly boy.. come back to Australia where taxation is voluntary

 

[Pushka]

Here is an idea.

RAT tests provided free like the UK

Otherwise it only favours the rich.

I heard that some suppliers in SA were charging $90 for five. Price gouging and immoral. Actually amoral.

 

[Quickstatus]

Might be another reason why Omicron less severe

Primary data. Not modelling.
Omicron emerging as tendency for upper airway rather than lungs.

So Omicron more sore throat, runny nose
according to some and symptoms more like the beta coronaviruses - the garden variety cold???

Respiratory infections which are less severe tend to be upper airway…

 

[tgh]

This is a bit left field but as a part of my megalithic journey, I found it super interesting.

Exec summary : Spurred by our current pandemic, these guys traced a previous coronavirus pandemic …25k years ago..

…add..this precious little bit of info MAY explain the demise of a previous advanced civilisation..ref the silurian hypothesis and others

An ancient viral epidemic involving host coronavirus interacting genes more than 20,000 years ago in East Asia

The current severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic has emphasized the vulnerability of human populations to novel viral…

www.sciencedirect.com

 

[drron]

And an article on why obesity is a risk factor for severe disease.

SARS-CoV-2 infects human adipose tissue and elicits an inflammatory response consistent with severe COVID-19

The COVID-19 pandemic, caused by the viral pathogen SARS-CoV-2, has taken the lives of millions of individuals around the world. Obesity is associated with adverse COVID-19 outcomes, but the underlying mechanism is unknown. In this report, we demonstrate that human adipose tissue from multiple...

www.biorxiv.org

 

[Quickstatus]

O

demise of a previous advanced civilisation

Interbreeding with Neanderthals is generally not recommended.

 

[TheRealTMA]

O

Interbreeding with Neanderthals is generally not recommended.

Aw come on! It’s (was) New Years Eve! Go for it. Lots of them about on NYE!

 

[JohnM]

Aw come on! It’s (was) New Years Eve! Go for it. Lots of them about on NYE!

And I dare say a lot of interbreeding eventuated...

Aaahhh - gotta love evolution. Ya never know where it's going to lead...

 

[Must...Fly!]

I heard that some suppliers in SA were charging $90 for five. Price gouging and immoral. Actually amoral.

Indeed. Saw packs of two at Coles yesterday and didn't buy. Really should have!