General Discussion/Q&A on Coronavirus (COVID-19)

[drron]

Media chasers aside, one’s perception of the bureaucrats may well depend on where you live.

On a national level the commentary from the Canberra bureaucrats was invariably well considered but it has been mixed on a state level and the messaging in Victoria has seemed more like the CHO woke up with a thought bubble hovering above his head and decided to run with it.

A good comparison to illustrate this would be Nick Coatsworth’s reliable comments vs the Victorian CHO, Brett Sutton’s directives which have frequently not only lacked scientific credibility but have been plainly nonsensical at the same time.

Disclaimer: For expediency I have lumped epidemiologists and bureaucrats with post grad Public Health qualifications, such as these two, together.

Yes the State CHOs are not epidemiologists. So far removed it is a chasm between the 2 groups. Some of the CHOs had minimal clinical experience.

 

[Lynda2475]

But at the same time some of the epidemiologist gave zero thought to the practicalities of needing to live with covid, Im looking at you Mary-Louise Mclaws. Has to be a balancing act, the world has mostly moved on, it didn't come to an end, there is no doomsday.

 

[andye]

Norman Swan was having to fill his ABC radio slot with talk of his ancestors in Odessa as so little going on with Covid now

 

[N860CR]

Norman Swan was having to fill his ABC radio slot with talk of his ancestors in Odessa as so little going on with Covid now

They dragged him out this morning to claim that the refugees fleeing Ukraine into Poland are likely to produce a scary new covid variant

 

[Flashback]

They dragged him out this morning to claim that the refugees fleeing Ukraine into Poland are likely to produce a scary new covid variant

Let's see if I pick it up while I'm there then this week ha ha.

 

[Quickstatus]

been almost 2 years

Been nearly 1.5 years since you last lurked in these parts . How r u?

 

[JohnK]

Been nearly 1.5 years since you last lurked in these parts . How r u?

Older, not much wiser and convinced I now know the origins of life as we know it.

 

[Flashback]

Older, not much wiser and convinced I now know the origins of life as we know it.

A bat?

 

[drron]

So much for a covid zero policy. Today HK recorded 172 deaths. Population ~ 7.5 million.
Australia's worst day 134 deaths from 25.7 million.

 

[Pushka]

Norman Swan was having to fill his ABC radio slot with talk of his ancestors in Odessa as so little going on with Covid now

He has a book just out and is coming to SA for Writers week. Has to stay relevant

 

[There'sOnlyOneJimmy]

So much for a covid zero policy. Today HK recorded 172 deaths. Population ~ 7.5 million.
Australia's worst day 134 deaths from 25.7 million.

Yes, it looks like the genie is out of the bottle…
(from Worldometers.info)

 

[drron]

Yes and more deaths in the last 24 hours -172- than Australia's worst day -134 with 3.4 times HKs population.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

So much for a covid zero policy. Today HK recorded 172 deaths. Population ~ 7.5 million.
Australia's worst day 134 deaths from 25.7 million.

Am I seeing the wrong information? I see +246 to 990 deaths total on HK Government coronavirus website.

 

[drron]

Mine were from Covid-19 but checking that was 2 days ago.So much worse since.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Yes and more deaths in the last 24 hours -172- than Australia's worst day -134 with 3.4 times HKs population.

Just looking online, their booster % (whole of population) is at about 23% which is on the low side. Australia is about 45%, UK 57%. Denmark 62%

 

[drron]

Studies are now coming out about the usefulness of lockdowns. back in the early 2000s the US had a pandemic policy which did not include lockdowns because of the harm that they caused. It stopped being reviewed ~ 2010 so when Covid arrived lockdowns did as well supported by some pathetic modelling such as that from the Imperial College London where lockdowns would prevent 98% of deaths. In total according to analysis of studies a team at John Hopkins found that the decrease was ~ o.2% but at such great cost that lockdowns should not be a part of future pandemics.

More specifically, stringency index studies find that lockdowns in Europe and the United States only
reduced COVID-19 mortality by 0.2% on average. SIPOs were also ineffective, only reducing
COVID-19 mortality by 2.9% on average. Specific NPI studies also find no broad-based evidence
of noticeable effects on COVID-19 mortality.

SIPO - Stay In place Orders.

https://sites.krieger.jhu.edu/iae/files/2022/01/A-Literature-Review-and-Meta-Analysis-of-the-Effects-of-Lockdowns-on-COVID-19-Mortality.pdf

A similiar conclusion came from a Canadian study.

http://www.sfu.ca/~allen/LockdownReport.pdf

So it is now time to get rid of all elements of lock down strategy.

 

[tgh]

Lots of applied hindsight happening ; every situation is different and it is a long bow to exclude lockdowns in an absolute sense

 

[Lynda2475]

it is a long bow to exclude lockdowns in an absolute sense

Disagree, very little benefit was delivered from lockdowns and lot of harm which we will be dealing with for years to come.

 

[vetrade]

Lots of applied hindsight happening ; every situation is different and it is a long bow to exclude lockdowns in an absolute sense

"Hindsight" is what makes the saying "People who ignore the mistakes of the past are condemned to repeat them" absolutely sensible.
Hindsight confirms that lockdowns were/are just the knee jerk default position of politicians and their advisers who were utterly unprepared - inept people who didn't have a workable Disaster Management Plan in place despite the fact that leading universities such as Harvard and Princeton had written of the imperative for all major businesses and governments to have one as far back as the 1970's and 80's, and published comprehensive "how to" guides as to how to go about it.

 

[oz_mark]

"Hindsight" is what makes the saying "People who ignore the mistakes of the past are condemned to repeat them" absolutely sensible.
Hindsight confirms that lockdowns were/are just the knee jerk default position of politicians and their advisers who were utterly unprepared - inept people who didn't have a workable Disaster Management Plan in place despite the fact that leading universities such as Harvard and Princeton had written of the imperative for all major businesses and governments to have one as far back as the 1970's and 80's, and published comprehensive "how to" guides as to how to go about it.

It's interesting because we had a pandemic plan. Now while that seemed to be more about influenza, we still managed to toss most of it in the bin. For whatever reason, the world by and large followed the Wuhan lockdown model.

Question is, ideally, what should we have done?