General Discussion/Q&A on Coronavirus (COVID-19)

[file51]

So on the Italian Government site on Covid 19 says the first cases in Italy were 2 Chinese tourists on 31/1
As of March 17 there were 26062 cases diagnosed with 2503 deaths.

From the CDC the first case was an American just returned from Wuhan on 21/1.
As of 17/3 there were 4226 cases and 75 deaths.This in a population 5 times the size of Italy

No way at this stage are they comparable.

The United States are way behind when it comes to testing.

Given that they have just distributed a bunch more test kits and both numbers quoted have increased dramatically the numbers will start to even up very soon.

 

[amaroo]

At the moment the health care system can cope with 30% of care workers at home. In three weeks, when they will be forced to close the schools anyway, it won't be able to.

I don't know why people think it won't go down here exactly like it has everywhere else. It will get steadily worse and worse until the government is forced to lock down anyway, only then they'll have hundreds of deaths a day instead of one or two.

Not sure how many think that won't happen - have a look at the grocery shelves.

 

[smlynarz]

I did hear a rumour last friday that Australia would be going into lock down. Hindsight shows that didn't happen but there are rumours coming out of the government agency at MEL.

 

[file51]

I did hear a rumour last friday that Australia would be going into lock down. Hindsight shows that didn't happen but there are rumours coming out of the government agency at MEL.

Another raft of measures are expected to be announced on Friday the 20th after the next meeting by the powers that be,

 

[CaptJCool]

Just to lighten the mood

View attachment 210048

The safest place on the plane is the coughpit.... and now it’s empty ....lol

If schools and Unis close are the students going to self isolate?I wouldn't bet on it.

Well, my son has mentioned all classes have already gone online at his Uni but it’s interesting that recent info said 70% of students didn’t show up to lectures so is that a difficult imposition on them ? Prob not.

 

[prozac]

And equally and more likely I will not. I know how to hand wash and live alone. Not a huge risk of me getting it or spreading it. The big problem atm as I see it is all the Chicken Littles freaking out about End of Days extreme possibilities instead of being rational. Thanks for your input though.

Mind you it might not be very exciting there atm with bars and clubs, etc. shut down. They may go into complete shutdown any day and you'd be stuck there...maybe that's what you are wishing for.

Bangkok closes bars, schools amid public rumours of pandemic lockdown

Thailand’s flip-flopping on measures to curb the outbreak, along with a minister mask-hoarding scandal, have seen a deterioration of public trust.

www.scmp.com

 

[p--and--t]

Another raft of measures are expected to be announced on Friday the 20th after the next meeting by the powers that be,

My expectation is that there will be new tightening measures issued every 3-4 days as the case load continues to rise exponentially until the gov is forced to extreme measures.

I feel this is being treated as a balancing act between the economy and lives and it would be interesting to know if and how many they have decided is acceptable to keep "near normality" going.

 

[p--and--t]

So on the Italian Government site on Covid 19 says the first cases in Italy were 2 Chinese tourists on 31/1
As of March 17 there were 26062 cases diagnosed with 2503 deaths.

From the CDC the first case was an American just returned from Wuhan on 21/1.
As of 17/3 there were 4226 cases and 75 deaths.This in a population 5 times the size of Italy

No way at this stage are they comparable.

This is a genuine question and not attacking you, but in the interests of more input, would appreciate you elaborating a bit more why you are trusting the figures being produced so far when the authorities of one state have stated publicly they believe there are 100K or more current cases (as of last week) in their one US state alone.

 

[opusman]

If you test more, you find more. US is doing hardly any tests in comparison with Italy.

 

[drron]

The United States are way behind when it comes to testing.

Given that they have just distributed a bunch more test kits and both numbers quoted have increased dramatically the numbers will start to even up very soon.

Over 5000 per day this week just from the public labs.Private labs not counted.And they concentrate on testing those that are symptomatic or are contacts which are much more likely to test positive.
Screening everyone is a waste of resources.The world is already running short of test kits.

 

[Max Samuels]

Honestly what is wrong with people? What is so hard about 'if you are unwell, stay at home' ? (All of these people have jobs with sick leave included so it's not a money thing.)

In people's defense, it is a cultural thing in Australia that we as a society are really to blame. For as long as I can remember, unless you work for a large corporation or a government body with all sorts of parental and personal and whatever you want leave (and this is a new thing too), being sick was always frowned upon. As a culture we think people that take sick days are whimps or whatever you want to call it. The general view of many Aussies it seems is that someone that takes a sick day is a bludger. In fact, this view is so pervasive that the very rules that surround sick days and when you need a medical cert support this - days immediately before/after annual leave, public holidays, long weekends etc - all these pretty much require a medical cert in most companies, which really underlines their attitude that many people ARE bludgers and try to rort the system.

So... as much as I 100% agree with your statement, I can easily see why we have got to this point :-(

 

[JessicaTam]

[mod hat]
A number of posts have been moved to this thread. That may alter the continuity of some replies.
[/mod hat]

 

[opusman]

Over 5000 per day this week just from the public labs.Private labs not counted.And they concentrate on testing those that are symptomatic or are contacts which are much more likely to test positive.
Screening everyone is a waste of resources.The world is already running short of test kits.

You can't quote infection rates in isolation from testing rates, that's my only point. On the dates you mentioned Italy had found a lot more infections than the US because they had done a lot more tests.

 

[PineappleSkip]

It’s certainly very possible that it will. But that said, it’s not turned into a massive outbreak in every country in the world.

There is massive growth reported in the past week in the majority of countries in the World. I've been looking at growth for a couple of months and the growth in reported numbers has been inexorable, and its possible the rate of growth in new cases - which was doubling outside china every 4 days - is picking up.

Hanrahan says that at current growth rates, active cases will clock over 1,000,000 around the end of the month. However, Pollyanna says that would still be only about 1 in 8,000 people, and most of them will only get a mild dose.

cheers skip

 

[Flashback]

Not sure how many think that won't happen - have a look at the grocery shelves.

First in the door at the supermarket today and again walk out empty handed for the items I need.

I noticed on my walk there more people are out exercising, I think that's more a case of the now forced to WFH crowd.

 

[Flashback]

Oh and 2 minutes after opening 150 people in the store, it's not overly big. Busier than I've seen it during peak hour on Saturday. Self service checkout line 4 times longer than usual. 10 minutes after arriving most shelves bare.

 

[TheRealTMA]

Over 5000 per day this week just from the public labs.Private labs not counted.And they concentrate on testing those that are symptomatic or are contacts which are much more likely to test positive.
Screening everyone is a waste of resources.The world is already running short of test kits.

The US have dropped the ball. South Korea are doing 17000 tests per day for a much lower population than the US. Testing is the only real way to detect non-symptomatic carriers and limit spread. I’m a little surprised that some suggest not testing is a good idea. World experience seems to indicate otherwise.

The spread in the US could have been caught much earlier. Remember the Seattle group who found the first infections were told by FDA to stop testing.

A Seattle research project was reportedly told not to conduct coronavirus tests on swabs from flu patients — a missed opportunity early in the US outbreak

The Seattle Flu Study had been collecting nasal swab samples from residents in the area in January but were not allowed to test them for coronavirus.

www.businessinsider.com.au

What Went Wrong with Coronavirus Testing in the U.S.

During three crucial weeks in February, as a first set of test kits sent out by the C.D.C. failed to work properly, labs across the country scrambled to fill the void.

www.newyorker.com

 

[lovetravellingoz]

This is a genuine question and not attacking you, but in the interests of more input, would appreciate you elaborating a bit more why you are trusting the figures being produced so far when the authorities of one state have stated publicly they believe there are 100K or more current cases (as of last week) in their one US state alone.

When you listen to those in the USA the picture is not as positive as some are indicating on this forum. Even their highest level of government this week has seemed at last to seemed to have understood how stark their position is. I posted a little while back that the USA was in danger of becoming an Italy Mark 2, and that unfortunately seems to be the case that they are heading in that direction and they now seem to have had widespread transmission of CV 19 within the USA. How much the USA can suppress that now is the subject of ever increasing action, but they have an extremely difficult task now.

Remember too that according to a report this week on where CV 19 cases in Australia has resulted from (when known) that the USA was the number one source of infections.

 

[Alluring Tours]

India has 147 confirmed cases as of now.

 

[Denali]

Hubby is going to do his piano lessons remotely, hes the student. Webcam on keyboard while he plays/they talk.