General Discussion/Q&A on Coronavirus (COVID-19)

[p--and--t]

There are plenty of estimates of the mean number of people each infected person infects, and IIRC most are somewhere between 2 and 3, with a few outliers, and so on with the mean time from exposure to symptoms also being measured in several days.

I'm not an apologise for the national pandemic influenza plan, or whatever its called, but there's the matter of using scarce resources in the most cost effective matter. You could have everyone who has to isolate monitored daily by the police, or transfer them to quarantine stations, but that's not happening either.

Of course, there will be 300,000 cases by tomorrow and there were only 8,000 SARS cases altogether. But the available resources to deal with the problem at the airport? - Somewhat fewer, given 12 years of efficiency dividends since then.

Cheers skip

There are 20,000 Qantas workers looking for something useful to do and 100,000 casuals in various industries stood down. I can't believe I'm saying this, but I'm coming to the view the Chinese procedures may be the most appropriate, maybe 6 weeks late, but..... Don't trust anyone's status, no matter how well they look or feel.

 

[Pushka]

Posted on the other thread but 10 of 19 American tourists tested positive in the Barossa Valley. They'd arrived within the past fortnight. I'm thinking that there may not have been a lot of post arrival isolation going on.

 

[PineappleSkip]

I'm with you. Assuming voluntary compliance (both reporting symptoms on arrival and self isolation) is at the scary end of the risk-resource-response spectrum. Hearing too many stories of people ignoring the requirements.

Cheers skip

 

[Must...Fly!]

I must admit that being in the office feels increasingly psychologically uncomfortable. The exponential climb will hit everywhere at some point.

Coronavirus (COVID-19) in Australia | Data

Data visualisations tracking the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) in Australia. Updated frequently. Embeddable infographics. A volunteer-run, fact-checked project tracking the outbreak.

www.covid19data.com.au

Indeed the cases would be higher, in my opinion. One of the consequences of limiting clinical testing to those recently overseas is that it eliminates testing for those with a respiratory condition who haven't been overseas, unless they end up in hospital or have been in touch with a confirmed case. So it's hard to imagine the numbers not being higher than the official data suggests.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Ok, for those that still think that Covid 19 is only a problem for old people.:

My daughter visited this afternoon and the one Covid 19 person in her ward with Covid 19 is only in their 30's. In their 30's. Without a ventilator they would be dead.

 

[Pushka]

I must admit that being in the office feels increasingly psychologically uncomfortable. The exponential climb will hit everywhere at some point.

Coronavirus (COVID-19) in Australia | Data

Data visualisations tracking the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) in Australia. Updated frequently. Embeddable infographics. A volunteer-run, fact-checked project tracking the outbreak.

www.covid19data.com.au

Indeed the cases would be higher, in my opinion. One of the consequences of limiting clinical testing to those recently overseas is that it eliminates testing for those with a respiratory condition who haven't been overseas, unless they end up in hospital or have been in touch with a confirmed case. So it's hard to imagine the numbers not being higher than the official data suggests.

When you get 10 people who brought the virus here from USA in one hit, then how predictive is the exponential growth? This blows SA off the graph.

 

[LadyC]

I must admit that being in the office feels increasingly psychologically uncomfortable. The exponential climb will hit everywhere at some point.

Yes, I agree. My team is running at 50% in the office on rotation. Half in one day, the other half a different day. Not supposed to cross over at all in case one of the team gets COVID-19. Sure, but when you still have to catch public transport to work, walk through the CBD, get in the lift with 10 other people and share the building with 1,500-2,000 people, there is no way you can effectively socially distance yourself and we will all end up with it anyway.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

When you get 10 people who brought the virus here from USA in one hit, then how predictive is the exponential growth? This blows SA off the graph.

Not to mention it shows what a coughstorm the USA is going to really be.

 

[Flashback]

Are you going to be OK? Do you think you can shut down and get some sleep as I think its about 3am where you are

In the end took something to knock me out. I do worry, as few on here will be well aware of what usually happens when I go through periods like this (unforced), whereas this time around it's more of a forced thing. We will see. This is (or isn't) a first world problem, but I wonder what the impact on health will be not from the virus but from other situations.

Agree there are a lot of people not distancing and I suspect the government will do more next week.
UK has shut schools for everyone but essential service personnel kids which I think would be a smart model.

On the growth charts I've seen we are doing better than most countries - and hopefully isolation is stopping spread from those coming back from overseas (and less tourists since last Sunday)

While they may be shut, they're offering more of a daycare situation rather than schooling.

 

[moa999]

So it's hard to imagine the numbers not being higher than the official data suggests.

Slightly higher.
But remember even with symptoms and contact/overseas travel the negative rate is over 99% - over 100k negative tests.

So a lot of other bugs around causing symptoms.
Open testing up and you'll have a million people lined up at hospitals.

 

[Flashback]

 

[MEL_Traveller]

... but when you still have to catch public transport to work, walk through the CBD, get in the lift with 10 other people and share the building with 1,500-2,000 people, there is no way you can effectively socially distance yourself and we will all end up with it anyway.

But why do you have to do this? Are you working from home on the 50% rotation, or is it free time? If working from home, the whole office could stay home?

 

[LadyC]

But why do you have to do this? Are you working from home on the 50% rotation, or is it free time? If working from home, the whole office could stay home?

Working full time, some days at home and some days in the office. Management don't want to shut down and get 100% non-operational staff working from home unless required by the government. I'm not sure our office currently has sufficient IT infrastructure for 100% to work from home full time.

 

[zenyattamondatta]

Some People

Some people feel helpless & anxious. Some people are bored. Some people are self-quarantined alone and are lonely. Some people

kottke.org

 

[Flashback]

I've found that IT staff are on the 'essential workers' list here in the UK, makes sense as IT makes the world go round. Working in IT for a few orgs at the moment I've found that my services have been more in need as I provide consultancy around how best to deal with DR/BC. There's not enough hours in the day.... but pleased to say everyone I've worked with is at least effectively able to continue doing what they do.

 

[Flashback]

This is as close as I will get to Holland.. our first tulip for the season has bloomed!

 

[TheRealTMA]

Slightly higher.
But remember even with symptoms and contact/overseas travel the negative rate is over 99% - over 100k negative tests.

So a lot of other bugs around causing symptoms.
Open testing up and you'll have a million people lined up at hospitals.

As S Korea and other countries have found, better a negative test than a pandemic spread. Yes there’s a need to reduce load on hospitals but don’t see why it’s not possible to set up mobile testing as other countries have done?

 

[Must...Fly!]

Slightly higher.
But remember even with symptoms and contact/overseas travel the negative rate is over 99% - over 100k negative tests.

So a lot of other bugs around causing symptoms.
Open testing up and you'll have a million people lined up at hospitals.

Absolutely agree.

Drive through testing could be implemented here as a good solution though

However a family relative works in a pathology lab and they've had to stop several types of testing involving faeces due to a critical shortage of the reagent required to analyse the sample. So the rest of the health system is starting to feel the pressure.

 

[TheRealTMA]

Absolutely agree.

Drive through testing could be implemented here as a good solution though

However a family relative works in a pathology lab and they've had to stop several types of testing involving faeces due to a critical shortage of the reagent required to analyse the sample. So the rest of the health system is starting to feel the pressure.

Never thought I’d post such a thing, but Bill Gates made several good points about lack of investment in disease and testing facilities some years ago.

Here's what Bill Gates once said we needed do to prevent a crisis like the coronavirus, and what we need to do to stop the next pandemic

Bill Gates said in 2015 that the world was not ready for a pandemic and that "We need to get going." This is what he then said we needed to do.

www.businessinsider.com.au

Not all American billionaires use their fortunate and lucky windfalls to send cars around Mars.

 

[amaroo]

As S Korea and other countries have found, better a negative test than a pandemic spread. Yes there’s a need to reduce load on hospitals but don’t see why it’s not possible to set up mobile testing as other countries have done?

Is mobile different to drive thru?