General Discussion/Q&A on Coronavirus (COVID-19)

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Its not claimed the app will detect 1.5m as such. The strength of the bluetooth signal will be a proxy for proximity. For instance, someone above or below you in an apartment block, or 4+ metres away 'should' :) have its signal degraded enough for it not to be a 'detection'. A stranger standing right behind you in a check-out queue for 10-15 mins certainly will be 'pinged'.

And with a hoped-for 40% uptake rate, its certainly not being seen as a 'panacea'. When its implemented, regular manual tracing will still occur, but ANY way to get some quicker detection will be a help, especially when the 'proximity' is to someone you don't know (and therefore untraceable by the usual methods). As you say, a nice supplement.
I would think that's a pretty fair assessment. The problem is that when you start to consider the variability, you start to question the usefulness. I can't even think of the last time I spent 15+ minutes in a queue with a stranger. Lost baggage at Sydney airport perhaps? I've spent a fair time there but the situation ebbs and flows. Not sure of a solid fifteen minutes? Plane flights obviously, but we're all locked into our seats and traceable. Free choice seating on public transport would have to be a big one, but in that instance, you'd hope it reached out more than 1.5m. 60 minutes on a bus would affect more than the immediate seats!
Hmm, I think I've pursued my point full circle. Good stick, poor crutch!
 
Remember that the App is in addition to the current contract tracing techniques, and is not a replacement. Also the App is to be deployed in an environment of low to zero cases and so is in part to help backtrack if a surprise case gets detected.

As the economy is progressively restarted there would be more and more instances over time where you may be near another person for more than 15 minutes.

  • Public transport (Obviously a biggie during peak hours)
  • Uber, taxis
  • Airport waiting lounges....including Airline lounges
  • Park benches
  • Hotel lobbies
  • Shops
  • Hairdressers - many do not have appointments
  • Cafes, restaurants including McDonalds etc
  • Pubs
  • Gyms
  • Live theatre
  • Movie theatres
  • etc

You can imagine that in say 4 months of low to zero cases that people start to relax and ease off on maintaining social distancing, plus activities such as theatres are resumed where you sit closely and then say a drug running yacht arrives from Indonesia with not just cocaine, but 3 crew who are infectious with CV19. A hotspot suddenly emerges.
 
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This is more of a question or request for information, so I can cogitate in lock down a bit more.

There is constant talk by those champing at the bit to remove restrictions that we can rely on "herd" immunity.

Is there any conclusive evidence at all that immunity is indeed evident after a patient has contracted the virus and recovered?

If there is evidence of immunity, are there any longer term studies in progress to track how long such immunity persists?

Are any studies being done to confirm a recovered patient does not still carry the virus and is definitely not capable of spreading the virus further?

Is anyone doing studies on how each of the above factors influence the forecasts that keep being trotted out or are they assuming you get it, get well, end of story?
 
This is more of a question or request for information, so I can cogitate in lock down a bit more.

There is constant talk by those champing at the bit to remove restrictions that we can rely on "herd" immunity.

Is there any conclusive evidence at all that immunity is indeed evident after a patient has contracted the virus and recovered?

If there is evidence of immunity, are there any longer term studies in progress to track how long such immunity persists?

Are any studies being done to confirm a recovered patient does not still carry the virus and is definitely not capable of spreading the virus further?

Is anyone doing studies on how each of the above factors influence the forecasts that keep being trotted out or are they assuming you get it, get well, end of story?
At this stage, I'd be very wary of the herd immunity concept. Historically it can be shown to have worked but history doesn't record the herds who were wiped out when it didn't. It's a logical outcome that history is written by the survivors!
My feeling is that getting smarter about not transmitting it and shutting down infection outbreaks is going to be the way of the future, at least in the short term. I'd be really happy if they could increase testing. Test enough people that genuine analysis could be done.
 
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At this stage, I'd be very wary of the herd immunity concept. Historically it can be shown to have worked but history doesn't record the herds who were wiped out when it didn't. It's a logical outcome that history is written by the survivors!
My feeling is that getting smarter about not transmitting it and shutting down infection outbreaks is going to be the way of the future, at least in the short term. I'd be really happy if they could increase testing. Test enough people that genuine analysis could be done.
It’s interesting, “herd immunity “ is a general theoretical concept with a virus, but informed reports suggest that we don’t yet know enough to understand if the concept applies to Coronavirus.
 
It’s interesting, “herd immunity “ is a general theoretical concept with a virus, but informed reports suggest that we don’t yet know enough to understand if the concept applies to Coronavirus.


Even if one wants to go along the herd immunity path it makes a lot more sense to do it after:

1/ The point you make- ie it is known that CV19 makes one immune and also for how long it may make you immune for

2/ After effective treatments are developed so that less people die, suffer long-term lung damage or even just the often severe symptoms

or 3/ Ideally also after a vaccine is out as speeds up the herd immunity effect plus achieves less deaths and long-term lung damage etc.
 
Even if one wants to go along the herd immunity path it makes a lot more sense to do it after:

1/ The point you make- ie it is known that CV19 makes one immune and also for how long it may make you immune for

2/ After effective treatments are developed so that less people die, suffer long-term lung damage or even just the often severe symptoms

or 3/ Ideally also after a vaccine is out as speeds up the herd immunity effect plus achieves less deaths and long-term lung damage etc.
Or you take the Albigensian Béziers solution.

Caedite eos. Novit enim Dominus qui sunt eius.

.
 
I saw this article today that introduces for me a lot of uncertainty to the "herd immunity", the accuracy of current testing, and points to confusion over immunity for Covid-19 in general.

Sounds similar to the experience of an AFFer.

 
There is a study of immunity being undertaken

There are a gazillion 'studies' being undertaken.

Anything from an Australian organisation - particularly a university - that includes the phrase 'world-first' and 'breakthrough' immediately gets my antennae going apoplectic...

It's come from, or been promulgated by, the utterly shameless PR departments that infest such organisations - the occupants of which know jack-cough about science - and care even less about its philosophy, reproducibility and ethics...

Let's look at a few buzz-phrase and hyperbole from that article:

...reimagined a set of technological tools...

...greeted enthusiastically worldwide...

...a more nuanced approach...

...hailed as of potentially huge benefit...

...The discovery...

...after the breakthrough was announced...

...a more nuanced approach...
(not my repeat - theirs a couple of pars further on from the first.)

...The breakthrough comes... (Their repeat again.)

... play a central role...

...a bid to outsmart...


FFS - give me a break; just give me a goddam_ break... :mad::mad::mad:

If that guy writes grant applications like that - and gets them - then the world has truly gone to excrement.
 
Well one radical treatment just used in the USA to save the life of a 16 year old girl was a heart-lung bypass.

She has just returned home to her family.

It was indicated by one of the doctors involved that is a treatment that will only be used when all other options have been exhausted and would also not be used for many (particularly the elderly) as they simply would not survive it.

It was also described as a very costly and resource intensive procedure, which would also limit its possible use.
 
There are a gazillion 'studies' being undertaken.

Anything from an Australian organisation - particularly a university - that includes the phrase 'world-first' and 'breakthrough' immediately gets my antennae going apoplectic...

It's come from, or been promulgated by, the utterly shameless PR departments that infest such organisations - the occupants of which know jack-cough about science - and care even less about its philosophy, reproducibility and ethics...

...
Lots of grant money up for grabs at the moment! :)
 
Spanish?. I would have thought the Americans with their emotional support animals......

Maybe the Americans think they don't need to use animals to support their "rights to be free to do anything they like". In their rallies to defend their rights not to "stay at home" there were a frighting number of automatic weapons being toted around and brandished.
 
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