General Discussion/Q&A on Coronavirus (COVID-19)

[dajop]

Who is WHO again? Good grief

"The World Health Organisation has backflipped on its original COVID-19 stance after calling for world leaders to stop locking down their countries and economies.

Dr. David Nabarro from the WHO appealed to world leaders yesterday, telling them to stop “using lockdowns as your primary control method” of the coronavirus.
He also claimed that the only thing lockdowns achieved was poverty – with no mention of the potential lives saved.
“Lockdowns just have one consequence that you must never ever belittle, and that is making poor people an awful lot poorer,” he said."

Too late. Again.

You've got to remember in all this that information is evolving and experience has now shown that lockdowns don't work in most of the countries that are targetted by the advice (which are not western countries, WHO really are a backstop for poorer nations with far less expertise and funding than OECD countries).

There is no massive tax pool to draw upon, like say Australia with huge funding packages, there is a massive migrant worker problem associated with lockdowns in many countries (by migrant worker, that's people from one part of that country working temporarily in another part), and the lockdowns in many countries well exceeded even Victoria has seen. The restrictions on movement and lack of recognition of essential activities - like agriculture - was quite bad initially in many such countries.

The referred article is unsurprising that it comes from the Rupert Murdoch stable. They've been pushing the anti-lockdown message from the beginning.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

You've got to remember in all this that information is evolving and experience has now shown that lockdowns don't work in most of the countries that are targetted by the advice (which are not western countries, WHO really are a backstop for poorer nations with far less expertise and funding than OECD countries).

I think that's right. Need to look at the demographics of each country... if the population is young, they have no income, live in cramped conditions, no health system to be 'overrun', no social security... a lockdown may not be the most effective tool.

I'm not sure how much credibility WHO has these days?

 

[dajop]

I'm not sure how much credibility WHO has these days?

If you look beyond the politics they probably still have credibility and an important role to play in a whole range of areas in the developing and particularly the lesser developed world, their work is way more than just dealing with pandemics ....

Less important and less credible for OECD countries though.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

If you look beyond the politics they probably still have credibility and an important role to play in a whole range of areas in the developing and particularly the lesser developed world, their work is way more than just dealing with pandemics ....

Less important and less credible for OECD countries though.

Yes. Good point!

Just not sure they have much credibility with covid and entering the political sphere

 

[drron]

An article on how long people are infectious with Covid.

Patients with mild, moderate COVID-19 unlikely to be infectious after day 10 of symptom onset

By Denise BaezNEW YORK -- October 13, 2020 -- Patients with mild to moderate coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) are highly unlikely to be infectious after day 10 of symptom onset, however, patients with severe disease may shed the virus for a longer period of time, according to a study...

dgalerts.docguide.com

And a trial using hyperimmune immunoglobulins in treatment.

NIH trial testing hyperimmune intravenous immunoglobulin plus remdesivir to treat COVID-19 begins

The National Institutes of Health (NIH) announced that a Phase III clinical trial, known as Inpatient Treatment with Anti-Coronavirus Immunoglobulin (ITAC), to test the safety, tolerability and efficacy of a combination treatment regimen for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) consisting of...

dgalerts.docguide.com

 

[lovetravellingoz]

The POTUS group continues to have new infected identified cases added to it. Barron Trump and Trish Scalia the Labor Secretary's wife and USMC General Garry Thomas being two of the latest additions.

General Thomas joining another senior military in the clump : Admiral Charles Ray

Trumps' son Barron had coronavirus but has since tested negative, Melania Trump says

First lady Melania Trump reveals her 14-year-old son Barron tested positive for the coronavirus but had no symptoms and has since tested negative.

www.abc.net.au

Labor secretary's wife, who was at Rose Garden event, tests positive for coronavirus

The Labor Department announced in a news release Tuesday night that Secretary Eugene Scalia's wife, Trish, has tested positive for coronavirus. The announcement said that Eugene Scalia has tested negative so far but will work from home "for the time being."

edition.cnn.com

For an updated list:

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/article/trump-white-house-orbit-tested-positive-covid.html

Who has tested positive:

• President Donald Trump
• First lady Melania Trump
• Barron Trump, President Trump's youngest son
• Hope Hicks, senior adviser to the president
• Bill Stepien, Trump’s campaign manager
• Kayleigh McEnany, White House press secretary
• Karoline Leavitt, White House press staff
• Chad Gilmartin, White House press staff
• Two junior press aides
• Stephen Miller, senior White House adviser
• Nicholas Luna, assistant and "body man" to the president
• Adm. Charles Ray, vice commandant of the U.S. Coast Guard
• Marine Gen. Gary Thomas, assistant commandant of the Marine Corps
• Ronna McDaniel, Republican National Committee chairwoman Ronna McDaniel
• Sen. Mike Lee, R-Utah
• Sen. Thom Tillis, R-North Carolina
• Sen. Ron Johnson, R-Wisconsin
• Crede Bailey, head of White House security office
• Trump's military aide
• Two members of the White House residence staff
• Four White House reporters
• Chris Christie, former New Jersey governor who helped Trump with debate prep
• Kellyanne Conway, former White House senior adviser
• The Rev. John Jenkins, president of Notre Dame University who attended Barrett's nomination announcement at the White House
• Pastor Greg Laurie, pastor of the Harvest Christian Fellowship who attended Barrett's nomination announcement at the White House and the Prayer March

Coast Guard official tests positive:Joint chiefs of staff quarantine after COVID-19 penetrates military leadership

The list grows:White House senior adviser Stephen Miller tests positive for COVID-19

 

[MEL_Traveller]

Just going to put this out there... I think the time it takes to process and administer the test is too long!

I went for a test at a facility attached to a major public hospital, I was 12th in line and had to queue for 30 mins just to get in the front door. Inside there were three desks set up to take our names, which were double checked against ID and verbal confirmation. We were given a piece of paper with our details.

Then we had to queue at a second desk where we exchanged our piece of paper for a set of stickers and the test kit. This involved more tapping at a computer and being asked to verbally ID ourselves again (third time now). Name, address, date of birth, telephone,

Then we had to go to a third station where the test was administered... but *again* had to confirm ID, name, age, address, phone.

I would like to see a system where they just swipe your medicare card, confirm your phone, and give you the test kit! Done in 5 minutes instead of 30.

I appreciate the staff must be pretty bored administering tests day in and day out, but none of them acted or moved with any sense of urgency. (I say that while being on the record of being one of the biggest supporters of our health system and its staff.)

The queues in regional victoria were 7 hours yesterday. Something needs to be done!

 

[nutwood]

As soon as you have excessive delays to get a test done, you introduce a bias as to who gets tested.

 

[Pushka]

Just going to put this out there... I think the time it takes to process and administer the test is too long!

I went for a test a a facility attached to a major public hospital, I was 12th in line and had to queue for 30 mins just to get in the front door. Inside there were three desks set up to take our names, which were double checked against ID and verbal confirmation. We were given a piece of paper with our details.

Then we had to queue at a second desk where we exchanged our piece of paper for a set of stickers and the test kit. This involved more tapping at a computer and being asked to verbally to ID ourselves again (third time now). Name, address, date of birth, telephone,

Then we had to go to a third station where the test was administered... but *again* had to confirm ID, name, age, address, phone.

I would like to see a system where they just swipe your medicare card, confirm your phone, and give you the test kit! Done in 5 minutes instead of 30.

I appreciate the staff must be pretty bored administering tests day in and day out, but none of them acted or moved with any sense of urgency. (I say that while being on the record of being one of the biggest supporters of our health system and its staff.)

The queues in regional victoria were 7 hours yesterday. Something needs to be done!

I’ve taken Grandson twice to a drive through lab that processes via Bulk Bill. Needs a Dr phone call. Was all done in less than 5 minutes and with grandson still in the baby seat.

 

[tgh]

New world record (Drum Roll) …15/10/20.. daily tested covid positives …398 609
The rate of escalation continues to increase and I wonder why folks seem so complacent.
The infectivity of the bug seems to be increasing and I wonder why folks seem so complacent
Governments are increasingly reluctant to cause more economic hardship and this facilitates the spread and I wonder why folks seem so complacent

 

[MEL_Traveller]

I think it’s because the current strain seems less virulent? Either the hospitals aren’t overwhelmed, or are at the same level of occupancy as the first wave, despite the greater number of positives.

People have had enough I guess.

 

[jeza]

New world record (Drum Roll) …15/10/20.. daily tested covid positives …398 609
The rate of escalation continues to increase and I wonder why folks seem so complacent.
The infectivity of the bug seems to be increasing and I wonder why folks seem so complacent
Governments are increasingly reluctant to cause more economic hardship and this facilitates the spread and I wonder why folks seem so complacent

Through July, August, September the new cases had been ranging between high 200k to low 300k, has spiked upwards in the last couple of weeks.

You really hope that with a combination of better treatments & *fingers crossed* a less virulent form of virus there will not be as big a spike in serious illnesses & deaths. Not liking the trend of serious cases on Worldometer

Coronavirus Graphs: Worldwide Cases and Deaths - Worldometer

COVID-19 statistics, graphs, and data tables showing the total number of cases, cases per day, world map timeline, cases by country, death toll, charts and tables with number of deaths, recoveries and discharges, newly infected, active cases, outcome of closed cases: death rate vs. recovery...

www.worldometers.info

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

Say that to the french.

Reportedly been holding off going to second lockdown.

Now almost forced to.

 

[p--and--t]

I think it’s because the current strain seems less virulent?

Is that really the case though?

Not picking on you, that is an assumption I have seen widely espoused in various forums.

Until there is some definitive evidence otherwise, I'm more of the view that it has killed off many the most vulnerable so future infections will be of the next cohort that is less vulnerable with less comorbidities. i.e the people getting it are more resilient (and always were), not that the virus is weaker.

 

[drron]

It also could be that the average age of those getting infected has fallen dramatically since the first 3 months of the pandemic.Younger people are less likely to have severe disease or be hospitalised.
This report from early July as the US figures took off again.
"The average age of new coronavirus patients has dropped by roughly 15 years compared with only a few months ago, White House health advisor Dr. Anthony Fauci said "

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/06/dr-anthony-fauci-says-the-average-age-of-us-coronavirus-patients-has-dropped-by-15-years-as-sun-belt-states-gets-hit.html

 

[OZDUCK]

While not good news for a certain person it does seem to be some reasonably hopeful news for most other people. Of course we will only know how successful at preventing infection it will be once it has received general distribution and its efficacy, rather than safety, can be ascertained.

N.F.L. Team Thrown by False Positive Covid-19 Tests

A White House virus adviser prefers “herd immunity” over testing. Outbreaks in the Mountain West show the dangers in rural America. Belgium is closing bars and restaurants for a month, and imposing a curfew.

www.nytimes.com

 

[Princess Fiona]

The UK ICU database has started a new set again. Admissions to ICU rising.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

It also could be that the average age of those getting infected has fallen dramatically since the first 3 months of the pandemic.Younger people are less likely to have severe disease or be hospitalised.
This report from early July as the US figures took off again.
"The average age of new coronavirus patients has dropped by roughly 15 years compared with only a few months ago, White House health advisor Dr. Anthony Fauci said "

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/06/dr-anthony-fauci-says-the-average-age-of-us-coronavirus-patients-has-dropped-by-15-years-as-sun-belt-states-gets-hit.html

Yes I agree.

I think what a number of countries are recently essentially reporting is that tests are now more abundant and so what is now occurring is a truer reflection of society as a whole than it was in the first wave. This means more young and healthier people are presenting for testing.

Whereas earlier in the pandemic with testing more limited, those tested was biased towards those who became ill with covid. So as a proportion the number of ill, and those who died was over-represented. So with testing now a closer reflection of a countries actual demographics it seems as if the mortality rate is less whereas it is probably only somewhat less.

I say somewhat less as I would tend to believe that treatment has now substantially improved improving the outcome for many who may otherwise have died.

Lastly in many cases ICU and Covid wards were less stressed and so again outcomes should have been better for many. However if the surge in cases in many countries maintain then ICU and Covid wards may become overloaded and in that case outcomes may become worse.

 

[drron]

Some more from around the world.
First having an autoimmune disease increases the risk of Covid.It is thought primarily due to steroi_ usage.Those using biologics or DMARDs as monotherapy have a lower risk of severe Covid.

Iincreased risk of COVID-19 in patients with autoimmune diseases, glucocorticoid use plays a role: Study

By Denise BaezNEW YORK -- October 15, 2020 -- Patients with autoimmune diseases appear to have an increased risk of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), primarily attributed to glucocorticoid use, although their clinical outcomes were not considerably worse when compared with individuals without...

dgalerts.docguide.com

Second a change of pace.Analysing the outbreak in lions and tigers at the Bronx Zoo.

Coronavirus Passed From People to Panthera in the Bronx

Bronx zookeepers, tigers, and African lions found infected with different SARS-CoV-2 genotypes

www.coronavirustoday.com

And many might think this is the best news of 2020.
.

 

[Bundy Bear]

New daily COVID infections reached its highest recorded number on 16 October with 413,206 first time over 400,000. Deaths for 16 October was 6,190, it has been hovering above the 5,000 mark for a few months now.
ABC America TV ran a story that suggested 40% of people with COVID had almost no symptoms, and designing is underway to make a rapid test to detect COVID in just a few minutes without a laboratory test which could be a game changer for travelers and nursing homes or other at risk population areas.