Hedging bets on the MR -> KF points devaluation, any advice?

[matc]

Hi all, I have a reasonable balance MR points (~5 million).

I will mostly likely use the points for trips to Europe, but I'm quite concerned about the upcoming devaluation of MR -> KF transfers. I'm worried availability of J class seats on Avios will be challenging to secure, especially for my family of 3.

I'm considering transferring 2 million points MR points to KF which would yield about 3 return flights to Europe on the assumption I use them before they expire in 3 years. My thinking is worst case I can transfer them back to Velocity before they expire and I'll still retain at least half of them.


Any thoughts or suggestions much appreciated.

 

[levelnine]

You won't find 3x J seats on QR and it is very difficult to find availability for 3 on BA, so you are correct that SQ is your best bet when looking for more than 2x J seats at a time to Europe.

 

[lilkid28]

Hi all, I have a reasonable balance MR points (~5 million).

I will mostly likely use the points for trips to Europe, but I'm quite concerned about the upcoming devaluation of MR -> KF transfers. I'm worried availability of J class seats on Avios will be challenging to secure, especially for my family of 3.

I'm considering transferring 2 million points MR points to KF which would yield about 3 return flights to Europe on the assumption I use them before they expire in 3 years. My thinking is worst case I can transfer them back to Velocity before they expire and I'll still retain at least half of them.


Any thoughts or suggestions much appreciated.

Happy to be your friend and a redemption nominee if you can't use the points in time!

 

[burmans]

Hi all, I have a reasonable balance MR points (~5 million).

I will mostly likely use the points for trips to Europe, but I'm quite concerned about the upcoming devaluation of MR -> KF transfers. I'm worried availability of J class seats on Avios will be challenging to secure, especially for my family of 3.

I'm considering transferring 2 million points MR points to KF which would yield about 3 return flights to Europe on the assumption I use them before they expire in 3 years. My thinking is worst case I can transfer them back to Velocity before they expire and I'll still retain at least half of them.


Any thoughts or suggestions much appreciated.

Sounds a reasonable strategy to me to transfer as many points as you think you will use in 4 years (3 years plus 6 month extension plus ability to book 12 months out) to KF.

 

[aikman]

Hopefully KF still allows transfers to Velocity in 2026 so you won't have to go on a mad rush to book several flights just for the sake of it.

 

[bbqwer]

One thing you can hope - velocity do not change transfer rate to SQ.

If transfer rate stays the same, when amex has velocity transfer bonus, you can end up with more SQ points.

 

[albyd]

I've been thinking about this too. I transferred all my St George Amplify points to KF reluctantly. I'm thinking I'll hang 5 on transferring any MR and see what Avois is like. I'm thinking of transferring the AU MR I do have (about 1m, not 5m unfortunately) to US MR. while AMEX US might keep the transfer ratio at 1:1, there's always the chance of an SQ devaluation given CX just devalued citing none since 2019. I don't think there's any risk free/foolproof strategy.

I don't like airlines devaluing but I also prefer that they can afford maintenance so the plane has a better chance of making it to its destination as maintenance hasn't been skimped on.

I think the US route is the "extra" optionality we have in this thread for those of us who have already taken the plunge on US AMEX.

 

[matc]

Thanks all some great advice and thoughts here!