here's an idea out of left field, to help fill seats

[ozfflyer]

But is that how airline ticketing really works?

I think not!

what do you mean ? Drip feeding is common, when airlines don't want to announce they are dumping seats. You might only find cheaper seats in 1 direction. This is where a travel agent comes in. They can look at everyday over a 3 week period, in a few seconds per date. Much much slower online & you can often get open jaws cheaper, which you can't search for online except 1 date at a time.

Meaning if I was going to Colorado, flying into SFO & out of LAX is fine. No reason to go in & out of LAX unless you wanted to stop there in both directions. The availability of ff seats LA or SF to Colorado is very similar.

 

[QF WP]

@straitman, don't let the truth get in the way of a good story. This is riveting reading...

 

[dajop]

what do you mean ? Drip feeding is common, when airlines don't want to announce they are dumping seats. You might only find cheaper seats in 1 direction. This is where a travel agent comes in. They can look at everyday over a 3 week period, in a few seconds per date. Much much slower online & you can often get open jaws cheaper, which you can't search for online except 1 date at a time.

For the standard consumer, you can look at tools like kayak to check +/-3 days on both outbound and return. It doesn't take long to look over the course of several weeks and whilst you can't do multi-dates for open jaws you can look for the cheapest dates to individual cities and combine in multi city, often with success.

For the more informed, expertflyer subscriber, a good starting point is looking for availability in specific fare classes (if you know the sale fare class), not as quick as travel agent, and not perfect, but a very good way to narrow down the search before going to airline or agent booking sites.

Of course, one can always call or visit TA if one has a good one, and trusts them. Obviously, calling them can be quick, visiting is often not.

 

[ozfflyer]

@straitman, don't let the truth get in the way of a good story. This is riveting reading...

not sure why you can't understand this concept ? Airlines have to be very careful that their frequent sales fares, don't become the benchmark for what many consumers expect to pay.

Know this happened after GFC when VA & DL started SYD/LAX/SYD & in peak season & there was way too much capacity & according to wholesalers, many people were walking away from their minimal deposit holidays.

Heard that many put down $200 in 1st half of year on a $20,000 holiday & when it came time to pay up in Sept/October, they simply said keep the $200 were not going anyway, which made the supply side even worse. Thus you could get $999 return SYD/LAX anytime in peak season & then for years after punters thought that what they should pay in peak season.

 

[QF WP]

I understand your hypothesis, however I don't agree with it. I love the in-depth analysis and discussion that can be found from sites like Travel Data Daily – Big Data and Loyalty or similar (very learned people in their field). Generally dumping a lot of seats cheaply only happens in certain limited circumstances (poor forward sales due to increased competition, or economic lethargy; perhaps a block of seats being returned by a travel agency - like will be happening now with Thomas Cook).

The thomas cook collapse is probably going to push up fares slightly for the next few months. The 600,000 people mentioned are surely those booked in the next 12 months, not those already away from home. Many airlines will make good money out of this collapse, but the issue remains, how to fill those aircraft with very poor loads.

I disagree. It will push fares up in the short term for those actually on holidays, that don't have a return flight and who need to return to their original departure point before the uplift is organised through the UK government. Then when all the seats are returned to (or taken back by) the airlines (as TC will have been given blocks of seats to sell on many flights, with many airlines, for up to the next 355 days), this will cause a glut of availability. Some will go back into normal inventory (those they believe can be sold in the noral course of business), some will go to stressed inventory sales (ie. those seats on flights within a short time before departure - to other TA's, or flash sales by the airlines). Insurers will assist those that were wise. Not sure if there is a UK Travel fidelity fund or similar, will be interesting to see what happens for those caught unwittingly.

 

[ozfflyer]

I understand your hypothesis, however I don't agree with it. I love the in-depth analysis and discussion that can be found from sites like Travel Data Daily – Big Data and Loyalty or similar (very learned people in their field). Generally dumping a lot of seats cheaply only happens in certain limited circumstances (poor forward sales due to increased competition, or economic lethargy; perhaps a block of seats being returned by a travel agency - like will be happening now with Thomas Cook).

find a travel agent who's been around for over 30 years & knows what they're doing & they will enlighten you on the ways.

She told us that at least 4 airlines she had checked, had very very poor loads Australia to USA after 1st week of January & they have to try & fill them somehow.

Another thing she said is happening, are groups that were booked approx 6 months ago & had put down $100 to $200 per person at a certain airfare, are reducing in size, ie. some walking away from their deposits for a number of reasons;

1) they are not going now
(they can save their $100 to $200 deposit per person if they can find someone to take their place, but this is unlikely, because of 2nd reason)

or

2) they've found a much cheaper fare on another airline or even the same airline

Yield managers at airlines are hardly going to reveal that they stuffed up.

 

[QF WP]

Not everybody who's been around along time are the most knowledgeable - things have changed quite a lot over that period (the time I've been flying). I have two TA's that I regularly use (both AFF members), both of whom are very knowledgeable...so I'm okay thanks.

 

[straitman]

what do you mean ? Drip feeding is common, when airlines don't want to announce they are dumping seats. You might only find cheaper seats in 1 direction. This is where a travel agent comes in. They can look at everyday over a 3 week period, in a few seconds per date. Much much slower online & you can often get open jaws cheaper, which you can't search for online except 1 date at a time.

Meaning if I was going to Colorado, flying into SFO & out of LAX is fine. No reason to go in & out of LAX unless you wanted to stop there in both directions. The availability of ff seats LA or SF to Colorado is very similar.

Drip feeding is common but only for very short periods as it is not sustainable over any longer period.

RE your second para the SFO and LAX passenger number balance each other. The airlines don't put on extra cheap seat just because people want to go a different route. That's actually where they make their money. That is how the yield management equation works.

 

[straitman]

I understand your hypothesis, however I don't agree with it. I love the in-depth analysis and discussion that can be found from sites like Travel Data Daily – Big Data and Loyalty or similar (very learned people in their field). Generally dumping a lot of seats cheaply only happens in certain limited circumstances (poor forward sales due to increased competition, or economic lethargy; perhaps a block of seats being returned by a travel agency - like will be happening now with Thomas Cook).

I disagree. It will push fares up in the short term for those actually on holidays, that don't have a return flight and who need to return to their original departure point before the uplift is organised through the UK government. Then when all the seats are returned to (or taken back by) the airlines (as TC will have been given blocks of seats to sell on many flights, with many airlines, for up to the next 355 days), this will cause a glut of availability. Some will go back into normal inventory (those they believe can be sold in the noral course of business), some will go to stressed inventory sales (ie. those seats on flights within a short time before departure - to other TA's, or flash sales by the airlines). Insurers will assist those that were wise. Not sure if there is a UK Travel fidelity fund or similar, will be interesting to see what happens for those caught unwittingly.

QF WP, I agree.

find a travel agent who's been around for over 30 years & knows what they're doing & they will enlighten you on the ways.

She told us that at least 4 airlines she had checked, had very very poor loads Australia to USA after 1st week of January & they have to try & fill them somehow.

Another thing she said is happening, are groups that were booked approx 6 months ago & had put down $100 to $200 per person at a certain airfare, are reducing in size, ie. some walking away from their deposits for a number of reasons;

1) they are not going now
(they can save their $100 to $200 deposit per person if they can find someone to take their place, but this is unlikely, because of 2nd reason)

or

2) they've found a much cheaper fare on another airline or even the same airline

Yield managers at airlines are hardly going to reveal that they stuffed up.

Many TAs who have been around for a long time are disappearing as the industry moves and they haven't kept up.

Some excess seats available they can be sorted by some flight cancellations.

The big picture is where yield management looks. What you're saying can work for a few seats here and there but not in the longer term. Remember yield management is not just about filling seats but about filling seats at the best possible yield.

An example from years ago was Kendall Aviation. They would always have one seat on every aircraft at full fare. Often the aircraft would leave with that seat empty but many times there would be a last minute businessman who would pay almost anything for the seat and that easily covered the times that the seat went empty.

Another example a young TA who got very upset with me for not booking with her as they had no exchange fees or extra ticket fees so had to be the best. What she didn't understand until later was that their exchange rate was awful and their tickets dearer which more than covered the difference.

 

[QF WP]

She told us that at least 4 airlines she had checked, had very very poor loads Australia to USA after 1st week of January & they have to try & fill them somehow.

Absolutely - the pax have missed the two big events - Christmas and New Year (which are huge in places like LA, New York). Therefore loads ex-Australia are low going over but increase the closer it gets to school holidays finishing. Most will be home for Australia Day as the kids then go back to school. Most people want to get home in time to get over the jetlag, unpack, wash and organise for Australia Day celebrations.

Another thing she said is happening, are groups that were booked approx 6 months ago & had put down $100 to $200 per person at a certain airfare, are reducing in size, ie. some walking away from their deposits for a number of reasons;

1) they are not going now
(they can save their $100 to $200 deposit per person if they can find someone to take their place, but this is unlikely, because of 2nd reason)

or

2) they've found a much cheaper fare on another airline or even the same airline

Absolutely - those might be focused in isolation on price and not the package that goes with that price (everything from website, booking process, seating, check-in ground staff, air crew, plane type, stopovers, total journey time, food & beverage, scheduling, etc). The cheaper is rarely the best...

Yield managers at airlines are hardly going to reveal that they stuffed up.

How so? They've already received the non-refundable part of the fare for little cost outlay thus far. Now they have the opportunity to sell the same seat and must decide on the liklihood of getting more, the same or less fare than the original fare bucket. Even discounting (by less than the non-refundable deposit forfeited) and they are ahead. It's not revenue that's important, it's profit per seat.

 

[UP4014]

An example from years ago was Kendall Aviation. They would always have one seat on every aircraft at full fare. Often the aircraft would leave with that seat empty but many times there would be a last minute businessman who would pay almost anything for the seat and that easily covered the times that the seat went empty.

QF do the same now on international, one business seat remains available on the day at full fare. There is often a businessman/women who needs to go at the last minute. If it's not sold someone further back might get lucky.

 

[dajop]

It's not revenue that's important, it's profit per seat.

Increasingly airlines are also talking about profit on a "real estate" basis, not just a seat basis (which is where premium economy is often talked up given the relatively small increase in plane space it takes up vs the increase in fares that people pay for it).

 

[dajop]

QF do the same now on international, one business seat remains available on the day at full fare. There is often a businessman/women who needs to go at the last minute. If it's not sold someone further back might get lucky.

I don't know what it's like these days, not a routine domestic flyer any more, but years ago it wouldn't be uncommon to only have full fare economy available at a peak time on a route like MEL-SYD and the flight be only 60% full, whereas the middle of the days flights with the red e-deals available would be packed to the brim.

 

[straitman]

Something that hasn’t been mentioned here until now is the relationship between freight and passengers.
I was just chatting to a former Cathay 747 captain mate and he reminded me that often they were happy to have light seat loads. This gave them much more availability to carry freight and that freight normally is a much bigger earner than passengers.

 

[jb747]

She told us that at least 4 airlines she had checked, had very very poor loads Australia to USA after 1st week of January & they have to try & fill them somehow.

From memory February was often a pretty quiet month, but generally only in one direction.

 

[jase05]

Something that hasn’t been mentioned here until now is the relationship between freight and passengers.
I was just chatting to a former Cathay 747 captain mate and he reminded me that often they were happy to have light seat loads. This gave them much more availability to carry freight and that freight normally is a much bigger earner than passengers.

Being involved in the industry I can tell you it is the same on domestic routes

 

[MEL_Traveller]

Something that hasn’t been mentioned here until now is the relationship between freight and passengers.
I was just chatting to a former Cathay 747 captain mate and he reminded me that often they were happy to have light seat loads. This gave them much more availability to carry freight and that freight normally is a much bigger earner than passengers.

Oh... freight has been mentioned in just about every thread where the issue of cheap seats (indicating an impending recession) comes up. The OP doesn’t accept aircraft carry freight, or that it is the flight as a whole, not just pax, that airlines are interested in.

My only comment in this thread is that it doesn’t cost airlines any more to fly seats in peak periods than off peak. So airlines aren’t necessarily losing money... they’re just not making as big a profit.

Airlines can’t always rely on selling seats at high prices in peak periods... the laws of competition mean in most cases someone will come in to undercut them. Easier to do these days when new planes are smaller and far more fuel efficient (you don’t need a 747 to compete in the USA-AU market these days and can get away with a 250 seat 787, high on premium seats).

 

[juddles]

Just tried to read this whole thread but very quickly I got lost. All I can say for sure is that I admire the OP's passion for....something??

 

[ozfflyer]

From memory February was often a pretty quiet month, but generally only in one direction.

yep Feb is always quite which is why many airlines have reduced schedules in Feb, but now that quiet period starts after 1st week of January not 1 Feb. If any long ahul airline has 20-30% load factor ex Australia 8 January onwards, they can't in most cases reduce size of aircraft. They also can't cancel flight as in all likelyhood, the return flight has a much better load factor already, so they are stuck. Yes many families want to be back before kids start school, but think this may have changed also. Have friends with young kids, who would say need to be back week before school, not they are arriving day before as it was so much cheaper. Some with primary school kids are letting the kids have the 1st week of school (ie 3 days) off.

 

[ozfflyer]

Just tried to read this whole thread but very quickly I got lost. All I can say for sure is that I admire the OP's passion for....something??

new marketing ideas needed !!!

It seems many would spend thousands of $$$ on a big TV on interest free, so why not airfares/travel ?

Travel agents don't have a lot of margin to play with but airlines/hotels/resorts do, if you think that the alternative is empty seats/beds etc. With interest rates so low & looking like getting lower, some people would surely jump at the chance of a holiday they could pay off interest free. I've been getting letters form Amex etc. saying something long the lines, any purchase over $x can be spread out over so many months, interest free.

Don't think interest free has been used much in travel, just mainly in electrical goods, which are perishable (new models just around the corner) but nothing like the perishability of airline seats.