One other point to consider is looking at other hotels in the area that aren't Accor. I know this might be heresy on this forum, but sometimes I won't stay at an Accor property here in Australia despite me having Accor+Platinum status, if the price isn't right. Check your Expedia and see what the hotel availability looks like. If you hold points in other hotel programs, now is a good time to check to see what an award stay will set you back. For instance, the Crowne Plaza Hobart has a rate of $550/night during that time. If I use my IHG points that'll set me back 59,000 points/night (which works out to $450/night given how much I bought said points for). It's also crucial to book these things many months out, for this exact reason. For instance, I stayed at the AC Hotel Times Square in New York on New Years eve. That booking was made in June using points (35,000 per night), which represented substantial savings over the $1000/night rate I was seeing at the time. Now you can say what you want about Hobart, but I can assure you Hobart hotels are not in as high demand as those in New York during the New Year's.
Hope that provides some insight.