Jeju Air Flight 2216 Crashes in South Korea

Australia is a minnow, so if it came out with something that wasn’t already required elsewhere, we simply wouldn’t be getting new aircraft.

But, you’re missing the point. It simply doesn’t matter if the recorders are powered, if the data sources aren’t powered. So, you need to provide backup power to the recorder, and then to the data bus, and then to the network hubs, and so on until you reach the item you’re interested in. And it isn’t outputting anything, ‘cos it’s dead. It may work with CVRs, where you’re only trying to power the recorder, data bus, and microphones, but it’s not a small thing.

My guess though, would be that only aircraft that have been certified after 2010 might have backup. And that sounds like the 220, and probably the 350, but nothing else. Even then, I’m only expecting CVR, as the other is just too hard for the minuscule benefit.
So would it be fair to sum up what we "know" as -

- for some reason the power was lost to both the CVR and data recorder about 5 minutes before the emergency landing, but that couldn't have been caused by both engines shutting down or being shut down because after the recorders lost power the pilots elected to go around and still regained altitude and then completed the turn and landed? I guess the other interesting thing is that from all information we have - the recorders both stopped some seconds before the pilots decided to go around - and obviously the pilots had sufficient confidence in the engine(s) at the decision point or they wouldn't have gone around.
 
I doubt that he had any reason to expect the overrun contained a solid obstacle and may well have figured that ending in the overrun wasn’t going to be too bad an outcome.
Possibly may not have considered/expected the huge float that occurred for quite some distance down the runway either - if that hadn't of occurred then the solid object in the overrun may not have even come into play.
 
5 minutes before the emergency landing
Apparently 4min before impact
But I'd like to see the actual timeline
Last recorded words in the CVR was "Mayday".

couldn't have been caused by both engines shutting down
The ADSB, CVR and FDR all powered from the AC electrical bus - ie powered by the engine generators.

and still regained altitude
Where is the data for that? Last recorded altitude on ADS-B was 900 feet. An unpowered aircraft can gain altitude at the cost of airspeed - you don't necessarily need engine power to go higher. What was the highest altitude in the GA.?

They did have some control - as they were able to GA and land from the opposite direction- hydraulic pressure does not suddenly drop to zero when engine thrust goes to zero - as stated above there is a nominal amount of hydraulic pressure generated from a windmilling but otherwise dead engine depending on airspeed.

Does a windmilling engine also produce some electrical power above a certain IAS?

obviously the pilots had sufficient confidence in the engine(s) at the decision point
Speculative. I don't think we can read their mind to know what they were thinking nor hear what they said in the 4min
 
Where is the data for that? Last recorded altitude on ADS-B was 900 feet. An unpowered aircraft can gain altitude at the cost of airspeed - you don't necessarily need engine power to go higher. What was the highest altitude in the GA.?
Was basing the gaining of altitude from knowing that they were down to 900 feet and then @jb747 's earlier comment that they would have needed 2000 feet of altitude to make the turn if they didn't have power.
 
Was basing the gaining of altitude
Unfortunately there is no actual data on that. The crash investigators should be able to recreate the flight path profile based on available video and ATC radar (will there be a record?), known aircraft dynamics and aircraft mass using a simulator. Basically an exercise in kinetic and potential energy
 
So would it be fair to sum up what we "know" as -

- for some reason the power was lost to both the CVR and data recorder about 5 minutes before the emergency landing, but that couldn't have been caused by both engines shutting down or being shut down because after the recorders lost power the pilots elected to go around and still regained altitude and then completed the turn and landed? I guess the other interesting thing is that from all information we have - the recorders both stopped some seconds before the pilots decided to go around - and obviously the pilots had sufficient confidence in the engine(s) at the decision point or they wouldn't have gone around.
Loss of both generators pretty much has to be tied with engines. But, it cannot possibly have happened before the GA, as you simply cannot go around without them. Well, not for long enough, anyway. From the point where data is lost on the approach, the aircraft barely had enough energy to continue straight ahead to the runway. Think BA 38. The berm may well have still been hit, but from the other direction. The upshot is that we appear to have contradictory information, which probably means that it's wrong.
Possibly may not have considered/expected the huge float that occurred for quite some distance down the runway either - if that hadn't of occurred then the solid object in the overrun may not have even come into play.
The entire glide approach thing would never have been practiced (in the 737 sim). They may have had a go, just out of curiousity, but it never would have been practiced to proficiency, and the 'numbers' would not have been in the manuals. If you don't know exactly how much height you'll need for the turn, and are making it up on the spot, then the entire process becomes one that involves more than a little luck. My figure of 2,000' is just a guess, basically more than a Macchi, but less than an A-4.

I don't think there was ever any chance of it stopping on the runway, even if he'd managed to land in the first 1,500'. The other examples we've had of aircraft like this doing gear up landings (757 & 767) have both used up large amounts of runway, and they were both configured with normal flap, and so their speeds were much slower.
Apparently 4min before impact
But I'd like to see the actual timeline.
You and me, both.
The ADSB, CVR and FDR all powered from the AC electrical bus - ie powered by the engine generators.
Probably off different buses, too.
Where is the data for that? Last recorded altitude on ADS-B was 900 feet. An unpowered aircraft can gain altitude at the cost of airspeed - you don't necessarily need engine power to go higher. What was the highest altitude in the GA.?
900' a couple of miles short of the runway, gear and flap out, and at a speed of around 150kts. That just doesn't get you to the other end at the better part of 200kts, and clean. EK was in about the same configuration, and they didn't go far. Energy has to have been added along the way, and there's only one way to do that.
They did have some control - as they were able to GA and land from the opposite direction- hydraulic pressure does not suddenly drop to zero when engine thrust goes to zero - as stated above there is a nominal amount of hydraulic pressure generated from a windmilling but otherwise dead engine depending on airspeed.
Flight control hydraulics would be available from a windmilling engine, but you'd need the speed to be sufficient. Probably in excess of 150kts or so.
Does a windmilling engine also produce some electrical power above a certain IAS?
Once the engine rpm drops down below about 60% the generators will drop offline. I don't know that you could even dive from altitude and keep the engine rpm above that. So, no, I would expect no generator power. The APU would be your only potential source.
 
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Loss of both generators pretty much has to be tied with engines. But, it cannot possibly have happened before the GA, as you simply cannot go around without them. Well, not for long enough, anyway. From the point where data is lost on the approach, the aircraft barely had enough energy to continue straight ahead to the runway. Think BA 38. The berm may well have still been hit, but from the other direction. The upshot is that we appear to have contradictory information, which probably means that it's wrong.
Exactly - the information we have when examined in sequence basically contradicts itself - the recorders ceased working (presumably because of loss of power) before the go-around - but one or more engines were still producing quite reasonable power.

Either there is an error in the information - or we are not seeing something. Will be interesting to see what they have figured out by the time the preliminary report comes out.
 
Is some talk that they conducted another GA on the last approach, cleaned up, but then for whatever reason abandoned that and continued for the glide.
 
Would they be able to re-create the conditions in a simulator and estimate GA flight path with some assumptions, eyewitness and video accounts?
I'm sure it's been played to death in various sims around the world already.
Is some talk that they conducted another GA on the last approach, cleaned up, but then for whatever reason abandoned that and continued for the glide.
I saw that early in the piece, and then a denial. I don't think it fits the 4-5 minute timeline, but it would make sense if they had a bit more time.
 
I am bothered by the lack of a transcript of the comms by now, it would go some way to clearing the air so to speak.
 
The crash investigators will have it but its public release IMO generally should not precede the report.
I doubt it will clear the air. A premature release will likely have the effect of muddying the waters
ATC transcripts are released well before any reports in almost all cases as they are an excellent source of facts that hardly muddy the waters, they are usually well and truely in the public domain before then anyway (eg last years Haneda incident). We have had a summarised transcript that has more holes that Swiss cheese, a statement from authorities that they were close to finalising the CVR transcript on the 3rd Jan and nothing else. While I acknowledge aviate, navigate then communicate is the general principle, there must have been more.
 
I suspect we have most of the ATC transcript already from bits that have been released. Remember the pilots principal roles in order is to Aviate, Navigate and Communicate.

Along the lines of Go Around.. Mayday mayday mayday. bird strike. Request Runway 019.

I'm surprised based on the timestamp and speed data we have from ADS-B that someone hasn't come up with an estimated plot for a teardrop approach.

This image (from pprune puts together most of the known data).

1000015374.jpg
 
Decision making... Electing 1 x 180degree, rather than 2 x 180degrees required to get back to the same runway (remember PIA 8303 at Karachi didn't make it). Where to put down... presumably no Hudson River or clear of built up areas.

Aviate... very low altitude so possibly insufficient time for full analysis of what functions do or don't work after the ga. Turn/line-up/descent rate/don't stall with deteriorating or no thrust. Presumably degraded controls and avionics.

Hindsight analyst may find fault but to unqualified me, seems an amazing piece of airmanship (notwithstanding wheels up I don't understand). Unfortunately was a concrete wall at the end of the runway, rather than a golf course like Bangkok. Maybe it wasn't all luck getting it back and down, maybe he was a very very highly skilled pilot, qantas (edit: full service airlines don't) doesn't have the monopoly.
 
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Decision making... Electing 1 x 180degree, rather than 2 x 180degrees required to get back to the same runway (remember PIA 8303 at Karachi didn't make it). Where to put down... presumably no Hudson River or clear of built up areas.
It's all about energy. At the point the ADSB stops, he's barely got enough to get to the runway without any turn at all. But, not only does he manage a 180º, but he lands at a speed appreciably faster than he his at the end of the recording. The energy to do that has to have come from the engines. But it begs the question as to why the ADSB dropped out.

There’s plenty of Hudson equivalent, have a look at the map. With the luxury of hindsight, possibly a better option.

Hindsight analyst may find fault but to unqualified me, seems an amazing piece of airmanship (notwithstanding wheels up I don't understand).
It may well be. Prune is normally very quick to pass judgement, and apart from a very few souls, most are withholding that, as there's simply too many gaps in the timeline. The wheels up is pretty obviously a drag reduction decision. Once you stick them out in the breeze you pretty much double your sink rate. You'd be very careful about how you took flap or gear, as misjudging it will put you irredeemably short. Of course in this case he's ended up with too much energy, but I don't know that it would have been evident early enough to take the gear. Remember that this sort of thing is never practiced, nor are any of the numbers (gates) in the manual. I expect that the last time he did this sort of landing would have been in basic flying training. And having made the decision to throw the aircraft away, the overrun doesn't look to bad. The berm...I'll bet it had never been noticed.

Unfortunately was a concrete wall at the end of the runway, rather than a golf course like Bangkok. Maybe it wasn't all luck getting it back and down, maybe he was a very very highly skilled pilot, qantas (edit: full service airlines don't) doesn't have the monopoly.
There's obviously a lot to be said for golf courses. I know that many airports have fairly nasty terrain at the runway ends, but this one isn't a natural obstacle. It's been put there, and whilst it may obey the letter of the rules, is really too solid, too close, and completely unnecessary.
 
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It's all about energy. At the point the ADSB stops, he's barely got enough to get to the runway without any turn at all. But, not only does he manage a 180º, but he lands at a speed appreciably faster than he his at the end of the recording. The energy to do that has to have come from the engines. But it begs the question as to why the ADSB dropped out.

Actually there's plenty of Hudson equivalent, have a look at the map. With the luxury of hindsight, possibly a better option.


It may well be. Prune is normally very quick to pass judgement, and apart from a very few souls, most are withholding that, as there's simply too many gaps in the timeline. The wheels up is pretty obviously a drag reduction decision. Once you stick them out in the breeze you pretty much double your sink rate. You'd be very careful about how you took flap or gear, as misjudging it will put you irredeemably short. Of course in this case he's ended up with too much energy, but I don't know that it would have been evident early enough to take the gear. Remember that this sort of thing is never practiced, nor are any of the numbers (gates) in the manual. I expect that the last time he did this sort of landing would have been in basic flying training. And having made the decision to throw the aircraft away, the overrun doesn't look to bad. The berm...I'll bet it had never been noticed.


There's obviously a lot to be said for golf courses. I know that many airports have fairly nasty terrain at the runway ends, but this one isn't a natural obstacle. It's been put there, and whilst it may obey the letter of the rules, is really too solid, too close, and completely unnecessary.
And not just the ADSB - why also at the same time as the ADSB stopped did both recorders stop - when they are on different buses? Clearly they didn't lose both engines at that moment - as you said he has barely enough energy when the recording stopped to reach the runway when the recording stopped - at 500 feet altitude and 2000 metres from the end of the runway - lose both engines on final at 500 feet and you wouldn't be getting one going again to do a go-around.

One thing that picture does do is show the location where the person was located that filmed what could be a compressor stall of the right engine - I said in an earlier post that I didn't think that anyone would be in that area but obviously they were. Clearly though from the angle that you can see in the photo - the plane wasn't at 500 feet and 2000 metres away when that compressor stall occurred - it looks to have happened after the go-around was initiated. The go-around looks to have been initiated at about 2.3nm (4250 metres) from the end of the runway, then the compressor stall(?) in the right engine has happened about another 1.6nm / 3000 metres / ?35 seconds further along the flight path.
 
I specifically said ADSB, because we know the exact time that it dropped out. Whilst it’s logical to assume, we actually don’t know that that is the same time that the recorders stopped, or if the two recorders stopped at the same time as each other. So you could have all three stopping at once, or a timeline with the three dropping off at different points.
 
I’m sure I’ve seen one of the landing videos where you can see what looks pretty clearly like engine exhaust distortion from the right hand engine.
Might have been on Juan Browne’s first video on the event.


Watch from about 7:30 minutes in.
 

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