Jetstar nonstop services between Australia and the Cook Islands

[Saab34]

This route coming up 18 months in operation, thought I would look at some of the numbers.

Still appears to be unprofitable, average LF is around the mid 60s. The best month they had was around 80%, seemed to be a one off.

Things seemed to have deteriorated since they added the fourth weekly flight in March, numbers are have been flat and very consistent each month at around 2600pax each way, LF 65%.

I can’t see this route going on forever with these numbers, certainly would be better suited for a A320Neo which they have coming next month, I assume it can make the distance. Fuel and equipment overheads are certainly high for this route, especially the inbound with heavy fuel required at a price premium outport.

 

[ANstar]

Loads don't dictate profitability. The fares on RAR are usually quite high - Ive seen it nearly $1800 return in school holidays as an example. Not to mention JQ will also have revenue from bags, food etc on top of that.

 

[henrus]

I can’t see this route going on forever with these numbers,

The route has a subsidy from the Cook Islands government. Pre covid they were giving Air NZ $$$ to operate SYD-RAR and RAR-LAX. In the post covid edition it's Jetstar on the SYD-RAR route and Hawaiian Airlines on the RAR-HNL route instead. It was only in March this year they added an additional service bringing the weekly total to 4 flights per week.

In the last few weeks they've apparently re-signed so clearly both JQ and the Cook Islands gov is happy enough with both the $$ and the outcome. It's over US$10m per year split between the two routes and with Air NZ struggling to operate basic trans tasman flights due to aircraft shortages I can't see them rushing back in to compete with JQ and try and win the contract (even then Air NZ was just once per week).

Because the flight is from Australia the airline operating would need AU traffic rights meaning you're limited to JQ/QF/VA/NZ. NZ is out, JQ/QF group is already operating and it leaves just VA who are busy using their only suitable the aircraft (737-8) on their existing longer routes.

 

[randompunter]

Did both HNL - RAR and RAR - SYD a few weeks ago in Y. JQ flight was pretty full but it was school hols. At over 7 hours it was a very long flight on a narrow body in those thin JQ Y seats. At least we didn't have to divert to Auckland to refuel. Saw on flight radar that 3 flights had done that in September.

The HA flight however was perhaps only about 25% full. Other than J pax they crammed the rest of us down the back of the A321 citing balance reasons and made several announcements about not changing seats. I've been on empty flights before and haven't seen this, was it perhaps a cargo thing? Anyway it made it feel quite cramped.

 

[Notyourbag]

Just flew Syd - Rar and loads were pretty decent. Probably around 80% full outside of school holidays

 

[BrianQQ]

I've been on empty flights before and haven't seen this, was it perhaps a cargo thing? Anyway it made it feel quite cramped.

Happens quite often when I was flying across NA. Only happened once in Australia, on an empty SYD-MEL leg.

 

[jpp42]

Other than J pax they crammed the rest of us down the back of the A321 citing balance reasons and made several announcements about not changing seats. I've been on empty flights before and haven't seen this, was it perhaps a cargo thing? Anyway it made it feel quite cramped.

This isn't that uncommon but should only apply during taxi/takeoff/landing? You should have been able to move forward during cruise to relax in a different seat.

 

[Harrison_133]

SYD-RAR to operate 5x weekly from May 2025.

Source: Jetstar Airways Expands Sydney – Rarotonga Service in NS25 — AeroRoutes

 

[henrus]

Source: Jetstar Airways Expands Sydney – Rarotonga Service in NS25 — AeroRoutes

AeroRoutes a bit slow on this one, JQ announced this 2 weeks ago hence the posts above from #34.

 

[brokenagain]

This will be a 320NEO flight when it arrives. 60-80% LF on the 321 is solid considering the pax numbers are capped which won’t happen on the 320.

 

[ANstar]

This will be a 320NEO flight when it arrives. 60-80% LF on the 321 is solid considering the pax numbers are capped which won’t happen on the 320.

The 320neo has less range than the 321neoLR so cant see it being a 320neo flight.

 

[Saab34]

It seems that is the case when looking at the numbers. A320ceo with Sharklets has similar range compared to the 320N.

It’s the LR that’s the weapon on these routes.

I think driving some frequency might assist with driving more traffic on these routes.

 

[henrus]

I think driving some frequency might assist with driving more traffic on these routes.

Let’s not forget the Cook Islands government was throwing a lot of money at a once weekly 767 which eventually got switched to a 787.

Having an A321 several times per week is a big win for them as well and who knows if they’re paying more for an extra frequency.

 

[Saab34]

I only say that, as if you look at the past increases from 3 to 4, overall traffic didn’t shift that much at all. However 5, certainly gives people more options in terms of planning so might be more attractive.

 

[randompunter]

Wonder what the loads are like on the 2:15am NZ947 flights? I guess it could be good for picking up connections out of AKL, but a 4 hour red eye on an all Y A320 sounds brutal. I would rather get the daytime NZ945 on a 787/777 and stay in a hotel if going via AKL. Guess those weird NZ947 flights a couple of times a week are something cargo or subsidy related.

Anyway, I kind of regret not doing the old VA status run that also departed RAR at stupid o'clock.

 

[Catweazle]

Just flew Syd - Rar and loads were pretty decent. Probably around 80% full outside of school holidays

Agreed, we flew back last week and the flight was pretty full. There's also been a lot of travel blogs, mags, websites etc reporting on the Cook Islands recently.

Seats are a struggle for larger folks after a few hours though. I felt for them. Worth paying $30 for the extra leg room.

 

[Rayesfeg]

Wonder what the loads are like on the 2:15am NZ947 flights?

Bit off topic here but I seriously can not work out the business logic of Air NZ in running flights within the Pacific Islands at ridiculous times like this.

I regularly fly to PPT and my 2 options are Air NZ or Air Tahiti. I would like to build my status with Air NZ but I will never fly with them as the NZ902 gets in to PPT at 1.30am and then the NZ903 departs PPT at 3am... Really struggle to see the logic in running those.

 

[henrus]

Bit off topic here but I seriously can not work out the business logic of Air NZ in running flights within the Pacific Islands at ridiculous times like this.

No different to a terrible overnight time on this JQ flight. These leisure routes are price sensitive not time sensitive, if the overnight flight is the only option or is even $50 cheaper then the daytime option then people are likely to book it.

 

[markis10]

Flights at weird times is often indicative of leisure travel markets and airlines realising planes don’t make money on the ground.