Jetstar to commence nonstop services between Australia and the Cook Islands

[Saab34]

This route coming up 18 months in operation, thought I would look at some of the numbers.

Still appears to be unprofitable, average LF is around the mid 60s. The best month they had was around 80%, seemed to be a one off.

Things seemed to have deteriorated since they added the fourth weekly flight in March, numbers are have been flat and very consistent each month at around 2600pax each way, LF 65%.

I can’t see this route going on forever with these numbers, certainly would be better suited for a A320Neo which they have coming next month, I assume it can make the distance. Fuel and equipment overheads are certainly high for this route, especially the inbound with heavy fuel required at a price premium outport.

 

[ANstar]

Loads don't dictate profitability. The fares on RAR are usually quite high - Ive seen it nearly $1800 return in school holidays as an example. Not to mention JQ will also have revenue from bags, food etc on top of that.

 

[henrus]

I can’t see this route going on forever with these numbers,

The route has a subsidy from the Cook Islands government. Pre covid they were giving Air NZ $$$ to operate SYD-RAR and RAR-LAX. In the post covid edition it's Jetstar on the SYD-RAR route and Hawaiian Airlines on the RAR-HNL route instead. It was only in March this year they added an additional service bringing the weekly total to 4 flights per week.

In the last few weeks they've apparently re-signed so clearly both JQ and the Cook Islands gov is happy enough with both the $$ and the outcome. It's over US$10m per year split between the two routes and with Air NZ struggling to operate basic trans tasman flights due to aircraft shortages I can't see them rushing back in to compete with JQ and try and win the contract (even then Air NZ was just once per week).

Because the flight is from Australia the airline operating would need AU traffic rights meaning you're limited to JQ/QF/VA/NZ. NZ is out, JQ/QF group is already operating and it leaves just VA who are busy using their only suitable the aircraft (737-8) on their existing longer routes.

 

[randompunter]

Did both HNL - RAR and RAR - SYD a few weeks ago in Y. JQ flight was pretty full but it was school hols. At over 7 hours it was a very long flight on a narrow body in those thin JQ Y seats. At least we didn't have to divert to Auckland to refuel. Saw on flight radar that 3 flights had done that in September.

The HA flight however was perhaps only about 25% full. Other than J pax they crammed the rest of us down the back of the A321 citing balance reasons and made several announcements about not changing seats. I've been on empty flights before and haven't seen this, was it perhaps a cargo thing? Anyway it made it feel quite cramped.

 

[Notyourbag]

Just flew Syd - Rar and loads were pretty decent. Probably around 80% full outside of school holidays