Your feedback has given me some food for thought! While I’ve got LATAM Black status, I may as well use it since I haven’t been to South America and I’m unlikely to visit again. I’ve booked Qantas Business awards to and from SCL as the preferred long haul option.
A colleague of mine recently flew Sydney to Santiago in Qantas Business (also booked as a classic award) and wasn't too impressed. They mentioned that the service wasn't good and they ran out of food.
But I’m now thinking about booking fully refundable one-ways with LATAM for the same dates and trying my luck with their coupon upgrade lottery. I’d book their fully refundable ticket (creatively named ‘full”) which can be cancelled up until departure so I could quite literally wait until a couple of hours prior to even heading to the airport to see if the upgrade clears. If it clears, I pay a small Qantas award cancellation fee.
The one thing I don't have experience with is how easy it is to get a refund from LATAM for flights. I haven't had to do it, and the concern would be making a cancellation at such short notice would be quite stressful. For flights to Santiago there would clear about 12 hours prior to departure (give or take). In my case it cleared 11 hours and 53 minutes before hand. Also realize that if it doesn't clear at the 12 hour mark it could clear any time up to the gate. Indeed, in Brazil our JFK upgrade cleared at the lounge about an hour prior to departure.
The 787-9 currently serving MEL is configured in the old 2x2x2 which doesn’t appeal. But, for roughly $1,700 AUD fully ticketed I’m willing to forgo some creature comforts and retain the Qantas points (and surcharges) which are arguably worth a lot more than $1,700.
There is also the Sydney to Santiago service with LATAM (LA800). Checking SeatGuru, the seat layout is similar to that of my JFK flight (i.e. 1-2-1 layout):
The reason I chose MEL > SCL instead of SYD > SCL (which would make more sense by the way since I am based in Sydney) is for several reasons. First, and foremost there is less competition on this route than SYD > SCL. Second, the MEL > SCL service is nonstop whereas SYD > SCL has a stop in AKL. Consequently, if you have to faff about with transferring at AKL and also it means your LATAM flight gets in too late during the day to catch onwards connections with LATAM to Brazil. However, the downside (it would seem) is they use the 787 with the 2-2-2 layout versus the 1-2-1 layout. Now LATAM will be reintroducing nonstop service between SYD and SCL later this year (I think in October).
What do you think about this approach? Any advice?
From my experience, your biggest hurdle against snagging a seat isn't other elites or people upgrading. Rather it simply comes down to if there are a couple of business class seats are available. In the flights I have booked with LATAM, I was either #1 or #2 on the upgrade list as LATAM Black. So literally, so long as there was a couple business class seats available I'd get that. There are times of the week where it would seem there are more spare business class seats (from my experience that was Tuesday to Thursday departure on LATAM). There are also routes that are less popular than others (again MEL > SCL seems less popular as SYD > SCL which also picks up passengers in NZ). You'll want to do your homework on ExpertFlyer.
Supposing the $1700 AUD you quoted was return, then this comes down to a value judgement. If I believe a business classic award is 108,400 points per passenger each way to/from SCL on QF. So you would stand to save 216,800 QF points if you book this and the upgrades clear each way. So the question is now whether you value 216,800 QFF points as much as ($1700-$x) AUD where x is the taxes and fees Qantas charges for such a booking?
Some other points - you won't have access to the Qantas First lounge if you fly on LATAM as a Black (even if you hold Platinum status), I verified that at the QF Flounge in MEL. You would have access to the QF Business lounge as Black, and you'd also have access to the quite nice LATAM VIP lounge in SCL. If your upgrade doesn't clear you'd still have the best seats in coach, since LATAM, unlike Qantas, lets you choose whatever seat you want in coach as Black, including the coveted extra legrooms.
The point I guess I should make is this whole thing is a gamble, it is not 100% certain, that's how upgrades are. If you are comfortable with the (low in my experience) prospect of being seated in coach, and are willing to do the homework to stack the odds in your favour (i.e. using ExpertFlyer to determine which dates have more J availability), it can be worth your while. One note on ExpertFlyer for LATAM: the highest inventory level for each fare code is 7. So if you see J7 that means there are 7
or more seats available. The LATAM business class fare codes are J, C, D, I, and Z. If you see something like J7, C7, D7, Z7, I7, that generally means the business class cabin is relatively empty. The other point I'll mention is that the value really kicks in when you are travelling with others since you can apply upgrade requests for yourself and anyone travelling with you (or on that flight for that matter). So for me the value here was huge since it wasn't just 2 long haul flights. It was 2 long hauls for 2 passengers.
-RooFlyer88