MEL-ORD booking strategy

[Wheretonext]

My gf is running in the Chicago Marathon on the 12th Oct 25 and looking to secure some reward fights to get there on the 9th Oct. There is a direct QFF flight available to LAX in economy (QF93) arriving at 6am or 7am (Weird that AA shows the flight arriving at 7am while Qantas shows 6am). The connecting AA flight at 9:35am (AA2169) has not been released as yet. It looks like AA do not release those seats for another month.

Would appreciate any advice on the below strategies:
1) Book QFF economy seat now and request Qantas to add the LAX-ORD leg once it is released (hopefully that results in the lower point cost even though I assume it will cost me 5k to change)
2) Wait a month and hope that both flights will be available to book
3) Wait until Qantas does their dump of award flights availability and book gf on the business flight so she can get to Chicago in a more relaxed state
4) We have Velocity points as well so we have the option to roll the dice and hope that United has available for business or economy throughout the next year (apparently they are known for having good reward availability closer to the date)

Usually I am flexible to go different days or routes to my desired destinations but this time I am more restricted due to my gf needing to go as reasonably direct and on a specific day. Needing advice as I haven't been monitoring the Mel-Lax leg so not sure of the pattern and hardness of finding rewards.
Thanks

 

[levelnine]

Neither 3 nor 4 are guaranteed, so your best bet is to do 1 or 2 and watch for 3 or 4.

1 is the safest, so if you have points to spare, pay the 5K change fee. But there's generally good Y availability to the US far out, so 2 is an okay gamble.

 

[cjd600]

yeah, I'd do 1 and watch for 3

 

[elanshin]

Option 5.

MEL - HND( potentially via Syd on JL) QF
HND - ORD in F on JL

Have a play around, there should be a fair bit of JL availability.

Edit: Don't think this will be on JL's new a351 but it would still be likely the best QFF points offering.

 

[elanshin]

Option 5.

MEL - HND( potentially via Syd on JL) QF
HND - ORD in F on JL

Have a play around, there should be a fair bit of JL availability.

Edit: Don't think this will be on JL's new a351 but it would still be likely the best QFF points offering.
View attachment 412990

If that costs too much from points, JL has J SYD - HND, HND - ORD the next day too.

 

[Lynda2475]

Did you check availability for MEL-DFW(or SYD-DFW) + DFW-ORD?

DFW is a larger AA hub than LAX and also has more frequent flights to ORD.

 

[Wheretonext]

Thanks for all the advice. Really appreciate it and lots to think about

But there's generally good Y availability to the US far out, so 2 is an okay gamble.

I am leaning towards this option given the advice that Y availability is generally good this far out. That way I only need to pay 5k change fee once if any J availability comes up throughout the year during the big releases.

Option 5.

MEL - HND( potentially via Syd on JL) QF
HND - ORD in F on JL

I noticed this option when playing around with different legs. Initially I was excited by this option but then cooled on it off due to needing to stay a night in Tokyo and my gf won't be able to make use of the F class alcohol (due to the upcoming race). It adds more flying time and extra back and forth from airport with a higher point cost and taxes and we can't fully enjoy the F class experience.

Did you check availability for MEL-DFW + DFW - ORD?

DFW is a larger AA hub than LAX and also has more frequent flights to ORD.

Yes checked this and only had Y available via Fiji

I need to be careful with the amount of points we use as we are planning on flying ORD to EZE after the race to spend a week in Buenos Aires and Mendoza. We wanted somewhere warm but the Caribbean is still in hurricane season and the other option of Okinawa is at the end of their Typhon season. Argentina won't be beach but should be great food and wine and sightseeing. Seemed like the best way to get home as I find there is usually good J availability SCL-MEL when they get released.

The leading strategy in my mind will be:
Wait a month for when AA release their rewards and hopefully be able to book Y MEL-LAX and LAX - ORD and then monitor for a J release for the next year. At that same time I should be able to find rewards to get from ORD-EZE and then finally book the SCL-MEL in J when they are released.

If the strategy to ORD fails, I will sign up to a reward alert website to monitor Y & J flights. Worst case scenario will be that I need to buy a one way Y flight to ORD and hope for a points upgrade but I suspect this would be very costly due to being one way. Having Velocity points as a back up might help open up other options if this strategy fails.

 

[Lynda2475]

Also Qantas will have the A380 back on the SYD-DFW route by that time next year which should open up more reward seats as much more capacity than the Dreamliner currently in use.

Noting that Buenos Aires wont be particularly warm in Oct, you might be lucky to get the odd 22C day. It would actually be warmer in Southern US states (would be averaging 27C in New Orleans) but yes it is Hurricane seasons so that is a risk. Coming home via Fiji or Hawaii could give a nice warm break.