More 787 delays?

[ANstar]

I thought that QF could lease some Oasis 744's to assist with the transition of the 743's out of the fleet and also provide coverage whilst the QF 744's get refurbished with Y+ and new interiors.

They already have 2 x domestic 332's coming mid year to replace some 743's and Im sure that with the A380's coming online the other 2 or so 743's can be got rid of with exisitng capcity plans.

As I said earlier, JQ are the one that hurt the most with the delays and the leasing of more 332's proves this.

I would expect it doesnt really hurt QF too much with their 767's as they can just delay retirement, whereas it really was clipping JQ's expansions plans.

That said, we may see more 332 leasing deals if QF have more delays

 

[oz_mark]

They already have 2 x domestic 332's coming mid year to replace some 743's and Im sure that with the A380's coming online the other 2 or so 743's can be got rid of with exisitng capcity plans.

As I said earlier, JQ are the one that hurt the most with the delays and the leasing of more 332's proves this.

I would expect it doesnt really hurt QF too much with their 767's as they can just delay retirement, whereas it really was clipping JQ's expansions plans.

That said, we may see more 332 leasing deals if QF have more delays

I expect that Qantas may look at other options to retire at least some of its 767's (or give the British Airways ones back!). I would not be at all suprised to see some more airbuses coming the QF way (but availaibility may be an issue)

 

[simongr]

However, I can't wait to see the A380's in full QF colours! I have heard that they intend to have 4 delivered by 12/2008.

MSN014 	A380-841 *5 	F-WWSK 	VH-OQA 	Qantas 	        HX, OF, (PD - Aug 08)
MSN015 	A380-841 *5 	F-WWSL 	VH-OQB 	Qantas 		HX, B, (PD - Oct 08)
MSN022 	A380-841 *5 	F-WWSS 	VH-OQC 	 Qantas 		HX, CV 2007/5, B, (PD - Q2 2009)
MSN026 	A380-841 *6 	F-WWSW 	VH-OQD 	Qantas 		HX, B, (PD - Q2 2009)
MSN027 	A380-841 	F-WWSX 	VH-OQE 	Qantas 		HX, B, (PD Q3 2009)
MSN029 	A380-841 	F-WWSZ 	VH-OQF 	Qantas 		HX, CV 2008/1, B, (PD)

Ok - that is the production schedule for the A380 for QF. The key to the status shown is:

FT Flight Testing, TLS
OF Outfitting, XFW
B Built, not flying yet, TLS
DA Delivered - Active
U Unknown
NTU Not Taken Up
† Scrapped / Written off
RF Refitting, TLS
CV Convoy(Year / Nr)
HX ICAO 24-bit address (no idea what this means)
PD Planned Delivery - Not Known

So we have one aircraft that has flown and is being outfitted, 4 built but not flying and I has got himself a convoy.

Now you know as much as the rest of us

I am considering routing my next trip to teh US via MEL in Sep in case they have one flying MEL-LAX by then...

 

[maninblack]

So we have one aircraft that has flown and is being outfitted, 4 built but not flying and I has got himself a convoy.

Now you know as much as the rest of us :)

I am considering routing my next trip to teh US via MEL in Sep in case they have one flying MEL-LAX by then...[/quote]

What is a convoy:confused: Are they getting a Kenworth;)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XtXhHn6Yaqc

Anyway, how many aircraft are required to do the daily MEL-LAX-MEL QF93/94 service?

Here's betting that the inaugural A380 service will end up being SYD-LAX just to stick it to V Australia and because Sydney always gets the goods:evil: This is Qantas we are talking about.

 

[Flying Fox]

I expect that Qantas may look at other options to retire at least some of its 767's (or give the British Airways ones back!). I would not be at all suprised to see some more airbuses coming the QF way (but availaibility may be an issue)

I thought that QF bought the BA 767's after the initial A380 delay of 2yrs?

As for the first QF A380 service, even though they have always said MEL-LAX, I wouldn't be surprised if there was a special SYD-LAX service so that they can 'break the champagne over her nose'.

I also hope that they do something special like SQ and offer bids online with proceeds to a charity.

 

[serfty]

... HX ICAO 24-bit address (no idea what this mean

Transponder (aviation) - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

 

[simongr]

Here's betting that the inaugural A380 service will end up being SYD-LAX just to stick it to V Australia and because Sydney always gets the goods:evil: This is Qantas we are talking about.

Given SYD is the QF head office I think it is reasonable to expect that the first flight of the A380 with paying pax will be out of SYD. However the first scheduled service is planned to be MEL-LAX for operational reasons.

Now if QF are monitoring these boards then a lottery of QFFers with numbers of entries based on teh past 12 months SCs would be a great way to give away those seats

 

[oz_mark]

I thought that QF bought the BA 767's after the initial A380 delay of 2yrs?

I thought they extended the lease for a couple of years. Nevertheless, I suspect that QF would want to start retiring them sooner rather than later (straight after they have dealt with the 743's )

 

[oz_mark]

Jetstar now expects first 787 in November 2009-14/04/2008-Flightglobal.com

Qantas Airways’ low-cost subsidiary Jetstar anticipates it will now receive its first Boeing 787 in November 2009.

The first 787 will come in November 2009 and over a 12-month period the airline will receive a total of 15 of the type, a Jetstar spokesman said on the sidelines of an event in Ho Chi Minh City in Vietnam today.

[....]

The Jetstar spokesman ATI spoke to today says the carrier plans to start by operating the 787 domestically for a couple of months until the operation is bedded down.

 

[Flying Fox]

In addition to the other quotes -

Boeing facing payouts on delivery delays | The Australian

I was particularly impressed by this paragraph -

The manufacturer, which has orders for almost 900 of the new planes, was this week reluctant to discuss the cost of the delays but compensation to Qantas is expected to be more than the $202 million Airbus paid in fiscal 2006 and 2007 for delays to 12 A380s.

But I supposed it makes sense since Airbus paid $202M on a delay of 12 aircraft and Boeing are delaying on 65 aircraft (although less expensive and some won't be delayed). However, I'm still impressed.

 

[oz_mark]

Boeing suggests 767-300ERs to help solve the 787 capacity gap

Boeing suggests 767-300ERs to help solve the 787 capacity gap

Boeing has yet to tell 787 customers exactly how their delivery schedules will be impacted by the latest delay, but it has floated the idea of producing brand new 767-300ERs to help fill the capacity gap.

Dreamliner deliveries will not now begin until the third quarter of next year - at least six months later than planned - and production ramp-up will then be much slower than previously expected with output not due to reach 10 a month until 2012.

 

[Evan]

I guess boing is thinking if they really want a deal to build tankers for the USAF now maybe they do need that capacity to make up for 787 issues.

I don't feel sorry at all for Boeing, they were very critical of Airbus during there A380 delays and not its happened to them on the same scale, almost 2 years, so why was the media so hard on Airbis and yet if its Boeing its not so much of a big deal, or is that just my impressions living with different media in a different country now ?

200 million compensation is only a couple of plane out of 65 confirmed orders and even more options etc.

The next shock will be the aircraft will not perform as expected, ie too heavy and more fuel used than expected maybe....

E

 

[ANstar]

I don't feel sorry at all for Boeing, they were very critical of Airbus during there A380 delays and not its happened to them on the same scale, almost 2 years, so why was the media so hard on Airbis and yet if its Boeing its not so much of a big deal, or is that just my impressions living with different media in a different country now ?

E

At least Airbus had a plane flying once the dleays were announced.... Boeing cant even get the thing powered on yet. It will also be rushed into service so will no doubt have some service reliability issues - Airbus managed to sort most of that out whilst fixing the wiring crisis so the planes was mature on EIS

 

[simongr]

I don't feel sorry at all for Boeing, they were very critical of Airbus during there A380 delays and not its happened to them on the same scale, almost 2 years, so why was the media so hard on Airbis and yet if its Boeing its not so much of a big deal, or is that just my impressions living with different media in a different country now ?

E

Well the US media wouldn't want to criticise a US company

I also think that after the airbus issue there is an expectation that there will be delays. The other difference is that Joe Public probably are not as interested in the 787 as they were for the double decker bus. The 787 is to the naked eye "just another aeroplane" - the A380 was a visual dramatic change.

People are not generally interested in technology changes that they can't see...

 

[Evan]

At least Airbus had a plane flying once the dleays were announced.... Boeing cant even get the thing powered on yet. It will also be rushed into service so will no doubt have some service reliability issues - Airbus managed to sort most of that out whilst fixing the wiring crisis so the planes was mature on EIS

You make a very good point, the A380 was flying early, the issue was really wireing. I am sure many other small things but these they sorted out.

simongr, would explain a lot i think. Oh well i guess it will remain only interesting for us.

E

 

[maninblack]

Hard to imagine many airlines wanting 767's. Most airlines will be looking to phase them out completely asap when they get the 787, certainly this is the case for QF, NZ, AC and others who will be trying to clean up their fleets. They won't want themaintenance issue of a few odd new 767's hanging around.

The problem for Boeing will really hit if there is any further major delay, you could see wholesale defection to the A350, as airlines may lose faith in the 787, which afterall is still some way from being airborne. In the meanwhile an airline like QF/JQ could just pad out it's fleet with more A330's which Airbus would probably sell them for a handy price, and wait for the A350's. This is probably a big stretch but you never know.

 

[Flying Fox]

The problem for Boeing will really hit if there is any further major delay, you could see wholesale defection to the A350, as airlines may lose faith in the 787, which afterall is still some way from being airborne.

I'm not sure that new orders would 'lose faith' as such. I think its more of a case that the 787's 'First to Market' position relative to the A350 would be the issue (since that window is already narrowing).

 

[simongr]

Just a quick check the Boeing 787 is due into service in 2009 with orders as per this ink: List of Boeing 787 orders - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

The A350 has a 2013 entry into service with the following orders: List of Airbus A350 orders - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

 

[oz_mark]

Hard to imagine many airlines wanting 767's. Most airlines will be looking to phase them out completely asap when they get the 787, certainly this is the case for QF, NZ, AC and others who will be trying to clean up their fleets. They won't want themaintenance issue of a few odd new 767's hanging around.

If you already had 767's in your fleet, and Boeing were going to 'lend' them to you until the 787's came, maybe you would consider it. Then Boeing would just have to find something to do with the ones it takes back (e.g. freighters)

 

[dot]

Just a quick check the Boeing 787 is due into service in 2009 with orders as per this ink: List of Boeing 787 orders - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

The A350 has a 2013 entry into service with the following orders: List of Airbus A350 orders - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Looking at the Wikipedia links, it would appear that the first delivery slots for the 787 will be in 2019 (Iraqi Airlines looks to be the last delivery), but the first delivery slots for the A350 are in 2018(Dubai Aerospace Enterprise looks to be the last delivery). Assuming no more slippages on either program and the production timetables are full up to the last order, a new customer might look more favourably on the A350 given they could take delivery a year earlier (potentially).

If you already had 767's in your fleet, and Boeing were going to 'lend' them to you until the 787's came, maybe you would consider it. Then Boeing would just have to find something to do with the ones it takes back (e.g. freighters)

I agree, but I think they would be able to relocate relatively new 767s (at significant discounts I'm sure) to the airlines who have existing 767/757 fleets will be pretty easy for the Boeing sales force. (I am thinking of US Airline fleets given their reluctance to invest in the 787 or A350 for domestic use)