More 787 delays?

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dot said:
Looking at the Wikipedia links, it would appear that the first delivery slots for the 787 will be in 2019 (Iraqi Airlines looks to be the last delivery), but the first delivery slots for the A350 are in 2018(Dubai Aerospace Enterprise looks to be the last delivery). Assuming no more slippages on either program and the production timetables are full up to the last order, a new customer might look more favourably on the A350 given they could take delivery a year earlier (potentially).
I would not assume that just because an airline has a scheduled deliver for 2018 that there are no slots available prior to that date. Airlines often schedule their deliveries according to their business plan for capacity, retirement, and availability of finance. They don't necessarily want them delivered ASAP.
 
NM said:
I would not assume that just because an airline has a scheduled deliver for 2018 that there are no slots available prior to that date. Airlines often schedule their deliveries according to their business plan for capacity, retirement, and availability of finance. They don't necessarily want them delivered ASAP.
Yep - I did think about that after I hit the post button...:oops: Still, with many more orders on the books for the 787 than the A350, I would expect the lead to market that Boeing have will result in similar delivery times should a customer sign up today (for A350s or 787s) - thus reducing Boeing's first to market advantage.
 
dot said:
Yep - I did think about that after I hit the post button...:oops: Still, with many more orders on the books for the 787 than the A350, I would expect the lead to market that Boeing have will result in similar delivery times should a customer sign up today (for A350s or 787s) - thus reducing Boeing's first to market advantage.
And that of course is assuming the A350XWB does not experience its own 2-year delay :rolleyes: .
 
I am supposed to be at SFO on Tuesday next week (and yes booked on the inaugural A380 flight Mel - LAX) with both representatives of Boeing and Airbus, as well as FAA and Eurocontrol to discuss recategorisation of their existing aircraft (and implications for the new ones) in relation to terminal area spacing.

As you may have picked up from my first line, i am now - unless something changes between here and Sunday - desk bound sorting out some settlements arising from this present financial upheaval, and handing the tickets to my Chief Scientist - who is seriously looking forward to the A380.

If i garner some interesting feedback from the 'horses mouths' [obviously now second hand - and filtered by a character that thrives on facts and disdains the innuendo and nuances of responses] on delivery timetables, i will pass it on. There may be something useful as this will be one techie talking to another.

I can say there was no joy at Boeing when Airbus announced their last delays, as they were in the same boat.
 
Boeing delays first 787 Dreamliner flight

Boeing said today it will delay the first flight of its 787 Dreamliner because of problems with the installation of fasteners and a crippling machinists strike that ended last weekend.

The Dreamliner's "first flight is not going to be accomplished" in the fourth quarter as planned, Yvonne Leach, a Boeing spokeswoman for the Dreamliner program, said.

Boeing delays first 787 Dreamliner flight - News - Travel - theage.com.au
 
Crikey (yes, not the mpst reliable) seemed to imply that it is also now overweight and unable to fly Australia - USA non stop
 
Crikey seemed to imply that it is also now overweight and unable to fly Australia - USA non stop

Airbus had similar weight issue with the A380. Certified for 800+ passenger, was discounted to a 600 passenger (approx) aircraft, and now you are given 'more space' with 555 because the fuel / weight trade off means 600 could not be flown from Singapore to Europe non stop.

At least the machinists strike, while costing Boeing money, has given them some time to resolve the supply chain issues with the new aluminium rivets they need to secure the composite panels.
 
Airbus had similar weight issue with the A380. Certified for 800+ passenger, was discounted to a 600 passenger (approx) aircraft, and now you are given 'more space' with 555 because the fuel / weight trade off means 600 could not be flown from Singapore to Europe non stop.
.

I don't think anyone really planned to have 600 people in it flying from UK-Singapore.

Even 555 would mean a high economy load and small F/J section.
 
I don't think anyone really planned to have 600 people in it flying from UK-Singapore.

Even 555 would mean a high economy load and small F/J section.

If you look at the floor plan of the Qantas A380, there is a move for premium economy upstairs at the back.

The issue (and strategic intent of the aircraft) was to put more passengers on the ground in the same space [runway concrete occupancy time] more efficiently, and yes more luxuriously, than a 747 (including a 747-800).

Airbus went to great lengths to have the aircraft certified for 800+, even 'hiring' ex olympic athletes to be able to achieve the evacuation procedure standards of 90seconds from any seat.

The tightest constraint in aviation growth, particularly US and Europe, is runway availability! The A380 initially with a separation distance of 10NM [a 250% separation penalty] and now a 6NM [50% penalty] over the 747's 4NM spacing is a big issue. There are also major inflight separation spacing questions as well [horizontal and vertical].

With the model for airport slot pricing looking at changing away from one price fits all aircraft no matter the size [airports make money by passengers in the retail stores and carparks] then this is a major issue.

If the profitability of the flight for the airline is destroyed by the fact it takes up 2 slots [and pays twice as much, particularly in peak times], then 50 - 100 extra seats clearly makes the difference. On current measures, LHR is expected to see a -ve operational / throughput impact from the A380. Add extra taxi time / runway incursion issues- it becomes an interesting dynamic.

Customer market stratification / mix then receives a reduced priority.

This 'spacing' issue has a long way to run before being resolved. At the moment Airbus is still a long way from break even with the orders for the aircraft, and while there seem to be good fuel savings - potentially enhanced by the powerplant choice, whether you are able to economically land the aircraft (if at all) at the preferred destination is a real concern for any airline.

In the interim, it is up to the PR people to sell the benefits of more leg room / passenger mix, while the current economic climate does not help them attract full fare paying F/J passengers.
 
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ATW Daily News
The 5th delay should be confirmed next week, but looks like first flight is delayed now until Q2 next year with first delviries in April 2010 with JQ getting thiers in June 2010. (provided there are no mor edleays)
 
...meanwhile the 787-9 is ages away


Air New Zealand, which is launch customer for the Boeing 787-9, has revealed that first deliveries of the stretch variant have slipped by another 12 months to early 2013 - more than two years later than had been originally scheduled.

The Star Alliance carrier was the first to commit to the larger -9 variant of the 787 and has eight on firm order. It originally expected its first around the end of 2010, but the programme has seen several delays.

ANZ's first 787-9 delayed by 12 more months
 
Do I hear sniggering in the Airbus camp? Perhaps they are holding off in case the A350XWB program goes awry.
 
Do I hear sniggering in the Airbus camp? Perhaps they are holding off in case the A350XWB program goes awry.

And to busy churning out A330's as fast as they can, especially considering some versions on shorter routes could be even more efficient than the 787 !

E
 
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