NBN Discussion

Quite a few issues with your take up rate assumptions, one is the assumption its a growing market while in fact it's in decline and will continue to do so over the next ten years, the second one is that Telstra and Optus have the wired market to themselves, again that's not correct, look at Transact for example as well as the current wireless clients which are not an insignificant number.

The NBN is a white elephant that is built for the WWW1 generation, now that we are in a Web 2.0 world with mobile access taking precedence it will be handy for cell POPs, but endpoint take up will be around 10% of current DSL levels in 10 years time, I don't believe this has been factored into the business case. With plenty of dark fibre in private hands already I don't see the POP market providing much of the makeup revenue to meet the endpoint shortfall I am forecasting.
 
Re: Private Health loss of Rebate for some

Doctors and technologists are not necessarily separate people.One of the major systems used by doctors has been devised,developed,owned and distributed by a physician i know.He rarely though spends time now on physicianly pursuits.
The problem comes down to the bureaucracy.The federal Gopvernment provided financial assistance to GPs to take up computer technology.None for specialista.now that is fine for high earning proceedural specialists but for most general physicians,geriatricians,rehab specialists and many others often have incomes less than General Practitioners.This is also the group that will be more often writing to GPs and with usually more information.Most can not justify the extra expense to take up the new technology.
Similiarly in the public health system computer programs for generating discharge summaries,letters to GPs,discharge medications etc are available.The problem is that the RMOs whose task to do this is are just about the only ones not supplied with computers.There are hospitals that off their own initiative have supplied laptops/Ipads for the RMOs but it is certainly not universal.The one hospital i go to that has done so has a CEO that does have a medical degree.
Most bureaucrats have at least 1 and often several computers they can use.It is about time Health had Evidence Based Bureaucracy introduced.
 
Re: Private Health loss of Rebate for some

I personally believe that the country currently has much greater needs than this NBN but I could be persuaded with facts as distinct to rhetoric and emotion.


The great political need, of course, was to structurally separate Telstra. The NBN is a side effect of that. Whether it was the bst way of achieving that aim is questionable. Not sure, that if you want to break up a monoploy provider you go about it by creating your own monolopy is a great idea.
 
Re: Private Health loss of Rebate for some

From the perspective of where we live, what you have said is contradictory.

Only 210 km from Melbourne in a regional centre that, initially at least, falls within the 7% but that already has a good ADSL2+ service. The 12Mbps is not 'a vast improvement over current offerings.'

Does the Telstra/Optus deal work for us or not :?: :confused:

Are you sure you won't be getting fibre? Perhaps my statement was a bit too broad, but there aren't many cases where people who can currently get ADSL2+ (particularly ADSL2+ faster than 12Mbps) won't be getting fibre. Also, if this is the case are you sure you'll be losing your copper phone line / ADSL2+ service? The Telstra/Optus migration deal definitely covers anyone within the fibre footprint, but I'm not certain either way re people covered by wireless / satellite?

Anyway, yes of course if you can currently get 12Mbps+ ADSL2+ but won't be getting fibre then the NBN isn't such a good deal for you! You may think differently after another 5-10 years of wear-and-tear on your copper phone line that Telstra aren't maintaining properly though, I would add.

As I said above, personally I wish the NBN was pushing the fibre footprint out further than they are, which would likely solve your problem (and said problem for anyone else in your situation). This is unlikely to happen anytime soon though, given how feral the opposition (and compliant sections of the media - I'm looking at you Murdoch press) have become about feasibility studies / economic returns / etc though. When did everyone forget that the government is here to provide services, not run for-profit businesses? :-(

I'm not trying to be argumentative with this. Just trying to get the facts.

Sure, me too - I like facts :-)

I personally believe that the country currently has much greater needs than this NBN but I could be persuaded with facts as distinct to rhetoric and emotion.

What about the whole NBN-is-an-invesment argument though? i.e. it's not a matter of NBN or <Insert Government Service You Most Think Needs More Money Here>, but rather it's NBN and <Insert Government Service You Most Think Needs More Money Here> (partially funded by profits from the NBN no less!).

And re facts vs rhetoric / emotion, I honestly think I've stuck to facts during this debate? Some have been absolute facts (my rant about the technical benefits of fibre, Telstra / Optus migration deal and its impact, etc), some have been predictions but still based on known facts (NBN being an investment, it's business case, predictions about social/economic/whatever benefits of the NBN, etc) - I can't think of a single place where I've been relying on an emotive "argument"?
 
Re: Private Health loss of Rebate for some

Are you sure you won't be getting fibre? Perhaps my statement was a bit too broad, but there aren't many cases where people who can currently get ADSL2+ (particularly ADSL2+ faster than 12Mbps) won't be getting fibre. Also, if this is the case are you sure you'll be losing your copper phone line / ADSL2+ service? The Telstra/Optus migration deal definitely covers anyone within the fibre footprint, but I'm not certain either way re people covered by wireless / satellite?
No I'm not sure. This was originally stated but I have not followed up.


What about the whole NBN-is-an-invesment argument though? i.e. it's not a matter of NBN or <Insert Government Service You Most Think Needs More Money Here>, but rather it's NBN and <Insert Government Service You Most Think Needs More Money Here> (partially funded by profits from the NBN no less!).
I will watch with interest.

And re facts vs rhetoric / emotion, I honestly think I've stuck to facts during this debate? Some have been absolute facts (my rant about the technical benefits of fibre, Telstra / Optus migration deal and its impact, etc), some have been predictions but still based on known facts (NBN being an investment, it's business case, predictions about social/economic/whatever benefits of the NBN, etc) - I can't think of a single place where I've been relying on an emotive "argument"?
Your arguments have been good. Thankyou.

My comments were general and certainly not aimed at you.
 
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No I'm not sure. This was originally stated but I have not followed up.


I will watch with interest.

Your arguments have been good. Thankyou.

My comments were general and certainly not aimed at you.

Guys love this discussion, two people with different views talking and bringing in facts without knocking the other person. Wish this happened a lot more. I've enjoyed the back and forth.
 
Quite a few issues with your take up rate assumptions, one is the assumption its a growing market while in fact it's in decline and will continue to do so over the next ten years,

I'm sorry, that statment is just plain wrong. Australia's fixed line broadband market is still growing - DSL subscribers grew by 10% in 2010, and c.17% in 2011. The growth in this area is slowing, but that's because the market is starting to approach saturation. Not to mention that the size of the current market is more than enough to sustain the NBN, regardless of any future growth (or lack thereof).

Reference: Australia - Telecoms Industry - Statistics and Forecasts - BuddeComm - BuddeComm (plus lots of other sources - just Google it).

the second one is that Telstra and Optus have the wired market to themselves, again that's not correct, look at Transact for example...

I never said that Telstra and Optus had the market to themselves - they do have the vast majority of the market though. TransACT and some other niche providers do provide fixed-line broadband using their own infrastructure right now, but their market share is tiny. And I'd also add that these providers will be integrated into the NBN at some point, because most of them are already using fibre to provide their fixed-line broadband.

...as well as the current wireless clients which are not an insignificant number. The NBN is a white elephant that is built for the WWW1 generation, now that we are in a Web 2.0 world with mobile access taking precedence it will be handy for cell POPs, but endpoint take up will be around 10% of current DSL levels in 10 years time, I don't believe this has been factored into the business case.

I'm not sure on whose authority you speak for all internet users, but I can tell you the majority of people with expertise in the area disagree with you.

The NBN is the exact opposite of "WWW v1" - it's an essential part of "WWW v2". The "WWWv2" demands two things: mobility, and the ability to move far more data at a far faster rate than we currently can. The first one is covered by mobile broadband, which has had huge uptake and will continue to grow. The second is most definitely not covered by mobile broadband though - go back and read the long post I wrote earlier in this thread about the fibre being the correct choice for the NBN - or at least the parts about why wireless is not a feasible alternative.

The science bears this out (as per my post above), as does the real-world data: 90% of people with a mobile broadband connection also have another form of (fixed line) broadband (reference - same link I posted above). There's a reason for this - mobile broadband isn't a fibre replacement, it's a complentary technology for data-on-the-move.

With plenty of dark fibre in private hands already I don't see the POP market providing much of the makeup revenue to meet the endpoint shortfall I am forecasting.

Yeah, except for a reasonable number of metro exchanges that don't have competitve backhaul (dark fibre) right now, not to mention most of the rural / regional ones. This is a separate issues outside of the NBN though, and some work is being done to improve the situation via another government program.

Doctors and technologists are not necessarily separate people.One of the major systems used by doctors has been devised,developed,owned and distributed by a physician i know.He rarely though spends time now on physicianly pursuits.

No, not necessarily. But they often are - and you by your own admission are not a technologist. That's the only point I was trying to make :-)

The problem comes down to the bureaucracy.The federal Gopvernment provided financial assistance to GPs to take up computer technology.None for specialista.now that is fine for high earning proceedural specialists but for most general physicians,geriatricians,rehab specialists and many others often have incomes less than General Practitioners.This is also the group that will be more often writing to GPs and with usually more information.Most can not justify the extra expense to take up the new technology.
Similiarly in the public health system computer programs for generating discharge summaries,letters to GPs,discharge medications etc are available.The problem is that the RMOs whose task to do this is are just about the only ones not supplied with computers.There are hospitals that off their own initiative have supplied laptops/Ipads for the RMOs but it is certainly not universal.The one hospital i go to that has done so has a CEO that does have a medical degree.
Most bureaucrats have at least 1 and often several computers they can use.It is about time Health had Evidence Based Bureaucracy introduced.

I don't disagree with anything you just posted, but they're not issues related to the NBN - they're issues related to bureaucracy, poor allocation of funds, poor decision making, etc. They're real issues that need to be addressed... just not related to the NBN :-)

The great political need, of course, was to structurally separate Telstra. The NBN is a side effect of that.

This is at least partially true... I'm not sure the NBN was purely a side-effect (I don't think anyone can really know for sure), but Telstra did need to be structurally separated.

Whether it was the bst way of achieving that aim is questionable. Not sure, that if you want to break up a monoploy provider you go about it by creating your own monolopy is a great idea.

Even I, as a staunch supporter of the NBN, don't necessarily think creating a government monopoly is the best solution. Unfortunately it's the only real solution in a country such as Australia if you want to provide uniquitous fast broadband. Telecoms in all the but the densest (population-wise) locations tends to be a natural monopoly as the infrastructure cost is so high - you can have multiple privately-owned competitive fixed-line networks in central Tokyo (or even, say, CBD Melbourne), but you can't in the suburbs of Sydney, or in Ballarat, or in rural Australia. If you're going to end up with a monopoly either way, I'd much prefer a government one than a private one.
 
Re: Private Health loss of Rebate for some

No I'm not sure. This was originally stated but I have not followed up.

OK. If you find out the answer to either question (whether you are getting fibre or not, and if not, whether you will lose your copper phone line / ADSL2+) in the future could you please post it? I'm curious to know.

Also, FYI, AFAIK the general rule is that any regional town with > 1000 premises is getting fibre, anything smaller means wireless (and satellite for the truly remote). Not sure how they define the boundaries of a "town" though.

I will watch with interest.

As will I :-) As I've posted earlier I regard the NBN's forecasts / business plan to be pretty conservative, as do most with a level of expertise / knowledge of the area... but only time will tell for sure.

Your arguments have been good. Thankyou.

My comments were general and certainly not aimed at you.

Guys love this discussion, two people with different views talking and bringing in facts without knocking the other person. Wish this happened a lot more. I've enjoyed the back and forth.

My pleasure - thanks for clarifying. If you ever see me straying away from facts and into emotion, please do let me know ;)
 
Re: Private Health loss of Rebate for some

OK. If you find out the answer to either question (whether you are getting fibre or not, and if not, whether you will lose your copper phone line / ADSL2+) in the future could you please post it? I'm curious to know.

Also, FYI, AFAIK the general rule is that any regional town with > 1000 premises is getting fibre, anything smaller means wireless (and satellite for the truly remote). Not sure how they define the boundaries of a "town" though.
Where the heck would I find this information?
 
Also, FYI, AFAIK the general rule is that any regional town with > 1000 premises is getting fibre, anything smaller means wireless (and satellite for the truly remote). Not sure how they define the boundaries of a "town" though.

wafliron
For clarity, you should explain the difference between "fixed wireless" which is what you're referring to in small towns and mobile "wireless". My understanding is there's a huge performance difference between them, with fixed wireless being capable of much higher throughput.
 
Re: Private Health loss of Rebate for some

Where the heck would I find this information?

To be honest, I'm not sure - even if you can find more info, a definitive answer probably won't be available until the NBN reaches your area and they publish detailed info / rollout maps / etc. You could try trauling through the NBNCo website (they probably list their fibre vs wireless criteria somewhere) or even calling them. Or maybe try your local council, you probably won't get anywhere but some regional councils have been very proactive with regards to the NBN and if you're lucky your local council might be able to provide some info.

For clarity, you should explain the difference between "fixed wireless" which is what you're referring to in small towns and mobile "wireless". My understanding is there's a huge performance difference between them, with fixed wireless being capable of much higher throughput.

I'll do my best, but I must admit I'm not completely up to speed with the type of wireless technology (which is an important factor) that NBNCo are planning to use for their wireless coverage. IIRC initially they talking about WiMax, but recently I've also read references to LTE (Long Term Evolution - otherwise known as 4G - the next generation mobile network standard) being used.

Technology standard aside, yes, there is a huge difference between the performance of "fixed wireless" broadband and "mobile wireless" (via mobile phone networks) broadband. Even if the actual technology used turns out to be the same, fixed wireless gets around some of the problems with mobile wireless. For example:

1) Fixed wireless means you can use large antennas and you can place said antennas on the outside of buildings, which greatly increases signal strength and therefore coverage, speed, reliability, etc. Note that "large antennas" doesn't mean huge, unsightly antenna sticking up from the roof of every house - it just means larger than what you can cram into a mobile phone / mobile broadband stick :-)

2) Fixed wireless means once you install a receiver / antenna, you know it's not going to move. This means you can tweak / tune / locate the antenna for best possible reception, meaning that so as long as you get the initial setup correct you know it will provide consistently strong signal (and hence speed / reliability) for users in that house - you won't have issues with half your signal disappearing when you move from the lounge to the bedroom, like you can with mobile wireless.

3) With fixed wireless you know with reasonable certainty how much bandwidth you need to provide in your coverage area (in the NBN's case, number of households x 12Mbps = total bandwidth required). This means the network can be adequately provisioned to ensure users get a reliable 12Mbps even if everyone is using it at once - not 12Mbps if current usage / users in your area is low and 1Mbps if current usage / users in your area is high, which is one of the major problems with mobile wireless due to mobile carriers under-provisioning their networks to save money.

4) Another important factor is guaranteed coverage - if the NBN says your house will get the 12Mbps wirless service (based on rollout plans) then they will make sure this is what you get, even if it means additional engineering work. This differs greatly from our current mobile wireless, where if you are unfortunate enough to live in a little coverage blackspot it is your problem - the mobile telcos aren't going to fix it even if your neighbours get 100% coerage. Admittedly this is more to do with the NBN's business policies than specific benefits of fixed vs mobile wireless though.

There should be more bullet points in this list, but as I said I'm not 100% up-to-speed with this part of the NBN :-)
 
Should be interesting to see how things are in a few years when the rose colored glasses break and reality hits, as someone who has worked in the DSL market for ten years, as far as I am concerned the NBN is too little too late at way to much cost, Telstra is laughing all the way to the bank having sold their copper and introducing technology that will be more competitive than what the NBN can do!
 
Currently, in most small business, the first line coming in has power supplied to it via Telstra. Provided the business / householder has an older type phone that takes it power from the phone line, then a phone connection is always available. When teaching out western NSW, it was (and still is) quite common for the power to die for hours at a time. However, we all knew where the one and only operating phone was.

However, fairly sure I heard on ABC Radio a few weeks ago, that the NBN will link to a house via a box on the outside wall. This said box will have batteries to provide power. When the batteries run down (about a 2 hour life from what I heard), then the NBN phone connection fails.

Given that electricity outages of > 2 hours are fairly common, both in the city and bush, does this mean that the business / householder will have no phone access when the batteries fail?
 
Should be interesting to see how things are in a few years when the rose colored glasses break and reality hits, as someone who has worked in the DSL market for ten years, as far as I am concerned the NBN is too little too late at way to much cost, Telstra is laughing all the way to the bank having sold their copper and introducing technology that will be more competitive than what the NBN can do!

If you've worked in the DSL market for ten years and are against the NBN then I (and I'd imagine others) would love to hear why. As I've noted previously, people who oppose the NBN and have experience in the area are few and far between, so a contrasting opinion from someone who can speak with some authority would be very interesting to read.

However, if you're going to do this then you need to be able to provide some facts / reasoned arguments to support your contention the NBN is a waste of time / bad idea / white elephant / whatever. So far you've ignored every pro-NBN/pro-fibre argument I've put forward in favour of simply repeating that it's a bad idea - aka the "la la you're wrong I can't hear you" defence. If you want me (and I'd imagine at least some other readers) to take your opinion seriously then you need to back up your contentions with facts.

Currently, in most small business, the first line coming in has power supplied to it via Telstra. Provided the business / householder has an older type phone that takes it power from the phone line, then a phone connection is always available. When teaching out western NSW, it was (and still is) quite common for the power to die for hours at a time. However, we all knew where the one and only operating phone was.

However, fairly sure I heard on ABC Radio a few weeks ago, that the NBN will link to a house via a box on the outside wall. This said box will have batteries to provide power. When the batteries run down (about a 2 hour life from what I heard), then the NBN phone connection fails.

Given that electricity outages of > 2 hours are fairly common, both in the city and bush, does this mean that the business / householder will have no phone access when the batteries fail?

This is largely correct. With a plain copper phone line the electricity to run the basic phone service is supplied via the phone line itself, so if the power goes out at the connected premises the phone line will continue to work. With a fibre-delivered phone line (ala NBN) there is no electricity transmitted down the piece of fibre-optic cable, so in the event of a power outage at the connected premises the phone line will stop working unless there is some form of backup power supply (batteries).

It's worth noting a few points though:
- with copper phone lines the power supplied via the line is only enough to power a very basic, non-cordless phone, which are becoming increasingly uncommon. If you have a fancy corded phone (rare), a VoIP phone line (increasingly common), a cordless phone (most homes) or a PABX of any sort (most businesses, even small ones) then you're still out of luck if the power fails.
- don't forget that most people have a mobile (or at least access to one) as a backup "phone line".
- NBNCo is providing battery backup units, as you noted - but they last for something more like 5 hours, not 2.
- interestingly, the battery backup units are a common source of complaints from the initial batch of users connected to the NBN - most people don't want them, to the extent that NBNCo is considering making them optional.
- I believe NBNCo has more beefy battery backup units (which last much longer) available, which they install when the phone line is deemed "critical" - e.g. if someone in the house has a chronic life threatening medical condition, an "emergency button" for elderly people to push if they fall connected to the phone line/internet, etc. I'm not 100% on this though.

So yes, for the minority of users who use a basic non-cordless phone and don't have access to a mobile, a 4+ hour power failure can mean no working phone line in the NBN world. This is one area where fibre is inferior to copper phone lines, but it's a pretty minor one, and certainly nowhere near enough of a concern to scrap the entire idea...

Don't think I've seen this link posted yet: The great NBN fail &ndash; Blog &ndash; ABC Technology and Games (Australian Broadcasting Corporation).

Best article on NBN I've seen IMHO

That is a very good article - thanks for posting it. I'd note his initial contention is wrong though - the latest stats show the majority of Australians support the NBN despitethe cough job that has been done marketing (which is really saying something!) :-)

I'd strongly encourage anyone interested in this topic to set aside 15 minutes to read it, regardless of which side of the debate you are on.

The article is quite long, not necessarily perfect, and perhaps a bit strong on rhetoric at times (especially towards the start), but what it does provide is:

1) a great explanation of and commentary around the terrible marketing job the Labour government / NBNCo are doing in relation to the NBN,

2) an interesting and well-explained set of secondary benefits the NBN will provide in the areas of health, education and the wider economy - and bear in mind this is just another set of ideas a tech journalist has come up with / read about, and therefore far from comprehensive, and,

3) some insightful commentary around why focussing on the NBN purely as a way to deliver fast internet is short-sighted.

Even if you're against the NBN and the linked article doesn't change your opinion, by reading it you will at least be a lot better informed about the project and perhaps better understand why many people are such staunch supporters it.

PS: if you're someone who is still thinking the NBN is a waste because wireless will make it redundant, I'd also encourage you to read the two articles linked to in the above article: Telstra's 4G wireless cannot replace the NBN &ndash; Blog &ndash; ABC Technology and Games (Australian Broadcasting Corporation) and Broadband Cringe and Envy: wireless vs. wired &ndash; Opinion &ndash; ABC Technology and Games (Australian Broadcasting Corporation). Neither article provides much in the way of hard science (but the info is out there if you want to read it - just Google it, or take a squizz at what I posted a few pages back for the science-lite version), but the author does explain the issues with capacity / upgradability / reliability / etc of wireless quite eloquently and in plain English.
 
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Note the batteries in the power backup units are expected to last up to three years (shelf life) - after which they would be replaced at the subscribers expense.
 
PS: if you're someone who is still thinking the NBN is a waste because wireless will make it redundant, I'd also encourage you to read the two articles linked to in the above article: Telstra's 4G wireless cannot replace the NBN &ndash; Blog &ndash; ABC Technology and Games (Australian Broadcasting Corporation) and Broadband Cringe and Envy: wireless vs. wired &ndash; Opinion &ndash; ABC Technology and Games (Australian Broadcasting Corporation). Neither article provides much in the way of hard science (but the info is out there if you want to read it - just Google it, or take a squizz at what I posted a few pages back for the science-lite version), but the author does explain the issues with capacity / upgradability / reliability / etc of wireless quite eloquently and in plain English.


Your right, they are just opinion pieces, the fact is the science has got to the point that wireless has no issues beating the speed on offer by the hard wired NBN, without the infrastructure cost, the issue has been spectrum availability for the telcos to make it happen, and that has just changed with it now being freed up, or just purchased in the case of Optus, who just spent $230 M on a very nice chunk that used to belong to Austar etc. Point to multi point gigabit wireless is two years away, we have had point to point for some time already, and with wireless, it cannot be attacked with a backhoe, whilst its already providing 99.9999 SLAs.
 
The claims made for the savings in medicine are presuming medical science stays as is.There are likely to be major changes in the practice of medicine.certainly I will become redundant.However whether the changes mean we will need the NBN must be speculation.Genomics,stem cells,molecular medicine all have the potential to change medicine dramatically.
The real problem i see is that by having all your specialist services done over the NBN means that what little medical experience we have in remote areas will be even less as practice there will be uneconomical.So what happens then with severe trauma.Cant be helped by teleconferencing,no medical expertise left in the area=disaster.
 

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