Oz Federal Election 2013 - Discussion and Comments

[quokka77]

Morgan's poll has a consistent ALP bias (not sure why, something to do with face-to-face collection I think). It's a known issue. I would think the trye figure is likely to be lower (ie somewhere between 50:50 2pp and the most recent Newspoll which has the Coalition up).

 

[Pukka]

Morgan's poll has a consistent ALP bias (not sure why, something to do with face-to-face collection I think). It's a known issue. I would think the trye figure is likely to be lower (ie somewhere between 50:50 2pp and the most recent Newspoll which has the Coalition up).

Well my favorite poll is Centrebet and they have the coalition at $1.28 which is shortening

 

[medhead]

Well, I can't read medheads axes as they are all blurred so I can't see scale or whether they are adjusted for inflation so the jury on hard data is certainly out. As for your examples, they do not reflect any trend in the broader market. If they occurred in Perth for instance they are meaningless. There have been more examples of a stagnant market than one of any strength. In fact seven years ago we sold a block of land that had appreciated over 50% in three years. Six months later its value had fallen to just over what we paid for it. But that too doesn't mean a fig.

It's an index Y-axis 0 to 180 in 20 steps. X running from May 2002 to Sept 2012. Data is here 6416.0 - House Price Indexes: Eight Capital Cities, Mar 2013 I'm sure the ABS explain their methodology.

Take a look at the top end market of Noosa & the Gold Coast........some places in regional OZ that are situated near mining operations have returned very well.

200% increase on a very low base doesn't quite mean the same as the poor sucker that took a 50% haircut on something that was worth many millions

Again with selective, limited examples of markets that are not representative of the country. meh!

 

[drron]

The bubble is nationwide. There's nowhere that real estate is cheap in the context of its location. Sure, that average $300k house and land package in the middle of nowhere might look cheap to someone selling a townhouse in inner-city Sydney, but when the median wage in the area is only $50k, it's probably twice as much as it should be.

Many places in QLD have had the bubble reasonably deflated.Prices are down for higher end Gold Coast properties by 40-50%.Hervey Bay where I go frequently has cheap housing and land selling reasonably but for the last 2-3 years houses over $400000 have basically not sold.Apartments if you want to sell you have to discount 50-70% from the prices at the top of the market-a bit like the USA really.

 

[Skyring]

This is the site I trust most:
Antony Green's Election Calculator - Australia Votes | Federal Election 2013 (Australian Broadcasting Corporation)

Antony Green knows his stuff.
Interesting that only one recent poll is giving the election to the ALP. Newspoll is showing Labor declining after the honeymoon and I expect that to be the peak in support.

The similarities to 2010 are uncanny, with a last-minute leadership swap, a few hasty policy announcements and scrutiny showing up the raw spots.

 

[drron]

This is the article I promised to put the link to yesterday.Last night the internet was very patchy where I have my computer though.Although 90% of boat people have refugee status granted there is certainly some evidence that all is not as it seems-

AUSTRALIA'S refugee determination process has broken down completely, admitting large numbers of people whose claims to refugee status are fraudulent.
The claims come from a former senior Immigration Department official who says the system favours those who tell lies over those who tell the truth, is easily scammed and has become utterly dysfunctional.
"Having considerable experience interviewing and assessing boat arrival claims, I can confidently say ... that we are approving large numbers of people who are fabricating claims," he wrote in an unpublished account of the process, obtained by The Weekend Australian.

Cookies must be enabled. | The Australian

 

[amaroo]

Again with selective, limited examples of markets that are not representative of the country. meh!

Nothing selective at all.......do some research.

 

[drsmithy]

This is the article I promised to put the link to yesterday.Last night the internet was very patchy where I have my computer though.Although 90% of boat people have refugee status granted there is certainly some evidence that all is not as it seems-

Cookies must be enabled. | The Australian

Sounds like someone must have evidence of significant fraud in a politically sensitive area that would be of great interest to at least one of our political parties.

I look forward to it being presented. Given both major parties are always on the lookout for reason to demonise refugees, and have been since at least the mid-2000s, they certainly don't have any reason not to come forward.

 

[medhead]

Nothing selective at all.......do some research.

Nooss and Gold Coast is just 2 markets out of like a thousand. That's called selective.

 

[amaroo]

Nooss and Gold Coast is just 2 markets out of like a thousand. That's called selective.

Most of QLD property is depressed........anything around mines has done ok however, with job losses starting to exculate its only a matter of time before they drop like a sinker.

 

[Skyring]

Given both major parties are always on the lookout for reason to demonise refugees, and have been since at least the mid-2000s, they certainly don't have any reason not to come forward.

I haven't seen anyone trying to demonise refugees. Far from it. Both parties have lifted quotas, bent over backwards to accommodate them and made positive statements.

The negatives are reserved for those who pretend to be refugees in order to migrate here.

Equating illegal immigrants with refugees is a big swallow, though of course there are those who are waxing fat on the process.

 

[drsmithy]

I haven't seen anyone trying to demonise refugees. Far from it. Both parties have lifted quotas, bent over backwards to accommodate them and made positive statements.

Successive Governments have expended huge resources demonising refugees arriving by boat. I'm reasonably sure it was Howard who started with the absurd "border protection" rhetoric (what, are they rolling up in amphibious landing craft dressed in camos and carrying guns ?).

The negatives are reserved for those who pretend to be refugees in order to migrate here.

Some 90%+ of "boat people" have consistently been found to be genuine refugees, yet despite that the Government, Opposition and most media continue to (incorrectly) label anyone arriving by boat as "illegal" (yet are strangely silent on entries arriving by plane, which are far more likely to have no genuine claim). Not only are they making an assertion that statistics show to likely be wrong, but they're doing it before any truth has actually been determined.

 

[drron]

Under UN convention of Transnational Migration there is also an obligation to follow the rules of the country you are entering.Not to have ID papers is therefore illegal.

 

[drsmithy]

Under UN convention of Transnational Migration there is also an obligation to follow the rules of the country you are entering.Not to have ID papers is therefore illegal.

This is false.

 

[medhead]

Most of QLD property is depressed........anything around mines has done ok however, with job losses starting to exculate its only a matter of time before they drop like a sinker.

I've provided the link to the data. Some places might be down. But the overall trend is upwards. The Brisbane index has increased from ~61 in 2002 to ~145 in march 2013. The index should remain about the same or decrease if there is widespread depression. The numbers just don't support your position.

 

[Skyring]

Under UN convention of Transnational Migration there is also an obligation to follow the rules of the country you are entering.Not to have ID papers is therefore illegal.

Yup. Arrive at SYD with no ID and you get sent back. Clear breach of the Immigration Act.

 

[Hvr]

Yup. Arrive at SYD with no ID and you get sent back. Clear breach of the Immigration Act.

Not necessarily, you can claim refugee status at the airport and people have been known to destroy their papers once on board the plane.

 

[amaroo]

I've provided the link to the data. Some places might be down. But the overall trend is upwards. The Brisbane index has increased from ~61 in 2002 to ~145 in march 2013. The index should remain about the same or decrease if there is widespread depression. The numbers just don't support your position.

Heard that line about statistics?

 

[Skyring]

Not necessarily, you can claim refugee status at the airport and people have been known to destroy their papers once on board the plane.

Of course. Nevertheless, illegal. Claiming asylum per se isn't illegal, but that status does not extend a charmed status of exemption from the law to asylum-seekers, specifically any acts of transit through or arrival in Australian territory.

There seems to be a certain flexibility of mind involved in the use of that word for some people. These folk will tell you that the Iraq War was illegal. With a straight face.

 

[drsmithy]

Yup. Arrive at SYD with no ID and you get sent back. Clear breach of the Immigration Act.

This is also false.