If that's true, then I should buy more lotto tickets. I track my upgrades in a spreadsheet, the method is pretty simple. If I intend to upgrade a flight, I search the class that I am booking in at first (eg. Y) and then the class I want/can upgrade to, and take the ticket with the closest booking class/restrictions. Usually you can get a one for one (ie saver for both) but sometimes there are sale tickets in one class or another.
If there's negligible difference in the ticket prices I just book the next class up, so it first serves as a confirmation that the retail gap between the tickets is great enough that I'll need to upgrade with points, and that is most of the time, but sometimes (such as a recent NZ J sale fare booking) it is a no brainer.
Then, I put in my upgrade request and I track if I got it or not. I only just started doing this recently, I'm not really this structured generally but I was intrigued to see whether I was getting value for my points.
Out of my last (and only) tracked upgrade requests, for domestic I have hit 5/9 upgrade requests for an average of 55% and 2/4 intl for an average of 50%. So, I get upgraded about half of the time. This fits with my historical hit rate.
Owing to having a 15 month old, my wings have been clipped. I was SG last year and am about to requal again. I don't think it requires any miracles, personally