Project Sunrise - what is it going to mean for non-Sunrisers?

[dajop]

so you must live in a bubble like in public service or work for a bank. There are going to be many more flights cut due to Corona/economy. Only question is how deep & how many Qantas staff get told to go on holiday for months. Aren't some staff casual or on contracts that might not be renewed ?

There's a lot of water under the bridge for the economy between now and the launch of sunrise. Have you a crystal ball as to the demand between Sydney and London in 2022 or 2023?

There is definitely a possibility that due to economic circumstances or economics of the flight itself, or both, that the project won't go ahead. But if they do launch it will be full scale ahead, daily (or close to) , not just 2 days a week (other than perhaps during an interim period whilst they wait for aircraft deliveries).

 

[ozfflyer]

There's a lot of water under the bridge for the economy between now and the launch of sunrise. Have you a crystal ball as to the demand between Sydney and London in 2022 or 2023?

There is definitely a possibility that due to economic circumstances or economics of the flight itself, or both, that the project won't go ahead. But if they do launch it will be full scale ahead, daily (or close to) , not just 2 days a week (other than perhaps during an interim period whilst they wait for aircraft deliveries).

you think the economy is going to turn in under 2 years ? Wouldn't bet the house on it, especially if you live in way overpriced SYD or MEL.

QF has a BIG problem. They have very high costs & heavily unionised. They need to cut international services services very deep now. Last thing QF wants is a race to the bottom, but how else are they going to get leisure travellers to fly ? Give them triple ff pts ? Triple status credits ? Cheaper upgrades ? (for dollars not ff points)

They can't keep subsidising Int with dom.

 

[Lynda2475]

I would expect QF will keep PER-LHR, SYD-SIN-LHR and add SYD-LHR, but the flagship QF1/2 labelling will probably go to the direct flight. Assume that QF11/12 would become only a direct service, as the 5th Freedom LAX-JFK leg is only allowed because cant currently fly direct, and assume add another SYD-LAX flight (which is only seasonal atm).

 

[drron]

Probably lots of ways on OW but I'm tipping that they are pretty poor Qantas SC and FF points earners

There are some of us who don't care about QFF SCs already.Possibly a few more might see the light.

 

[jase05]

There are some of us who don't care about QFF SCs already.Possibly a few more might see the light.

Agreed, I’m happy to forego QFF SC‘s for a better service at a better price

 

[MEL_Traveller]

They need to cut international services services very deep now.

I'd argue they already have... replacing 747s with 787s is a massive cut in capacity. And the 787s are premium heavy

 

[serfty]

so you must live in a bubble like in public service or work for a bank. There are going to be many more flights cut due to Corona/economy. Only question is how deep & how many Qantas staff get told to go on holiday for months. Aren't some staff casual or on contracts that might not be renewed ?

Why post in the short term?

'Sunrise' is a long term thing and corona will go away with the development of a vaccine and the economy will "recover" (not that it is bad anyway).

 

[opusman]

Maybe I've missed something but haven't they already said SYD-SIN-LHR will continue?

 

[jb747]

If Sunrise actually works (as it’s based on people who are prepared to pay a substantial premium), then it has the effect of diluting other flights to the point of non viability. So, I would see QF abandoning them altogether. There is no reason to chase the lower end of the market.

I can see a fairly major airline capacity reduction coming out of the virus, with severe reduction in the availability of lower end fares. It’s really the same discussion we were having about fuel a few years ago. Longer term (which might be sooner than you think) cheap air travel will disappear, and it will go back to what it was pre 747 days.

 

[levelnine]

If Sunrise actually works (as it’s based on people who are prepared to pay a substantial premium), then it has the effect of diluting other flights to the point of non viability. So, I would see QF abandoning them altogether. There is no reason to chase the lower end of the market.

This is my take as well. Qantas will never be able to profitably compete with the many Middle Eastern/Asian carriers flying one stop to LHR/NYC given their lower cost bases.

Internationally, Qantas will gradually re-orient itself as a high-cost carrier with one-stop flights to LHR/NYC/JNB/SCL/LAX/SFO/ORD/etc and major Asian ports with a combination of low density, premium heavy A350s, 787s and A330s. It has already started in that direction with the 787 replacements of the 747s.

Expect to see Qantas prices rise even further above the competition and, consequently, status chasing on Qantas become even more of a mug's game (unless, of course, work is paying for all your flights).

 

[eastwest101]

If Sunrise actually works (as it’s based on people who are prepared to pay a substantial premium), then it has the effect of diluting other flights to the point of non viability. So, I would see QF abandoning them altogether. There is no reason to chase the lower end of the market.

I can see a fairly major airline capacity reduction coming out of the virus, with severe reduction in the availability of lower end fares. It’s really the same discussion we were having about fuel a few years ago. Longer term (which might be sooner than you think) cheap air travel will disappear, and it will go back to what it was pre 747 days.

Interesting comments, just to ask, are you predicting that cheap international/long haul air travel will decrease, or do you think this will also be the case also with short haul domestic? And do you think this is an Australian specific thing or a worldwide trend?

 

[opusman]

If Sunrise actually works (as it’s based on people who are prepared to pay a substantial premium), then it has the effect of diluting other flights to the point of non viability. So, I would see QF abandoning them altogether. There is no reason to chase the lower end of the market.

I can see that being the case for business class (and maybe PE) travellers, but economy? Would there really be that many economy class pax who’ll pay a 30% premium to save a few hours? The leg stretch in Singapore is the best part of the flight!

 

[levelnine]

I can see that being the case for business class (and maybe PE) travellers, but economy? Would there really be that many economy class pax who’ll pay a 30% premium to save a few hours? The leg stretch in Singapore is the best part of the flight!

The whole point of Qantas' strategy is to have premium-heavy aircraft with few economy seats so they don't need to worry about finding too many suckers to pay a 30% premium.

And there will always be some suckers who will pay a 30% premium. Examples include:
1. Rusted-on Qantas followers who will never fly anyone else for some reason (eg safety, loyalty, etc)
2. People who accumulate Qantas points who are hoping to be able to upgrade to business class (can't do that on other airlines).
3. People who are on the cusp of attaining/retaining Gold/Platinum who will pay the premium to get the bonus status credits (compared to flying with another oneworld airline).

 

[stm1sydney]

IF Project Sunrise goes ahead as planned what is it going to mean for those of us that don't want to get to London or NYC on massively long non-stop flights?

It will be a great opportunity for rusted-on QF pax to savour the joys of airlines with actual service standards, excellent hard products, and friendly non-ancient cabin crew, and without the arrogant and entitlement of QF.

 

[moa999]

Sunrise will be daily flights. Can't charge a premium for Business travellers without it

And while QF does have a high cost base, so do the US and UK airlines who would be the only possible competition direct.

Competing into Asia is far more difficult for QF.

LHR I see as 4 daily flights
787 from PER, probably not MEL-PER
35J from SYD and MEL
380 from SYD-SIN
To help fill premium on the A380 could also see 321XLRs being used for ADL-SIN and possibly CBR-SIN.

 

[levelnine]

LHR I see as 4 daily flights
787 from PER, probably not MEL-PER
35J from SYD and MEL
380 from SYD-SIN
To help fill premium on the A380 could also see 321XLRs being used for ADL-SIN and possibly CBR-SIN.

That will likely not be the case. Way too much capacity. Qantas has been moving in the direction of cutting capacity, not increasing it. You cannot drive up fares by flooding the market with capacity.

Much more likely that it will be confined to SYD-LHR & MEL-LHR with the A350 and, perhaps, PER-LHR with the 787 with feeder traffic from BNE, ADL, CBR, DRW, etc.

That gives Qantas three unique routes to differentiate themselves from the Middle Eastern/Asian carriers and therefore attempt to justify the 30% premium.

 

[moa999]

PER-LHR with the 787 with feeder traffic from BNE, ADL, CBR, DRW, etc.

BNE-PER-LHR will add 2hrs to a journey versus alternatives. Same with DRW

QF also needs somewhere to send the A380s that it owns outright

 

[Bundy Bear]

If Sunrise actually works (as it’s based on people who are prepared to pay a substantial premium), then it has the effect of diluting other flights to the point of non viability. So, I would see QF abandoning them altogether. There is no reason to chase the lower end of the market.

I can see a fairly major airline capacity reduction coming out of the virus, with severe reduction in the availability of lower end fares. It’s really the same discussion we were having about fuel a few years ago. Longer term (which might be sooner than you think) cheap air travel will disappear, and it will go back to what it was pre 747 days.

Long haul cheap airfares might disappear but I think domestically cheap airfares will stay.

Also airlines and their owners want growth so new markets will keep coming up, and this current corona might hurt an airline like Jetstar more than Qantas, but then domestically Jetstar might be ok.

 

[levelnine]

BNE-PER-LHR will add 2hrs to a journey versus alternatives. Same with DRW

QF also needs somewhere to send the A380s that it owns outright

It wouldn't be the first time Qantas has taken a decision to the disadvantage of non-SYD customers.

And Qantas will use them on routes where they aren't undercutting themselves (ie SYD-SIN-LHR undercuts SYD-LHR). For example, to SIN (but not LHR), HKG, JNB, SCL, Japan (if that becomes possible by 2023).

 

[dajop]

or do you think this will also be the case also with short haul domestic?

Haven't cheap short haul domestic fares long since disappeared?