Qantas adds Brisbane-Manila but suspends Sydney-Shanghai flights

[jase05]

But the expected announcement from China is targeting Australians visiting China, not the other way around. Visa-free travel to China would almost certainly trigger a surge in demand for China, from the Australian side, and I think that would be to Qantas' benefit.

Chinese Airlines regularly have return fares from under $2500 return in J and under $600 in Y.
I’m not sure QF can compete with that and a couple of the Chinese carriers offer a product of equal or better standard

 

[dajop]

I think it’s always important to remember that Qantas has limited capital, and has a responsibility to deploy that capital to maximise shareholder returns.

Just because they could fill a plane (which evidently they are not even doing that) and even make a profit from the route - does not mean that the route is viable. It needs to make more profit than if the deployed that capital elsewhere.

 

[HS-TQE]

China in its current environment would largely be considered 'low yielding' (due to heavy competition from the mainland Chinese carriers) irrespective of what happens between Australia and China in the short term future.

The aircraft in the QF fleet may be better used elsewhere where they can generate greater yield/returns. MNL may had squeezed out mainland China from any QF internal research on yields.

 

[elanshin]

China will always be a massive market and I fully expect QF to try again in the future, but right now they need to go back to the drawing board about their China strategy as well as their bigger picture strategy.

We also hardly see any tourism promotion for any parts of China despite there being a lot of things to do. Business demand has also fallen off a cliff as companies recalibrate post covid and online meetings dominate.
Meanwhile Japan has been heavily marketed and you see that with QF sending 4 daily flights, and effectively 3-4 daily JQ flights.

 

[RSVKanga]

Well there we have it. China has now decided to completely scrap visa requirements for Australians visiting for less than 15 days, and it’ll be interesting to see Qantas’ response after an inevitable surge in demand from Australians (who are more likely to fly Qantas than Chinese carriers) as this new announcement will likely change the current composition of the Australia-China travel market. As mentioned before, searches for China-related travel surged by almost 70% in New Zealand after China gave NZ citizens the same visa-free arrangements a few days ago. I think we can expect the same or more to happen in Australia.

Keep in mind that the Chinese Government only permits one mainland carrier on each route between Australia and China, so in a way Chinese carriers are restricted on how they can respond to the anticipated surge in demand. Qantas isn’t restricted at all. Australia has an open skies agreement with China.

I think once China’s Government announces the starting date for the visa-free travel for Australia, Qantas should make a decision on potentially reversing the axe on PVG. I don’t think a resurgent Australia-China corridor is something QF would consider worth missing out on.

 

[jase05]

demand from Australians (who are more likely to fly Qantas than Chinese carriers).

You keep saying this but I’m yet to see any evidence that’s it the truth.
Many Australians choose the airline that is priced the best especially if travelling as a family.
In the past QF prices have been very uncompetitive so they need to be careful with what they charge.
Some of the Chinese carriers offer a very good product and you even have Cathay which has a product better than QF in probably every way and is offering flights to China return in J for just over $3k

 

[tomlee1986]

I like your optimism in the chinese market but I share a totally different view to yours. For a start the Australian anti china sentiment is extremely high! This is a very recent research on Australian perception of China by UTS Sydney:

• Mistrust of the Chinese government: A majority of Australians (71 percent) expressed mistrust of the Chinese government. This sentiment has remained high over four years – consistently at 70 percent or over – although this year’s sentiment is still slightly down from a high of 76 percent in 2021.
• The Australian government’s management of China relations: Australians’ perceptions of the Australian government’s performance with respect to China relations remain more or less unchanged from last year. Four in 10 Australians (40 percent) expressed satisfaction with the Albanese government’s management of China relations, a continuation of sentiment from 2023 (39 percent). This represents a slight uptick from views regarding the Morrison government’s performance with respect to China relations, with 34 percent having expressed satisfaction in 2022 and 32 percent in 2021.
• A harder Australian government line on China: Nearly six in 10 Australians expressed support for the Australian government adopting a harder line in its dealings with China. This sentiment is creeping up again after incrementally but steadily decreasing after a four-year high in 2021 (63 percent) to a low in 2023 (55 percent).
• Responsibility for improving the Australia–China relationship: A clear majority of Australians (79 percent) agreed that ‘The responsibility for improving the relationship between Australia and China lies with both countries’, a continuation of views expressed in 2023 (78 percent), 2022 (78 percent) and 2021 (80 percent).
  However, more Australians believe that the responsibility lies with China (48 percent) rather than Australia (31 percent).
• Future outlook: While Australians’ views about the short-to medium-term prospects for improvement in relations between Australia and China remain pessimistic overall, there has been an incremental increase in optimism regarding improvement over the last four years. This year, one-third of Australians (33 percent) said that they believe bilateral relations ‘will improve in the next three years’, a six-point increase from a low of 27 percent in 2021.

UTS:ACRI/BIDA Poll 2024

Introduction and executive summary Full report

www.uts.edu.au

Well there we have it. China has now decided to completely scrap visa requirements for Australians visiting for less than 15 days, and it’ll be interesting to see Qantas’ response after an inevitable surge in demand from Australians (who are more likely to fly Qantas than Chinese carriers). As mentioned before, searches for China-related travel surged by almost 70% in New Zealand after China gave NZ citizens the same visa-free arrangements a few days ago. I think we can expect the same or more to happen in Australia.

Keep in mind that the Chinese Government only permits one mainland carrier on each route between Australia and China, so in a way Chinese carriers are restricted on how they can respond to the anticipated surge in demand. Qantas isn’t restricted at all. Australia has an open skies agreement with China.

I think once China’s Government provides a starting date for the visa-free travel for Australia, Qantas should make a decision on potentially reversing the axe on PVG. I don’t think a resurgent Australia-China corridor is something QF would consider worth missing out on.

You keep saying this but I’m yet to see any evidence that’s it the truth.
Many Australians choose the airline that is priced the best especially if travelling as a family.
In the past QF prices have been very uncompetitive so they need to be careful with what they charge.
Some of the Chinese carriers offer a very good product and you even have Cathay which has a product better than QF in probably every way and is offering flights to China return in J for just over $3k

As to your comment on CX product is better - I question their safety MORE than EVER! This story from South China Morning Post from HK AND confirmed by CX themselves, I would NOT fly with them unless I MUST! Tbh it is NOT about $$ but human LIVES! And FYI this is news THIS PAST WEEK! This is their pilots in training - who are they hiring to fly these planes? from mainland China?!

"Cathay Pacific’s Tim Burns says trust in US-based AeroGuard Flight Training Centre remains, despite solo flight ban for city trainees after string of mistakes"

Hong Kong’s Cathay Pacific cadet pilots to continue to train at US flight school

Cathay Pacific’s Tim Burns says airline’s trust in Arizona-based AeroGuard Flight Training Centre unchanged, despite solo flight ban after string of trainee pilot errors.

www.scmp.com

 

[elanshin]

Ill just say this. China is not ready for mass foreigners touring the country without tour guide groups. They may be way more advanced with many systems, but none of them are designed with foreign tourists in mind only as an afterthought.

We're probably still a few years away from this being seemless. Right now unless you have someone that knows what they're doing as well as have language capabilities, some hurdles are really annoying to get over.

Also there is a lack of general tourist resources available online especially with the huge expat exodus during covid and many of the systems changed during covid. Right now i can quite easily say, its not easy to be a first timer in mainland China without a lot of handholding by someone that knows what to do.

Nothing is necessarily hard, but China also doesn't go out of its way to explain any of it to foreigners. Like my HSR ticket. Nowhere does it say to try and get there at least 1-1.5hr ahead of time to figure out how the giant train terminal works. Or where to go.

Whilst the new visa change is one that will save me a few hundred dollars (maybe thousands over the years) and I would happily get more QF status, I also think Qantas needs to reevaluate their China strategy.

Plus you forget that if people really want QF, they can still buy a QF codeshare on MU. Granted it's not the same thing, but many people won't realise that ...

 

[jase05]

I like your optimism in the chinese market but I share a totally different view to yours. For a start the Australian anti china sentiment is extremely high! This is a very recent research on Australian perception of China by UTS Sydney:

• Mistrust of the Chinese government: A majority of Australians (71 percent) expressed mistrust of the Chinese government. This sentiment has remained high over four years – consistently at 70 percent or over – although this year’s sentiment is still slightly down from a high of 76 percent in 2021.
• The Australian government’s management of China relations: Australians’ perceptions of the Australian government’s performance with respect to China relations remain more or less unchanged from last year. Four in 10 Australians (40 percent) expressed satisfaction with the Albanese government’s management of China relations, a continuation of sentiment from 2023 (39 percent). This represents a slight uptick from views regarding the Morrison government’s performance with respect to China relations, with 34 percent having expressed satisfaction in 2022 and 32 percent in 2021.
• A harder Australian government line on China: Nearly six in 10 Australians expressed support for the Australian government adopting a harder line in its dealings with China. This sentiment is creeping up again after incrementally but steadily decreasing after a four-year high in 2021 (63 percent) to a low in 2023 (55 percent).
• Responsibility for improving the Australia–China relationship: A clear majority of Australians (79 percent) agreed that ‘The responsibility for improving the relationship between Australia and China lies with both countries’, a continuation of views expressed in 2023 (78 percent), 2022 (78 percent) and 2021 (80 percent).
  However, more Australians believe that the responsibility lies with China (48 percent) rather than Australia (31 percent).
• Future outlook: While Australians’ views about the short-to medium-term prospects for improvement in relations between Australia and China remain pessimistic overall, there has been an incremental increase in optimism regarding improvement over the last four years. This year, one-third of Australians (33 percent) said that they believe bilateral relations ‘will improve in the next three years’, a six-point increase from a low of 27 percent in 2021.

UTS:ACRI/BIDA Poll 2024

Introduction and executive summary Full report

www.uts.edu.au

As to your comment on CX product is better - I question their safety MORE than EVER! This story from South China Morning Post from HK AND confirmed by CX themselves, I would NOT fly with them unless I MUST! Tbh it is NOT about $$ but human LIVES! And FYI this is news THIS PAST WEEK! This is their pilots in training - who are they hiring to fly these planes? from mainland China?!

"Cathay Pacific’s Tim Burns says trust in US-based AeroGuard Flight Training Centre remains, despite solo flight ban for city trainees after string of mistakes"

Hong Kong’s Cathay Pacific cadet pilots to continue to train at US flight school

Cathay Pacific’s Tim Burns says airline’s trust in Arizona-based AeroGuard Flight Training Centre unchanged, despite solo flight ban after string of trainee pilot errors.

www.scmp.com

Yes, I read those articles and I’d still fly with them. I have a QF award booking in J to HKG in September and I’ll still most likely end up canceling and get a revenue fare on Cathay or with one of the Chinese carriers. I’ve had great flights with Xiamen and Hainan and both have pretty decent prices and often as low as $1200 one way in J. Both China Eastern and China Southern have fares for around $2700 return but I’m less fond of those

 

[RSVKanga]

• Mistrust of the Chinese government: A majority of Australians (71 percent) expressed mistrust of the Chinese government. This sentiment has remained high over four years – consistently at 70 percent or over – although this year’s sentiment is still slightly down from a high of 76 percent in 2021.
• The Australian government’s management of China relations: Australians’ perceptions of the Australian government’s performance with respect to China relations remain more or less unchanged from last year. Four in 10 Australians (40 percent) expressed satisfaction with the Albanese government’s management of China relations, a continuation of sentiment from 2023 (39 percent). This represents a slight uptick from views regarding the Morrison government’s performance with respect to China relations, with 34 percent having expressed satisfaction in 2022 and 32 percent in 2021.
• A harder Australian government line on China: Nearly six in 10 Australians expressed support for the Australian government adopting a harder line in its dealings with China. This sentiment is creeping up again after incrementally but steadily decreasing after a four-year high in 2021 (63 percent) to a low in 2023 (55 percent).
• Responsibility for improving the Australia–China relationship: A clear majority of Australians (79 percent) agreed that ‘The responsibility for improving the relationship between Australia and China lies with both countries’, a continuation of views expressed in 2023 (78 percent), 2022 (78 percent) and 2021 (80 percent).
  However, more Australians believe that the responsibility lies with China (48 percent) rather than Australia (31 percent).
• Future outlook: While Australians’ views about the short-to medium-term prospects for improvement in relations between Australia and China remain pessimistic overall, there has been an incremental increase in optimism regarding improvement over the last four years. This year, one-third of Australians (33 percent) said that they believe bilateral relations ‘will improve in the next three years’, a six-point increase from a low of 27 percent in 2021.

Weren’t you the same member who made a ridiculous unsubstantiated claim that the Sydney to Shanghai route was a national security risk earlier in this thread? Do you think all Australians only travel to the US, UK, EU, Canada, Japan and New Zealand and nowhere else?

Moral-based factors like what you have listed above have not much to do with decisions made by Australians in regards to travel. The countries where the ME3 are based are known for their horrible treatment of specific groups based on religion, sexuality, ethnicity and employment factors (and I think most travelling Australians are aware of that) - yet that doesn’t deter Australians from flying on their state owned airlines and visiting those countries. And it shouldn’t be a deterring factor. I think the same would apply to China (although China is much more of a destination than transit - although same idea applies). If there’s no visa requirement and prices are competitive, then there’ll almost certainly be a surge in leisure, family and business demand between Australia and China, from the Australian side.

 

[elanshin]

As to your comment on CX product is better - I question their safety MORE than EVER! This story from South China Morning Post from HK AND confirmed by CX themselves, I would NOT fly with them unless I MUST! Tbh it is NOT about $$ but human LIVES! And FYI this is news THIS PAST WEEK! This is their pilots in training - who are they hiring to fly these planes? from mainland China?!

"Cathay Pacific’s Tim Burns says trust in US-based AeroGuard Flight Training Centre remains, despite solo flight ban for city trainees after string of mistakes"

Hong Kong’s Cathay Pacific cadet pilots to continue to train at US flight school

Cathay Pacific’s Tim Burns says airline’s trust in Arizona-based AeroGuard Flight Training Centre unchanged, despite solo flight ban after string of trainee pilot errors.

www.scmp.com

You are aware that CX (or any major top tier airline) doesn't just randomly put students and cadets into their coughpits right? If anything, they'd be pushed to HK Express first when they graduate if they're desperate and want to speed up their new pilots.

Also I'm sure you can ask any pilot about their student times and most will have said they've done a dumb thing or two... Or more.

 

[elanshin]

Weren’t you the same member who made a ridiculous unsubstantiated claim that the Sydney to Shanghai route was a national security risk earlier in this thread? Do you think all Australians only travel to the US, UK, EU, Canada, Japan and New Zealand and nowhere else?

Moral-based factors like what you have listed above have not much to do with decisions made by Australians in regards to travel. The countries where the ME3 are based are known for their horrible treatment of specific groups based on religion, sexuality, ethnicity and employment factors - yet that doesn’t deter Australians from flying on their state owned airlines and visiting those countries. And it shouldn’t be a deterring factor. I think the same would apply to China (although China is much more of a destination than transit - although same idea applies). If there’s no visa requirement and prices are competitive, then there’ll almost certainly be a surge in leisure, family and business demand (which is already happening) between Australia and China.

Yes i agree, but the surge right now is the Chinese diaspora (many of whom are on Australian passports). Some like myself would be ok to fly QF, others see QF's product as meh.

Actual non Chinese Aussie tourism to China will take a long concerted effort before they really get going. And if it does start doing well, you can bet QF would put JQ on the routes as well for leisure travel to compete.

QF competes ideally for corporate and slightly more premium travel of which there just isn't that much demand to China right now.

 

[RooFlyer]

I think once China’s Government announces the starting date for the visa-free travel for Australia, Qantas should make a decision on potentially reversing the axe on PVG. I

And which other service will they axe to do this? You know they don't have enough aircraft.

And if they do manage to cut the legs of another route, there is still the thing that punters will want to pay their high prices, to get the poor service that's been described above. Chinese airlines will always beat them on price, and if you are a family of tourists, you are likely going to want to save a few thousand and go a Chinese carrier, aren't you?

The theme of your airline's failings haven't changed - high prices, poor service.

 

[tomlee1986]

Weren’t you the same member who made a ridiculous unsubstantiated claim that the Sydney to Shanghai route was a national security risk earlier in this thread? Do you think all Australians only travel to the US, UK, EU, Canada, Japan and New Zealand and nowhere else?

Moral-based factors like what you have listed above have not much to do with decisions made by Australians in regards to travel. The countries where the ME3 are based are known for their horrible treatment of specific groups based on religion, sexuality, ethnicity and employment factors (and I think most travelling Australians are aware of that) - yet that doesn’t deter Australians from flying on their state owned airlines and visiting those countries. And it shouldn’t be a deterring factor. I think the same would apply to China (although China is much more of a destination than transit - although same idea applies). If there’s no visa requirement and prices are competitive, then there’ll almost certainly be a surge in leisure, family and business demand between Australia and China, from the Australian side.

I sure did and I prefer it is shut permanently!!!

 

[MooTime]

To continue this OT convo.

Had 4 family members just last week return from a 10day organised tour of mainland China. Cost was just $1500 for 2 adults, all accom, breky and flights all covered. Was $999 without options and now selling for $888. Was 4 tour buses per day.
So obviously gov subsidised, but Chinese gov doing something to get tourists over there. They had great time as knew very little about China previously. Well organised.

 

[tomlee1986]

To continue this OT convo.

Had 4 family members just last week return from a 10day organised tour of mainland China. Cost was just $1500 for 2 adults, all accom, breky and flights all covered. Was $999 without options and now selling for $888. Was 4 tour buses per day.
So obviously gov subsidised, but Chinese gov doing something to get tourists over there. They had great time as knew very little about China previously. Well organised.

before the random stabbing of Americans - tourists may still want to go but i doubt that event will help tourists impressions now... as to Qantas, I am NOT surprised if it has some Australian Foreign Affairs Department involvement in shutting it down - possibly even Defence department as I still believe it is a NATIONAL SECURITY matter!

https://www.pm.gov.au/media/statement-joint-outcomes-australia-china-annual-leaders-meeting - Statement of joint outcomes from PM office... after reading it - I see NO chance of easing tensions! This statement is as short as it gets! Couple of hours meeting only got this?! not good

 

[RooFlyer]

And the behaviour of Chinese reps amongst the journalists in today’s event at Parliament house won’t endear the Australian viewing public to the Chinese either.

Take away the students and Chinese diaspora who will routinely travel on Chinese airlines and I believe the volume is pretty marginal, as Qantas found when it was flying to Shanghai only recently. And that’s even with the massive attraction of its frequent flyer program and all the rusted on Qantas flyers.

 

[RSVKanga]

And the behaviour of Chinese reps amongst the journalists in today’s event at Parliament house won’t endear the Australian viewing public to the Chinese either.

At the end of the day, nobody really cares about petty moral events when it comes to travel.

<redacted>

 

[tomlee1986]

At the end of the day, nobody really cares about petty moral events when it comes to travel.

<redacted>

in the past maybe you are correct - how about this story - non political but it wont help tourists intentions now where 4 College instructors were randomly stabbed in China last week - one of them is actually a brother of a state senator of USA! How would tourists feel going to china now?

4 U.S. college instructors injured in stabbing attack in China

The four instructors from Cornell College, a private liberal arts college in Iowa, were visiting a public park in the northeastern Chinese city of Jilin while on an exchange program.

www.nbcnews.com

 

[dajop]

The other thing, if for a moment you assume that their will be an uptick in tourism originating in Australia (from those who aren’t Chinese diaspora), not sure that SYD-PVG is necessarily a great option. It’s more of a business route (which why QF was there in the first place).

Almost certainly tourists are going to visit other parts of China as well as (or even instead of) Shanghai, so carriers who offer seamless open jaws ((such as from Beijing), like CX, SQ etc probably have an advantage. And SYD-PVG doesn’t have that much appeal to the other 5m city in Australia either. To travel MEL-SYD-PVG-PEK is not really that appealing via a single transit of HKG or SIN.