QANTAS being taken over by Macquarie Bank..

[Takeshi]

But with 28% acceptance already and 40% of Hedge funds that will sell for sure .
To get 70% looks a done deal.

Costello should have stopped this takeover dead in its tracks.
Its sadly too late now we will lose our beloved Icon.

QANTAS R.I.P 1921 - 2007

 

[Ric]

Lindsay,
Thank you for the inspiration!! I will be also holding onto my shares too, albeit, insignificant amount.
Ric

 

[QF WP]

Inspiration... now that's a new one for a Moderator to get

I had the pleasure of reading the Qantas Part B Statement, almost cover to cover. I want to make informed decisions - but of course, there was a lot of information not contained that instead came out in the press.

Now call me loyal (well, have been in QFF program since 1987 and was married to as well as dated QF staff), but I'd rather get some of the future profits than APA. The way it appears they were going to treat QF is morally reprehensible IMHO, although YMMV.

Everybody needs to make their own decisions based on their personal circumstances (can you tell I'm a finanncial planner, there's my disclaimer). My wife put her acceptance form into APA, because she wants the money. Her decision, based on her own reasoning.

 

[codash1099]

Presuming that the takeover does not go ahead, it will be interesting to see the attitude (and perhaps fate) of those members of the Board and senior management who have backed it so wholeheartedly and had so much to gain financially.

Will they go or will they stay? If the former, will they be pushed or will they jump?

 

[QF WP]

Agree, it may make their position untenable...but they'll be looking for any lifeline to continue...

 

[ric_melb]

Andrew Sisson, from Balanced Equity, is interviewed on ABC Inside Business today. You can see the interview online.
His views are that the offer is underpriced, probably by a dollar or so, and that his company have no present intention to accept the offer.
He is happy to remain with Qantas, if APA withdraw the offer, or if they go ahead, and perhaps achieve ownership of 50 -70% of the shares.

Guess I will follow his lead with my own shares.

 

[PaulZ]

The Acceptances for the Offer continue to DROP!!!

APA announced its Substantial Holder Notification today...

It has a Relevant Interest of 12.57% (Up from 12.46%)...

However, the Institutions continue to Withdraw their stock from the Institutional Acceptance Facility ... Now only 12.94% (Down from 15.34%)


TOTAL INTEREST of 25.51%...

I dont think this takeover is going to get up by Friday...

(and I am glad to have sold at $5.38)

 

[d15.in.oz]

Agree, it may make their position untenable...but they'll be looking for any lifeline to continue...

I reckon!

If it doesn’t go ahead, QAN will need to prove to investors that they can make just as much profit, if not more than APA, from the company.

Much as I may get flamed for my thoughts, I think up until now the QAN head honchos have had a broad Australian conscience. I believe that as Aussies, many of them are truly interested in seeing jobs stay in Australia, and focussing on a long term, viable future for QAN and a broad ranging Australian aviation industry.

Either way; this sweet parochial attitude was set to disappear, the moment APA put its bid on the table.

 

[macca172]

I would say that Jackson and Dixon are currently packing their draws up!

 

[Takeshi]

I would think Dixon would know what APA had planned and he might just do the same if this bid fails.

Or was it confidential information ???
Anyway I still would wait a few more days when Hedge Funds start cashing in then acceptances will go up over the magic 50% mark which will then make us wait a further 2 weeks to see the outcome.

Then APA will talk to banks and lower the limit to say 60% as they are really desperate to get Qantas.

Or they might slip a few hundred million to UBS and BE to accept on the side who knows in this game no one is honest.

I am sick of getting letters in my mail ACCEPT NOW and my wheelie bin is overflowing.

 

[simongr]

I would think Dixon would know what APA had planned and he might just do the same if this bid fails..

Dont you think he always planned to sell off assets/non-core business and do bunch of massivivee outsourcing?

The QF you see in 12 months time will be little different to what APA planned to do - - just without the debt but focussed on short term rather than long term goals

 

[Takeshi]

Dixon has wanted to sell his Catering Division for the last 10 years going by a relative of mine who works at Sydney QFCL.

They have had no luck in selling Catering only last year they tried again and had a few offers of around the 400 million mark I think.
But Qantas decided to keep Catering and grow it as it had more value to grow it than sell it.

Also just recently with this APA thing it was stated that Qantas had to keep Catering in Australia as part of the Qantas Sales Act.

So can he get aroud this ???
Maybe it will be easier to sell-off Terminals- and Freight and Holidays like stated as likely sell-offs and unfortunately our FF program.

Who knows what will happen what Qantas has is a strong unionised workforce so Dixon is constantly fighting with them.

Who knows only time will tell.

 

[simongr]

Maybe it will be easier to sell-off Terminals- and Freight and Holidays like stated as likely sell-offs and unfortunately our FF program.

Have you read the posts here commenting that some people have opined that the sell off of the Air Canada FF program was actually beneficial for the FFers...

 

[JohnK]

The Acceptances for the Offer continue to DROP!!!

APA announced its Substantial Holder Notification today...

It has a Relevant Interest of 12.57% (Up from 12.46%)...

However, the Institutions continue to Withdraw their stock from the Institutional Acceptance Facility ... Now only 12.94% (Down from 15.34%)


TOTAL INTEREST of 25.51%...

I dont think this takeover is going to get up by Friday...

The news just keeps getting better.

Now where is that snag....

 

[PaulZ]

Anyway I still would wait a few more days when Hedge Funds start cashing in then acceptances will go up over the magic 50% mark which will then make us wait a further 2 weeks to see the outcome.

Then APA will talk to banks and lower the limit to say 60% as they are really desperate to get Qantas.

Takeshi - Why would the hedge funds wait to accept?? If they were always going to accept, why wouldn't they have taken advantage of the Institutional Acceptance Facility?? They still retained their flexibility by accepting early. It doesn't make sense to hold off accepting in my opinion.

I wouldn't be so sure of APA getting 50% by Friday.

If this were to occur, no doubt there would be some short term pain for the hedge funds and other institutions that are holding out... ... However they have all done their sums and realise that the offer is too low... The hedge funds will make a loss in the short term, but move into the black before long.

I think APA's FATAL MISTAKE was declaring their bid price final. Had they not done that they would have surely increased the offer to something like $6 to guarantee success instead of having to try and get it through with decreasing the required acceptance to 70% which has substantially affected their maths on this deal.

For the record, I was a shareholder (sold at $5.38 last week). I don't want the APA bid to suceed. I loved owning a very small slice of Qantas, and I hope to buy it back next week for alot cheaper than I sold.

 

[serfty]

The was a bit in todays papers that is sort of interesting:

...It is obviously critical for APA to get to 50 per cent by Friday. If it doesn't the offer fails and all shares have to be returned.

I'll predict that if the offer finishes between 50 and 70 per cent APA will renegotiate finance to keep the shares.

Even if the Qantas board doesn't, the APA team know that at $5.45 Qantas is a bargain. They'll keep as many as they can.

(My Highlighting)

 

[QF WP]

Takeshi, I agree with PaulZ, the hedge funds came into the stock because of the apparent mis-pricing of the offer and the opportunity to squeeze additional more margin from APA. If this ceases to be apparent and the price drops, to protect their position they will be shorting the stock to protect their downside risk (if the shares fall below what they paid them) - essentially insuring their position.

I've heard that APA have been getting a lot of empty reply paid envelopes in the mail, which must have been very frustrating for them :shock: ...

d15.in.oz, I happen to agree with your throughts - time to put on our flame proof suits.

 

[QF WP]

Have just received an fax from Mallesons Stephen Jacques (lawyers to APA) updating their position as at close of business on 2 May - see attachment.

Interesting that the IAF number of shares is decreasing, yet the relevant interest ones climbed dramatically. Still, I don't think enough to worry - 50% is looking like a distant hope by COB May 4 (which would extend the offer period by a further 14 days).

If they fall at the first hurdle, then all bets are off.

 

[Takeshi]

Now up to 33%, so I am sure Hedge funds will come up with 17% by COB tommorrow to keep this bid alive.

Looks like a done deal to me ( unfortunateley )

 

[Kendall Roy]

Sad news.

Personally, it makes me sick how they can get away with changing the rules as they go. (Not to mention the bribe to the existing Board who have only acted in their own interests).

But that's life!

Farewell QF