QANTAS being taken over by Macquarie Bank..

[PaulZ]

Credit Suisse have bought another 2%, bringing their stake to 10.56% . Might not sound like much, but its an extra $210 MILLION dollars.

(Since 29 March, Credit Suisse have gone from 7.20% to 10.56%, thats $355 Million dollars)

What are they doing??

 

[PaulZ]

UBS owns 11.40% (+/- 1%) as at 16 April 2007.

UBS & Credit Suisse own almost 22% of the stock... They have publicly stated they won't accept this undervalued offer...

There are also sure to be personal investors, super funds who are not going to accept...

I just don't see how they will get over 70%... even if they do get to 50% by Friday 7pm.

I don't think it is a done deal!

 

[Kendall Roy]

UBS owns 11.40% (+/- 1%) as at 16 April 2007.

UBS & Credit Suisse own almost 22% of the stock... They have publicly stated they won't accept this undervalued offer...

There are also sure to be personal investors, super funds who are not going to accept...

I just don't see how they will get over 70%... even if they do get to 50% by Friday 7pm.

I don't think it is a done deal!

Some very cool numbers there!

So what happens assuming they reach 50% but however fall short of the 70%. Do they still acquire shares?

Cheers
"Stockmarket Rookie"

 

[Takeshi]

I have never read that UBS has oficially said they will not accept, just rumoured right ?

I didn't know that Credit Suiss also will not accept.
So with Balance equity at 4% this is going to be a photo finish.
But if they don't get 70% they will just change the rules again.
They really want Qantas bad, and have invested tons of cash to get it.
They are not going to give up.

 

[PaulZ]

Some very cool numbers there!

So what happens assuming they reach 50% but however fall short of the 70%. Do they still acquire shares?

Cheers
"Stockmarket Rookie"

The offer closes Friday 7pm. It cannot be extended by APA.

However, if APA reaches 50% by Friday 7pm, the offer is Automatically Extended for a Two Week Period.

PZ

 

[PaulZ]

I have never read that UBS has oficially said they will not accept, just rumoured right ?

I didn't know that Credit Suiss also will not accept.
So with Balance equity at 4% this is going to be a photo finish.
But if they don't get 70% they will just change the rules again.
They really want Qantas bad, and have invested tons of cash to get it.
They are not going to give up.

According to the AFR: "Balanced Equity Management and UBS Global Asset Management ... have repeatedly rejected the offer." (Monday 1 May 2007 - Nervous wait for Qantas suitors.

If APA got 90%... 100% with compulsory acquisition... $5.60/$5.45 was a STEAL (they should go to jail! )...

Then they changed to 70% requirement, allowing minority shareholders to stay on the register... It has COMPLETELY changed all the numbers of the deal. I don't think APA can make the deal add up will less than 70%...

Anyways... time will tell. We won't know until Monday or Tuesday probably.

I personally don't want to see Qantas sold... I am unhappy I sold my shares... but it was the best financial decision, I think, for my circumstances. I hope it fails and i can but them back on the cheap... because i think the market has finally recognised Qantas' real value and after the short term shock, will trade much higher than the old trading band of $2.80 - $4.00.

 

[Kendall Roy]

Gee I wish a bookmaker would offer odds on this.

Would make a good punt.

 

[QF WP]

PaulZ, it depends on who you sold your shares to (not that you'll ever know) - however, perhaps it was one of these large institutions who together have a blocking stake.

Personally (well my Family Trust), haven't given it's shares to APA or sold on market. I firmly believe that QF would extract the value from the shares over the next few years and I want to continue to be a part of the growth prospects. I am a net holder of good, long term shares (spoken like a good financial planner and aggressive risk profile investor).

Whilst my wife "sold out" :shock: , she had totally different (good) reasons for exiting - she though that getting $2 profit per share was good and she has the funds earmarked for reducing our minimal personal debt position.

I heard this morning that APA released the similar statement to the market as I posted here yesterday, advising they now control 38% as at COB Thursday. Now to achieve 12% of the stock in one day would mean (IMHOI) a monumental shift in thinking from the corporates and hedge funds. Still, we'll see the results after COB today.

May the best team win

 

[turtlemichael]

I heard this morning that APA released the similar statement to the market as I posted here yesterday, advising they now control 38% as at COB Thursday. Now to achieve 12% of the stock in one day would mean (IMHOI) a monumental shift in thinking from the corporates and hedge funds. Still, we'll see the results after COB today.

May the best team win

You can see these announcements pretty much as soon as released on the asx site. Equity Prices Results

Unless I am misreading it, which I'm sure someone will point out , looks like APA controlling 36% as of last night.

 

[PaulZ]

Credit Suisse Buys More Shares...Another $120,000,000.00 brings their Interest in Qantas Up to 11.73% (From 10.56% only one day ago).

Looks like Credit Suisse are buying all the stock available on the market.

APA has declared their interest as at COB 3/5/07 as 36.03%. Still a long way from 50%!

All should be known by the weekend i would have thought.

 

[Altair]

I would be curious on how much foreign ownership of QAN there currently is. Without APA, which will not take effect until they get 70%, all the hedge fund buying and now Credit Suisse, it surely must be over the 49%.
I now have doubts whether it will get over 70%. 50% probably but not 70%.
Interesting times ahead.
I hope it does not go ahead as a listed QAN will still allow people to directly invest in this company, earning rewards and risks that it entails.

 

[serfty]

I would be curious on how much foreign ownership of QAN there currently is. Without APA, which will not take effect until they get 70%, all the hedge fund buying and now Credit Suisse, it surely must be over the 49%. ...

The APA bid was structured so that the 'foriegn' partners would have a reduced voting interest in proportion to their ownership to keep apparent 'foriegn' 'control' below the thresholds.

 

[Altair]

The APA bid was structured so that the 'foriegn' partners would have a reduced voting interest in proportion to their ownership to keep apparent 'foriegn' 'control' below the thresholds.

Yes I know that, I do not know if the Qantas Sales Act specified control or ownership.
What I am talking about is with the buying by the hedge funds, Credit Suisse etc, not APA, has the foreign ownership provision of 49% been breached? APA structure does not come into place until they have been successful in their bid eg. 70%+ acceptance. Anything before that is still subject to the Qantas Sales Act limitations of 49%.

 

[d15.in.oz]

What I am talking about is with the buying by the hedge funds, Credit Suisse etc, not APA, has the foreign ownership provision of 49% been breached?

Yes, probably. Thankfully for compliance simplicity, QAN doesn't have to report daily on who its owners are! And by the time it comes to report again, i would imagine things may be below the limit.

 

[QF WP]

At open of market this morning, the official announcement from APA was 34.59% (am on the phone to my broker now).

Found out my brother's Family TRust also retained their QAN shares - every one helps keep QAN in our hands

 

[oz_mark]

I guess if it is really close, we won't know the answer till Monday.

 

[simongr]

Umm - not sure about monday even. if APA get less than 50% acceptances the deal is off - not sure exactly how much APA owns at this point (rather than just having acceptances) but just because acceptances are over 50% doesnt 50% is owned by APA.

 

[serfty]

APA released a "Change in substantial holding" this morning.

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20070504/pdf/31299f14pk2kkr.pdf

IAFs were down to 1.44%, "Relevant Interests" were up to 34.59%.

Interestingly, APA had been adding the IAF's and the "Relevant Interests"'s to give a total. They did not do this today.

 

[QF WP]

I would plump that APA (Mallesons) will issue the statement late tonight, after the 7pm deadline has passed and they have tallied up acceptances. That may be quite late into the night - but not sure when ASX will get it loaded into their system and onto the QAN page.

Mallesons will be getting all the fees out of APA that they can. They are very tight when it comes to drafting agreements and sometimes they can be commercially unrealistic (as I found out today when down with my Solicitor going through a voluminous agreement they drafted for a supplier of services to us).

Hmmm, looking at the ASX now shows 9,676,018 QAN shares traded up to 30 minutes ago - I wonder which large institutions have been net buyers today. Credit Suisse advised a Substantial Shareholder Notice today, indicating that they owned (or beneficially held) 232,721,247 shares (or 11.73%) at COB 3 May; up from 209,511,835 (10.56%) at COB 2 May.

 

[novacatz]

so - well... what is the verdict?

Personally, I dont really care too much -- I dno't have exposure to QAN right now -- but I want to buy in and having this whole buyout thing hanging around just adds too much uncertainty for me...