Qantas cancelling flights

[avante]

Is there a general rule of thumb in terms of avoiding flights that are likely to be cancelled SYD-MEL? And is seat availability 24 hours’ prior a good indicator of the flight being earmarked for cancellation, especially flights departing on the quarter hour?

 

[docjames]

It would seem the quarter hours flights and then half hour flights are more likely than the on-hour flights to be cancelled. Other predictors may include day of the week (predicted demand). I’m not sure you can tell outside 24hrs how likely a flight is to get dropped - seat selection tools or availability tools don’t brilliantly predict load ((selection may reflect “who’s chosen yet” and availability is a max of 9/7 per travel class - although a wide open all fare bucket flight may be in danger but it’s not a certainty as you don’t know the loading in the other direction / next flight of the day).

Beyond the quarter hour flights, I think it’s too dynamic to predict with any reliability.

 

[avante]

It would seem the quarter hours flights and then half hour flights are more likely than the on-hour flights to be cancelled. Other predictors may include day of the week (predicted demand). I’m not sure you can tell outside 24hrs how likely a flight is to get dropped - seat selection tools or availability tools don’t brilliantly predict load ((selection may reflect “who’s chosen yet” and availability is a max of 9/7 per travel class - although a wide open all fare bucket flight may be in danger but it’s not a certainty as you don’t know the loading in the other direction / next flight of the day).

Beyond the quarter hour flights, I think it’s too dynamic to predict with any reliability.

Thanks. Hmm now I am starting to question my 17:45 tomorrow. Although, being a short week, I’m hoping it’ll be fine! I’d hate to be moved from my 4A to a 30B on a 6pm!

 

[moa999]

And weather.
If it's forecast to be windy, lightning at SYD or MEL expect greater proactive cancellation

 

[docjames]

Thanks. Hmm now I am starting to question my 17:45 tomorrow. Although, being a short week, I’m hoping it’ll be fine! I’d hate to be moved from my 4A to a 30B on a 6pm!

With the public holiday today I think it’s less likely to get cancelled. (Opinion not fact!). Let us know how you go.

If you have status they do try and find decent seats (although 30B is always a risk!).

 

[wannabeinvestmentbanker]

The :15 and :45 have actually been relatively safe recently from what Ive seen. The 6 and 8pmers have been regularly canned. Absent weather disruptions, its pot luck.

 

[vandy]

Things must have changed. Those quarter hour ones used to be more lightly loaded for some reason, and prime for cancellation / consolidation.

 

[avante]

Averaging all the responses here, it looks like any flight is just as likely to be cancelled (apart from weather factors of course)!

 

[ozfflyer]

slightly off topic, but just noticed that Qantas codeshare flights with Fiji Airways to NAN cut dramatically from 1Feb.

BNE/NAN goes from daily 737 to 5/week.

SYD/NAN goes from daily A330+A359 to daily 737 + A359

Of course school holidays have ended, but bigger cutbacks than I remember in previous years.

Might have something to do with the $777 return fares for Feb available right now from BNE, SYD, MEL to LAX or SFO, that keep being extended

 

[Saab34]

I note they normally finalizes golden triangle cancellations by the evening before.

The last 10pm flights back I use regularly and have had some average experiences across all carriers and the best flight I use now that is always empty and early is JQ611 SYD-AVV. Has a 1hour turnaround before returning back.

 

[Melburnian1]

I note they normally finalizes golden triangle cancellations by the evening before...

I don't believe that's true when there's unpredictable fog or lighning.

For instance recently jb747 kindly informed us that fog was forecast the next morning for BNE, CBR and SYD (airports not just the metropolises)> He would have looked at the aviation weather forecasts, yet next morning, only CBR was affected. (Naturally other ports suffered late arrivals/departures from/to CBR.)

 

[juddles]

Just thinking aloud (or sharing without real reason), I do admire the bald-faced attitude of Jetstar. Recently my daughter was due to fly MCY (Maroochydore) to Sydney. An afternoon flight. She was advised the day before that the flight was cancelled due to "weather". Strange since the earlier and later flights were not affected by the crystal weather ball....

 

[Jaded_Elf]

I note they normally finalizes golden triangle cancellations by the evening before.

The last 10pm flights back I use regularly and have had some average experiences across all carriers and the best flight I use now that is always empty and early is JQ611 SYD-AVV. Has a 1hour turnaround before returning back.

. I've heard that JQ Ground staff often compete to see who leaves first (race between 611 and whatever the last MEL one is). Crew are AVV, and always want to go home on time/early!

 

[Saab34]

. I've heard that JQ Ground staff often compete to see who leaves first (race between 611 and whatever the last MEL one is). Crew are AVV, and always want to go home on time/early!

I’ve had a lot of bad luck with the last QF and VA flights. The QF is normally a 330 and seems to have a higher chance of being late. These two are often delayed due to late freight or large freight loading. In fact QF497 tonight it didn’t make curfew and didn’t leave.

611 is never cancelled they gotta get the crew and aircraft back to Avv for the 6am departure next morning! If they are late into Sydney before they do a Gold Coast run they normally cancel that flight and sit on the ground until 10pm back home as they only have an hour to play with.

The Melbourne one is norm a 321 and can be late.