Qantas Delays/Cancellations

[Melburnian1]

The cycle of a late B744 on QF16 (daily LAX - BNE) resulting in the morning QF15 (BNE - LAX) also unpunctual is continuing with the latter on Saturday 30 July having departed 54 minutes late at 1054 for an expected 0655 hours, 55 minutes late arrival in 'Hollywood'.

In the other direction the Friday 29 July tag flight from JFK to LAX, QF12 (B744) departed 59 minutes late at 1909 hours, arriving 25 minutes late at 2130. This then did not help the A388 on the onward QF12 sector to SYD, which pushed back 62 minutes late at 2332. Sunday 31 July arrival is expected to be 40 minutes tardy at 0710.

QF16 departed 58 minutes late at 0018 hours on Saturday 30 July. It is suggested as only being 10 minutes late into BNE on Sunday morning with an 0620 hours arrival projected.

Conversely QF94 departed LAX 34 minutes tardy but is predicted to not arrive MEL on Sunday 31 July until 0750, 50 minutes behind the timetable and unfortunately again resulting in a delay to the LAX-bound 0915 hours scheduled QF93.

 

[kavo]

Qantas QF2455 Moranbah-Brisbane. In the last 4 months or so here is the lowdown:
44% chance of Cancellation
23% chance of delay
33% chance of On time

 

[Melburnian1]

Qantas QF2455 Moranbah-Brisbane. In the last 4 months or so here is the lowdown:
44% chance of Cancellation
23% chance of delay
33% chance of On time

kavo, yes, I have remarked previously on the huge numbers of cancellations on the BNE - MOV and return route. One AFF member, who was a regular passenger on the route even suggested that QF's strategy was to cancel flights almost at the last minute as a way of stopping passengers from easily rebooking on competitor VA at a reasonable fare.

Moranbah has been badly hit by the fall in coal prices. It even made it into some article I read about Australian localities where housing rents had significantly dropped.

The June 2016 BITRE domestic airline punctuality report states that of 113 timetabled BNE - MOV Qantaslink flights, 15 were cancelled (a rate of 13.3 per cent) while of VA's 66 flights, all operated.

These are unacceptable figures for Qantaslink or indeed for any air or surface regular public transport operator but AJ and others may not care because it is such a small route.

 

[Melburnian1]

Capping off a poor month for punctuality on its LAX flights, QF's flight 93 on Sunday 31 July has been delayed in its MEL departure from 0915 to a suggested 1030 hours.

QF1062, the 0930 from SYD to KGI departed 50 minutes late at 1020. Arrival should be 40 minutes late at 1230. With the downturn in mining and resources it is surprising that a flight like this has not been cancelled.

The first QF flight of the day to HKG, QF127 was initially shown as amended to depart SYD 20 minutes tardy at 1025 but this proved to be a huge underestimate of the delay as it eventually pushed back at 1116. HKG arrival is suggested as 45 minutes late at 1805. In contrast QF117 pushed back at 1117, one minute later but is shown as arriving tonight at 1840, on time but quite a lot slower than QF127.

QF27, the 1230 SYD - SCL did not depart until 1318. Same day arrival should be at 1205, 55 minutes tardy.

 

[Melburnian1]

While the Sunday 31 July arriving QF10 in MEL ex LHR and DXB is estimated to arrive five minutes early at 2050, the departing QF9 is forecast to depart two hours and 35 minutes late at 0130 hours on Monday 1 August.

DXB arrival should be two hours late at 0905 on Monday with pushback at 1035 instead of 0905 for an estimated 1530, rather than 1415, mid afternoon arrival in London. Not sure why there is a delay ex MEL tonight: no obvious reason.

 

[kavo]

snip

I once got a text message saying my flight had been cancelled. I ignored it because I only just got off that flight in bris. Same text the next day so I ring up and find it was the week coming. I asked the lady on the phone what the reason was for cancellation. She told me it was "unplanned maintenance" I work in maintenance so I found this funny

 

[Flyerqf]

While the Sunday 31 July arriving QF10 in MEL ex LHR and DXB is estimated to arrive five minutes early at 2050, the departing QF9 is forecast to depart two hours and 35 minutes late at 0130 hours on Monday 1 August.

DXB arrival should be two hours late at 0905 on Monday with pushback at 1035 instead of 0905 for an estimated 1530, rather than 1415, mid afternoon arrival in London. Not sure why there is a delay ex MEL tonight: no obvious reason.

Possibly related to the cancellation of QF93 today, given both are A380.

 

[Melburnian1]

Possibly related to the cancellation of QF93 today, given both are A380.

Thank you Flyerqf. Information from Sunday 31 July QF93 as to what alternative arrangements, hotel overnights, taxi vouchers or cold hard cash were offered (if any) would be welcome. It is not school holidays so flights may well not be full, but say there were 400 passengers booked on today's QF93: it is a lot to find spare seats for on other carriers.

The Saturday 30 July QF94 (LAX - MEL) departed 83 minutes late with Monday 1 August 2016 arrival likely 75 minutes tardy at 0815 hours, again probably delaying QF93 back to LAX. QF12 departed LAX 62 late with Monday SYD arrival set for 45 minutes behind the timetable at 0715. QF16 (B744 LAX to BNE) is also affected with departure having been 98 minutes late and arrival predicted an hour late on Monday morning.

New York has experienced some turbulent weather in the last few days so this may explain the majority of the delayed flights. The LAX - JFK - LAX legs of the B744 that originates and terminates in BNE are a constraint on most of the QF Oz east coast - USA west coast (LAX, not SFO) operations as many passengers connect between flights. One might assume that late running would be worst during the US winter due to snowstorms and ice, but summer must have issues as well given what has been recently occurring.

 

[Melburnian1]

The delayed Sunday 31 July QF9 did not depart MEL until 0207 hours on Monday 1 August, later than QF had predicted. The DXB stop has been further put back to an estimated 1015 to 1135 - which is quick for there though not impossible - and a suggested LHR arrival of 1630 rather than 1415, still in plenty of time to form the Monday evening QF2 back to DXB, and onwards to SYD.

QF153, the early start 0620 hours MEL across to AKL did not push back until 0818, meaning likely arrival of 1335, 100 minutes behind the timetable.

QF411, the 0730 SYD - MEL (A332 VH-EBM) took off hardly late at 0753 but due to a hold over Mt Buller (Vic.) and a number of aircraft in front of it will arrive about 32 minutes late at 0937. The earlier QF407, the 0715, took off from SYD at 0747 hours and should arrive about 36 minutes late at 0936 with B738 VH-VXK the aircraft.

Due to the LAX delays in post 3448 above, the Monday 1 August QF93 is predicted to depart 75 minutes late at 1030 ex MEL but arrive only 20 minutes down at 0655 at LAX.

 

[burnt]

Just sitting in LAX F lounge, QF 94 to MEL has been cancelled, lucky I am on QF16

 

[Melburnian1]

On Monday 1 August QF11, the 0950 hours SYD - LAX (A388 VH-OQH) was airborne at 1056, about 40 minutes late. LAX arrival should be 20 minutes late at 0650 hours same day.

QF93 was expected as above to depart at 1030 from MEL for LAX but has been further put back to 1100 with a forecast 50 minute tardy, 0725 hours arrival. While one has no way of knowing which is more timely if booking in advance, the infrequent B744 on QF95, the 1150 hours MEL - LAX may be the more punctual today.

The 0910 hours tourist-timed QF702 from MEL to CNS (B738 VH-XZA) was not in the sky until 1057 so arrival will be approximately 59 minutes late at 1334 this afternoon.

 

[FlyboyAl]

Just sitting in LAX F lounge, QF 94 to MEL has been cancelled, lucky I am on QF16

Hmmmm. That will be me in 3 weeks. Whilst I love the lounge, I'd be a little unimpressed!

 

[Melburnian1]

Hmmmm. That will be me in 3 weeks. Whilst I love the lounge, I'd be a little unimpressed!

FlyboyAl, while the punctuality of QF94 is not great, with a FlightStats rating of only 0.4 out of 5 for the past 61 days, the good news is that there has only been one cancellation in 62 days - the one referred to above. While every day is different, past performance suggests that you would have to have collected a very short straw for the flight to not be operating. Arriving on time may be another matter with FlightStats suggesting that 'excessive' delays - a term it does not define, but probably above an hour late in arriving - occur 24 per cent of the time. A longer duration sample size of 365 days would be preferable to obtain a delay picture with a smaller sample error.

There was also one diversion in 62 days, for which common reasons include adverse weather at the destination and someone on board suffering a coronary. While episodes of the latter on board flights might come off a low base, the rising percentage of Australians and North Americans who are overweight or obese may, all other things being equal, be increasing the prevalence of such occurrences.

The 0950 hours SYD - BKK, QF23, departed 75 minutes late with projected arrival at 1810, 90 minutes late, which will delay the departure of QF24 back overnight to SYD.

QF117, the second scheduled Qantas offering of the day from SYD to HKG (the 1215 hours) has been cancelled. While the earlier 1005 hours flight (the longstanding QF127) departed 38 minutes late at 1043, it should only be 10 minutes late into HKG at 1730.

The 1145 hours MEL - SIN, QF35 departed 37 minutes late and should be a similar 35 minutes late tonight in arriving in Lion City at 1830. Earlier, the 1020 MEL - HKG (QF29) departed 33 minutes late but is forecast to lose time with arrival at 1850 being 50 minutes late. In contrast, the BNE - HKG QF97 pushed back 13 minutes early - probably not unprecedented but quite rare to do so more than a small number of minutes before the schedule - so arrival should be 35 minutes early at 1725. This flight ex BNE has a very good timekeeping record.

CX is cancelling flights today (including the mid afternoon and late evening MEL - HKG offerings) presumably due to Tropical Cyclone Nida. QF is not (yet) doing this but may tomorrow as that is when the eye of the storm will be closest to HKG.

QF19 departed SYD 35 minutes tardy at 1245 with MNL arrival estimated 20 minutes behind at 1850 this evening.

 

[Melburnian1]

The Sunday 31 July QF9 ex MEL (which departed on Monday 1 August) spent an hour and 50 minutes at DXB (1001 to 1151) so QF's forecast was over optimistic. LHR arrival was not so long ago shown as 1600 but that became 1615 and now 1630 hours, 150 minutes late.

QF2 is expected to arrive SYD on Tuesday 2 August at 0545, 35 minutes late. Usually this flight is punctual or even early (the latter at least until it gets slowed down, because as I understand it the dispensation window is from 0500 to 0559 in permitted landings for about four flights at SYD for six months of the year, so if a flight such as BA or QF long haul is looking like it might touch down at 0450, that would be against the rules).

QF24 is expected to depart BKK on 1 August at 1915 instead of 1825, arriving SYD on Tuesday 2 at a predicted 0720 hours, 35 minutes tardy.

 

[Himeno]

QF25 diverted to NGO this morning due to weather in Tokyo. Continued to HND after 2 hours.

 

[Melburnian1]

Tuesday 2 August's QF143 (0955 hours SYD across to AKL) took off at 1113 with aircraft B738 ZK-ZQG hence likely to arrive at about 1540 this aftenoon, 40 minutes behind time.

 

[bjm76]

QF117, the second scheduled Qantas offering of the day from SYD to HKG (the 1215 hours) has been cancelled. While the earlier 1005 hours flight (the longstanding QF127) departed 38 minutes late at 1043, it should only be 10 minutes late into HKG at 1730.

Just on this - wondering does anyone know how often QF117 is cancelled - as it is the newest offering from SYD to HKG so interested to hear what loads are like on this flight (not that low loads would ever be the reason for a flight being cancelled )

Am flying QF117 early October so hoping it wont be cancelled.

Thanks

 

[Melburnian1]

Just on this - wondering does anyone know how often QF117 is cancelled - as it is the newest offering from SYD to HKG so interested to hear what loads are like on this flight (not that low loads would ever be the reason for a flight being cancelled

bjm76, appeciate the humour as sometimes airlines cancel flights due to insufficient passengers: MEL - SYD and return is a prime example. They rarely admit it: bad for business.

The FlightStats website suggests that the flight has been cancelled once of 45 occasions.

Loadings will rarely be identical in each direction, so even if QF117 had few bookings and passengers were able to be transferred to fill vacant seats on QF127, the reverse direction may have greater demand on a particular night (given that the return flights are ovenight). While its effect on routes varies, and routes can be seasonal, generally speaking the greater immigration into rather than emigration from Australia means that flights into Australia each year should carry more than flights out - but again, this may not be true for every route.

My 'record' for the lowest number of passengers on a B747 on which I travelled, for instance, was about 50, but many AFFers will be able to beat that as from memory at least one has been among a handful of passengers on an A330.

Unfortunately this far in advance no one can say whether flight X will operate but based on the limited history for this recently introduced flight, your chance of it operating on the day is excellent - as you should expect. The exception might be a cyclone such as today's Nida.

 

[Melburnian1]

While as far as the QF website is concerned, QF29/97/117 and 127 from Australia to HKG are operating normally on Tuesday 2 August, HKG and nearby airports such as CAN appear to be closed at at 1300 hours AEST due to Tropical Cyclone Nida.

Naturally this is badly affecting CX and a host of other airlines such as CZ, with CX having cancelled flights for 16 hours from 2200 on Monday 1 August until 1400 hours HKG time (1600 AEST) on 2 August. This will presumably result in many delays as airlines try to operate earlier flights on amended, later schedules.

Relatively close CRK and MNL appear to be operating normally as at 1300 AEST.

 

[jb747]

A good day not to be flying there. With this forecast and actual, I'd expect the ATIS to include microburst as well.


METAR: VHHH 020335Z 22021KT 180V240 9999 R07R/P2000N R25L/1200N R07L/1600N R25R/P2000N -SHRA FEW010 SCT022 26/24 Q0997 TEMPO 20030G45KT 2000 +SHRA FEW010CB SCT020

TAF: VHHH 020338Z 0203/0306 20030G40KT 7000 FEW015 SCT030 TX27/0206Z TX29/0306Z TN26/0223Z TEMPO 0203/0206 20040G50KT 1500 TSRA +SHRA FEW005 SCT012CB BKN040 TEMPO 0206/0224 2500 +SHRA FEW008CB SCT020 BECMG 0208/0210 18020KT TEMPO 0208/0212 16020G30KT BECMG 0215/0217 15010KT