Qantas Delays/Cancellations

[Awesom Andy]

Better watch outside the window while you're at it. At this rate, someone might come to pinch your engines!

 

[coriander]

Better watch outside the window while you're at it. At this rate, someone might come to pinch your engines!

Only 3 in front of us now.

 

[Ansett]

Only 3 in front of us now.

What Engines lol I think your flight may be slightly longer than the the forecast LOL

Sorry couldnt resist

 

[Melburnian1]

On Wednesday 1 March, QF469 (1615 hours SYD - MEL, B738 VH-VYB) did not take off until 1738. Arrival is likely to be at about 1852 which would be 62 minutes tardy.

QF449, the following 1630 hours departure (VH-VYJ) is not a lot better: it should be at its MEL arrival gate at 1856 hours, 51 late.

 

[jb747]

Push back 1206 - someone pinched our tug.

Australia has the weirdest system with tugs. Whilst you may have one connected well prior to being ready, most of the time you won't get anything until you actually call up and ask for push back clearance. And they regularly nick off.

 

[Cessna 180]

The three red eye Perth to east coast are all still parked due heavy rain and lightning in Perth presently.

 

[Melburnian1]

On Thursday 2 March, B738 VH-XZF on QF795, the 0615 hours CBR - MEL did not take off until 0657, so predicted arrival has become 41 minutes tardy at 0806 hours.

QF670, the 0605 hours ADL - MEL did not take off until 0656 (B738 VH-VXN) with a 39 minute late arrival at 0834 the forecast result. Following flight QF674 is about 38 late with forecast arrival at around 0908 hours (VH-VZD.)

These delays may be due to the predicted fog in MEL. At 0745, a VicRoads webcam on the Western Ring Road at Airport Drive was not showing fog but it may have cleared, allowing the above flights to depart from their origins as above.

QF408 and QF418 (respectively the 0700 and 0900 hours MEL - SYD) have been cancelled. The same fate has befallen QF403 and QF411 from SYD down to MEL. This may have more to do with the weather than capacity management.

QF405 (the 0630 hours SYD - MEL, B738 VH-VXF) took off at 0737; arrival should be at roughly 0851 hours, 46 minutes tardy.

QF1500, the first of the morning from HBA to MEL at a timetabled 0605 hours was airborne at 0650. B717 VH-YQS should arrive at around 0826, 61 minutes late. QF1501, the 0815 hours MEL - HBA is showing on one website as departing at 0900 but that may be an understatement of the delay.

 

[Melburnian1]

Late flights are continuing as a feature of Thursday 2 March due to the above mentioned suspected earlier MEL fog. QF407, the 0715 hours from SYD down to MEL took off almost an hour late at 0827. B738 VH-VYD should arrive at around 0955, 65 minutes tardy.

QF488 (0845 hours MEL - SYD, VH-VXN) was airborne at 0948 so arrival will not be much before 1100 compared with the timetabled 1010 on blocks.

At 0949 hours, B738 VH-VZY on QF605 (0600 first of the morning BNE to MEL that was in the sky at 0705) remained in a holding pattern a little to Bendigo's east. Arrival is suggested as 1012, 52 minutes behind schedule.

The 1 March QF30 from HKG to MEL departed 23 minutes late at 2013. On Thursday 2 March, it diverted to SYD, presumably due to the MEL fog, arriving at 0850. It is predicted to depart SYD at 1035 for a 1225 hours arrival in the southern capital, 250 minutes later than the timetabled 0815 hours.

As a result the Thursday 2 March 2017 QF29 from MEL back to HKG has been delayed from 1115 in its departure to an expected 1430 hours. The flow on effect will see QF30 from HKG to MEL departing later than timetable tonight.

On Wednesday 1, QF80 from NRT to MEL departed at 2151, 171 minutes behind schedule. MEL arrival on Thursday 2 should be at 1100, 210 minutes tardy. The 1220 MEL - SIN (QF35) is showing as 'on time.'

However the 0915 hours Thurday 2 QF79 (MEL - NRT) was able to depart just 33 minutes late by using the A330 from SIN that had come in as QF36 at 0611, four minutes early. QF79 is suggested to arrive in NRT half an hour late at 0900 tonight.

QF417 (B738 VH-VYJ, the 0830 hours SYD - MEL that took off at 0912) should arrive at about 1050, 45 late. The next southbound (QF461 - B738 VH-XZN) was airborne at 0940 and is showing as arriving at 1104, 44 minutes behind schedule. The 0900 next flight ex SYD, QF419 is also above Mt Buller doing circuits so it should arrive with A332 VH-EBP at about 1109, 34 minutes late.

The 0840 hours CBR - MEL B717, VH-NXJ, looks to be arriving at about 1106 hours, 76 late after taking off at 0946. QF1529 is the flight number.

QF420, widebody A332 VH-EBA, the 0930 hours from MEL up to SYD took off at 1036. Arrival should be at about 1156, 61 minutes behind time.

 

[Melburnian1]

On Thursday 2 March, the expected delay to QF29 from MEL to HKG has blown out to 1530 from the previous advice of 1430 hours, meaning a long wait in HKG for passengers booked on tonight's delayed as a result QF30.

The additional delay is because B744 VH-OEG on the diverted inbound has yet to depart SYD, with FR24 showing a predicted takeoff time of 1310. If that is so and VH-OEG is continuing on to HKG as QF29 ex MEL, then '1530 hours' as a departure out of MEL will be impossible because a B744 needs at least an hour and a half (similar to an A380) to turn around. QF29 will be unlikely to depart from MEL before 1600 this afternoon.

UPDATE: As I was writing the above, QF again altered the expected departure time on 2 March of QF29 from MEL to 1630 for its journey north to HKG. A post-midnight departure for QF30 tonight ex HKG looks to be the case, significantly later than the 1950 hours departure shown in the timetable.

The words of AFF member JohnPhelan about how QF was unwise to dispose of two B744s are again arguably proven correct.

 

[Awesom Andy]

On Thursday 2 March, the expected delay to QF29 from MEL to HKG has blown out to 1530 from the previous advice of 1430 hours, meaning a long wait in HKG for passengers booked on tonight's delayed as a result QF30.

The additional delay is because B744 VH-OEG on the diverted inbound has yet to depart SYD, with FR24 showing a predicted takeoff time of 1310. If that is so and VH-OEG is continuing on to HKG as QF29 ex MEL, then '1530 hours' as a departure out of MEL will be impossible because a B744 needs at least an hour and a half (similar to an A380) to turn around. QF29 will be unlikely to depart from MEL before 1600 this afternoon.

UPDATE: As I was writing the above, QF again altered the expected departure time on 2 March of QF29 from MEL to 1630 for its journey north to HKG. A post-midnight departure for QF30 tonight ex HKG looks to be the case, significantly later than the 1950 hours departure shown in the timetable.

The words of AFF member JohnPhelan about how QF was unwise to dispose of two B744s are again arguably proven correct.

I'm guessing that if they kept the spare 744s, they would probably be stationed in Sydney. And I'm guessing that QF29 is still grounded due to the crew running out of hours. If this is indeed the case, keeping spares wouldn't make much of a difference.

QF30 is still showing as on time at the moment. Note that this is standard QF practice, and the updated time won't appear until QF29 has taken off (or about to do so).

 

[Melburnian1]

Also on Thursday 2 March 2017, QF35 (1220 MEL - SIN) had push back commence at 1337, so arrival in the Lion City is expected half an hour late at 1755.

 

[Melburnian1]

I'm guessing that if they kept the spare 744s, they would probably be stationed in Sydney. And I'm guessing that QF29 is still grounded due to the crew running out of hours. If this is indeed the case, keeping spares wouldn't make much of a difference.

There's no doubt that in the hypothetical case of JohnPhelan and other AFFers having been listened to by the all knowing, 'we never make a mistake' QF management, those two B744s would have been based in SYD.

However with a fresh crew - who admittedly would take some time to be called up for duty, get to the airport, sign on and undertake all the other necessary pre-flight tasks - and a spare B744 that could be provisioned as per normal in MEL for QF29 - an empty ('ferry') flight might have been able to operate somewhat earlier than today's diverted QF30 between SYD and MEL, and importantly would be less likely to face the crew running out of hours.

QF may have known from 0600 or before about MEL being fog bound this morning as multiple domestic airlines' flights from other airports were delayed in their takeoff, presumably by ATC.

B744 VH-OEG on the aforesaid QF29 departed MEL at 1624, 309 minutes late with suggested arrival in HKG at 2215, 275 minutes tardy.

It looks like QF29 upon arrival in HKG may be forming QF128, the scheduled 1950 hours from HKG to SYD as it has an altered departure time of 2345 with SYD arrival on Friday 3 March predicted as 1130 hours rather than 0755.

At this stage, VH-OEG then looks on Friday to be forming QF27, the 1250 hours from SYD for the long trip across to SCL. If so, it will be late departing. The 90 minute assumed turnaround in HKG tonight is the minimum a B744 requires and leaves no margin for small problems to be attended to.

The 1530 hours midafternoon QF630 from MEL to BNE was airborne at 1645 hours (B738 VH-VXM) with predicted arrival 58 minutes behind time at 1738. VH-VXF on QF626, the scheduled 1610 hours departure on the same route is just ahead of the delayed QF630, showing at times what a lottery departures on good frequency routes can be.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

i thought planes could land in fog? or is it just Melbourne where they can't?

 

[Awesom Andy]

i thought planes could land in fog? or is it just Melbourne where they can't?

The answer would be yes and no. Low visibility operations depends on the equipment available, and whether the operations can meet with the required conditions/restrictions. I believe this has been touched on by our pilots in the super-long Ask the Pilots thread, and they can explain it a lot better than I can ever do.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

The answer would be yes and no. Low visibility operations depends on the equipment available, and whether the operations can meet with the required conditions/restrictions. I believe this has been touched on by our pilots in the super-long Ask the Pilots thread, and they can explain it a lot better than I can ever do.

I guess the question is... if we don't have the equipment, why not?

 

[Awesom Andy]

I guess the question is... if we don't have the equipment, why not?

As far as I'm aware, MEL has CAT IIIb available, although I don't think the equipment is in use at the moment due to reasons which I cannot recall. I don't think anywhere else in Australia has it installed. I believe the costs to install and maintain such systems are very high, and costs generally cannot be justified unless it's somewhere with a lot of traffic, and the airport is regularly fogged in. Even then, autoland is not magic, and require certain conditions to be fulfilled before it can be used successfully for each landing.

 

[Quickstatus]

Requirements for low vis operations (as I understand it)

Airport ILS approved for autoland. There are different levels of autolands. CatIII landings are in weather conditions where visual references are not sufficient to allow for manual landings.
Often buildings and obstructions need to be moved to build an ILS certified for autolands as the ILS signals are highly directional
Runway and taxiway lighting is of a certain standard
Aircraft itself needs to be certified/ and recertified for autolands
ILS sterile area - aircraft and vehicles must not encroach on the sterile areas which may degrade the ILS signals to the autoland aircraft. This means increased separation in the air and on the ground in an already increasingly congested airspace due to low visibilty. Contamination of the ILs signal will degrade autoland capability.
ATC must be notified to ensure the sterile areas (unlike the SQ B777 which ran off the runway during an autoland in Munich a few years back)
There are Headwind, tailwind, crosswind limitations specific for the autoland system
Both pilots must have currency in the autoland system??
Double or triple redundancy 3 autopilots, 3 ILS receivers, 3 radio altimeters, 3 flight control computers, and 3 ways to control the flight control surfaces.
Mobile phones completely turned off not just in flight mode??
Extra fuel as flight is likely to be holding in the air for longer. Fog can dramatically reduce the movement capacity in the air and on the ground at the airport.
Crew hours as flight is likely to be holding in the air for longer
To maintain currency in all this: $$$

Have I missed anything?

 

[Melburnian1]

...Low visibility operations depends on the equipment available, and whether the operations can meet with the required conditions/restrictions. I believe this has been touched on by our pilots in the super-long Ask the Pilots thread, and they can explain it a lot better than I can ever do.

While it is not the total answer sought, here is an extract dated 13 January 2017 from post number 10562 in the AFF 'Ask the Pilot' thread:

For the 787, the trip towards Europe will be the range limiting sector. But, that doesn't matter too much, as there are untold runways within Europe that can handle any early landing. Heading the other way, because of the winds, you're looking at a dramatically shorter flight. The upshot is that if needed, even Adelaide is likely to be within reach. Perth, like most Australian airports, is under serviced by decent approach aids. Hopefully either (or better, both) CAT IIIB ILS and GBAS will be installed. Both would allow operation in fog. Kalgoolie is certainly viable - its biggest issue was the limited parking.

--------------

We will all leave it up to the aviators to answer the question posed above. From memory Awesom Andy is on the right path: there has been something deficient mentioned in AFF about MEL, but finding it on AFF is hard because one has to input the correct search term(s).

 

[Melburnian1]

Thursday 2 March 2017's flagship QF1 (1645 hours SYD - DXB - LHR) has been delayed until 1130 on Friday 3 March. The DXB stop is predicted to be 1855 to 2025 with LHR arrival 0020 hours on Saturday 4 March, 17 hours and 30 minutes late.

Advice from anyone booked as to what if any hotel they have been accommodated in Sydney this evening would be interesting.

QF10 on Friday 3 March is predicted to depart LHR at 1440 hours instead of 1155, 165 minutes tardy. It looks to be formed by the QF9 arrival rather than the extremely late QF1. The DXB stop is estimated as commencing at 0130 on Saturday 4 April but beyond that QF has not forecast the timings. An 0300 departure might mean a MEL Friday evening arrival time around 2300, delaying the Friday 3 March departure of QF9 by around an hour to an hour and a half if there are no 'new' problems.

All this must mean the Friday 3 March QF2 is delayed ex LHR (and DXB) but that notification has yet to publicly appear.

Heathrow has an annual cap on 'night flights' and also does not schedule any departures between 2300 and 0600 (sound familiar, SYD?)

If the flight and cabin crews are available, can a delayed QF2 depart at say 0220 in the small hours?

http://www.heathrow.com/noise/heathrow-operations/night-flights

Meanwhile on Wednesday 1 March, the B744-operated QF12 arrived ex JFK in LAX at 2112, 17 minutes late. However the A388-operated same flight number continuation did not depart LAX until 0207 on Thursday 2 March (217 minutes late) with expected SYD arrival on Friday 3 at 1130, an even three hours (180 minutes) behind schedule. This must have been a one-off delay affecting QF12 as QF94 is forecast to be 15 minutes early and QF16 on time into MEL and BNE respectively on Friday morning.

On Thursday 2 March, QF80 (1900 hours NRT - MEL) departed 54 minutes late so Friday 3 morning arrival is forecast to be 50 late at 0820 hours.

 

[moa999]

The words of AFF member JohnPhelan about how QF was unwise to dispose of two B744s are again arguably proven correct.

But if they'd kept them (and spent what the needed to - probably a C/D-check) I suspect they would have been running additional flights so same issue.

They've decided in the current environment they need to squeeze everything out of the fleet they can