Qantas / Emirates tie up (Partnership inc. Codeshare, Status)

[Must...Fly!]

That figure represents all airlines and can be found readily as it is public info...

 

[ajw373]

That figure represents all airlines and can be found readily as it is public info...

I realise that. However as mentioned this thread, or should I say this conversation is SPECIFICALLY about Qantas supposedly abandoning Europe so not sure what the figures show. Now I will of course accept that before the change Qantas had two A330's a day SIN-PER and are now down to 1, so at a guess (and it is a guess because those figures a absolutely and utterly meaningless in the context of this conversation) we could say 300 of those pax ventured further towards Europe on Qantas or BA. Sure now maybe Qantas has handed them over to EK, but in the process has opened them up to significantly more destinations with less travel time, whilst of course they have also made it easier for the 900 or so passengers a day from Syd and Mel to get to Europe and elsewhere too. So on balance more benefit than loose.

This of course is coming from someone who would prefer to transit Singapore compared to Dubai if I were going to London, but am very much appreciative of being able to access more or Europe without having to transit LHR and back track on BA short haul.

 

[katiebell]

So what EUROPEAN routes (or any route for that matter) has Qantas handed to EK? From what I recall none actually. Sure they have dropped FRA, but no in favour of Emirates and they still fly to London. They also still fly to Singapore, but yes have dropped ONE PER-SIN flight, ONE PER-HKG flight and ONE ADL-SIN flight which ran a couple days a week, and last time I looked SIN and HKG were in Asia not Europe. So note really sure what routes Qantas has handed to EK.

look up BNE ADL or PER to LHR: all flights ex are on EK (previously on QF) some from PER connect to QF. and occ ADL is dom to MEL on QF; the rest are EK all the way. This, to me, looks like selling out to EK from most Australian ports

 

[Awesom Andy]

Also tried SIN-LHR. For the day I tried, there's no BA non-stop flights, no connection to QF in DXB, but only EK flights all the way SIN-DXB-LHR/LGW on QF codes.

 

[markis10]

I realise that. However as mentioned this thread, or should I say this conversation is SPECIFICALLY about Qantas supposedly abandoning Europe so not sure what the figures show. .

The figures show the actual market (not the TAM or total available market) for travel to Singapore direct ex Adelaide and Perth, given the well stated preference for non AFFers to fly direct as possible, a reasonable person would expect a significant proportion of those travellers are not SIN destination focused travellers but those travelling through to Europe. By Qantas withdrawing from Adelaide and halving the Perth flights, its a reasonable assumption to say that those still wanting to go direct as much as possible are now flying EK to keep their QF points etc. Those figures would also include people travelling on QF to SIN to connect with AY, a not insignificant figure, Go figure

North West Europe attracted 73400 Australian passengers in Jan while South and Eastern Europe attracted 30300, from a total of 695300 Australians that departed Australian in Jan, thats 15% of all travellers.

You would argue. But not sure were your figures come from but there is no way Qantas (and remember this discussion is about Qantas) was carrying 28000 a month from Adelaide considering they had, what 4 or 5 A330's a week, and likewise Perth didn't carry 99000 a month to Singapore and beyond either as that would be over 3000 passengers a day. In fact I didn't realise there were 10 300+ a/c a day flighing PER-SIN. Lets not of course not forget that Singapore is not Europe, whilst yes some of those passengers may well have being going onwards.

No one is saying Qantas was carrying all the passengers, it would be a Qantas wet dream to say so, but if you stop all services to a market that services 28000 passengers a month then you are giving someone a free pass, in this case EK and we will see how much as soon as BITRE and the ABS release stats for mid to late this year when the dust settles. Adelaide had 70000 passengers in Jan, Perth 367962, if the figure of 15% of all Australian resident departures is used to assess the actual European bound market, that means 10500 passengers ex ADL (350 a day) and 55194 passengers ex PER (1839 a day) are on offer (as the total market) to EK for those still wanting QF points and possibly SCs as they head to/from Europe.

 

[ajw373]

So your good with figures, can you pleae provide how many of the Qantas passengers flying to Singapore from Perth, Adelaide and Brisbane were then flying on Qantas or BA services to London and Frankfurt and beyond. With those figures and just those figures (it is pointless saying 99,000 people fly PER to SIN in a given month in the context of this 'debate') will we be able to have a sensible debate about how many people Qantas have handed over to EK which is what the proposition I was replying to was stating. (although clarification they did specificaly say routes, not passengers, I still argue Qantas has not handed ROUTES to EK, but will accept some passengers)

 

[markis10]

So your good with figures, can you pleae provide how many of the Qantas passengers flying to Singapore from Perth, Adelaide and Brisbane were then flying on Qantas or BA services to London and Frankfurt and beyond. With those figures and just those figures (it is pointless saying 99,000 people fly PER to SIN in a given month in the context of this 'debate') will we be able to have a sensible debate about how many people Qantas have handed over to EK which is what the proposition I was replying to was stating. (although clarification they did specificaly say routes, not passengers, I still argue Qantas has not handed ROUTES to EK, but will accept some passengers)

LOL not surprisingly thats commercially sensitive data! Nice try. As I already said, the EK stats ex Adelaide will give a great picture when they start being published, as DXB is hardly a destination in itself other than as a stopover.

 

[ajw373]

LOL not surprisingly thats commercially sensitive data! Nice try. As I already said, the EK stats ex Adelaide will give a great picture when they start being published, as DXB is hardly a destination in itself other than as a stopover.

Yeah not surprising it is commercially sensative, so why give figures that LOOK bad, and in the context of this discussion are meaningless?

 

[markis10]

Yeah not surprising it is commercially sensative, so why give figures that LOOK bad, and in the context of this discussion are meaningless?

Figures look bad because its reality, as posted by the ABS and BITRE, hardly meaningless, if there was no market to handover then EK would not have stepped in and increased capacity, the figures give you a clue as to why , Perth went from 35191 passengers to Dubai in 2012 to 44894 this year (per month - using Jan data) , wonder who they flew with ?

 

[Anna]

FWIW the figures quoted by Lesley Grant at the QFF drinks function in ADL were 70% of ADL pax on QF81 continued to Europe, 30% stopped in SIN.

 

[ajw373]

Figures look bad because its reality, as posted by the ABS and BITRE, hardly meaningless, if there was no market to handover then EK would not have stepped in and increased capacity, the figures give you a clue as to why , Perth went from 35191 passengers to Dubai in 2012 to 44894 this year (per month - using Jan data) , wonder who they flew with ?

The figures are meaningless in the CONTEXT of this discussion simply because it is, as you say 'commercial in confidence' to know where people fly to once they hit Singapore.

 

[markis10]

[mod hat off] My thoughts as a member!

Picture Credit : http://amyrousedotnet.files.wordpress.com/2011/12/head-in-sand2.jpg

 

[ajw373]

FWIW the figures quoted by Lesley Grant at the QFF drinks function in ADL were 70% of ADL pax on QF81 continued to Europe, 30% stopped in SIN.

I could well beleive that 30% stayed in Singapore, but 70% going to Europe, don't think so. Maybe 70% continuted on to elsewhere including Asia. The reason I doubt it is specificaly to Europe, lets say that 70% figure is representative of all flights they didn't have enough capacity to carry 70% of all passengers from Australia to Singapore onwards to Europe.

For the caculation they had 2x A330 ex Per, 1x 747 ex BNE, 1x 747 + 1x A380 ex Syd and 1x A380 ex Mel and 1x A330 5 times a week ex Adl. (or was it 4 times?)

Assuming seating capacity of 300 for an A330-300, 370 for a 747 and 460 (middle ground between new and old config) for an A380 we have a total of 17320 seats per week from Australia to Singapore on Qantas. 70% of 17320 is 12124. But they had 1x 747 and 2x A380's going on to Europe, which represents 9030 setas a week which based on 70% continuing gives a short fall of 3094 seats.

So clearly if 30% stayed 3094 passengers were already not flying on Qantas.

 

[ajw373]

Picture Credit : http://amyrousedotnet.files.wordpress.com/2011/12/head-in-sand2.jpg

As you are a moderator, I find this post rather offensive. My head is not in the sand, just pointing out your figures mean nothing in the CONTEXT OF THIS SPECIFIC conversation. Please prove otherwise without being offensive.

 

[geordieladinoz]

I could well beleive that 30% stayed in Singapore, but 70% going to Europe, don't think so. Maybe 70% continuted on to elsewhere including Asia. The reason I doubt it is specificaly to Europe, lets say that 70% figure is representative of all flights they didn't have enough capacity to carry 70% of all passengers from Australia to Singapore onwards to Europe.

For the caculation they had 2x A330 ex Per, 1x 747 ex BNE, 1x 747 + 1x A380 ex Syd and 1x A380 ex Mel and 1x A330 5 times a week ex Adl. (or was it 4 times?)

Assuming seating capacity of 300 for an A330-300, 370 for a 747 and 460 (middle ground between new and old config) for an A380 we have a total of 17320 seats per week from Australia to Singapore on Qantas. 70% of 17320 is 12124. But they had 1x 747 and 2x A380's going on to Europe, which represents 9030 setas a week which based on 70% continuing gives a short fall of 3094 seats.

So clearly if 30% stayed 3094 passengers were already not flying on Qantas.

I read the 70% quoted by Anna in the previous post to be ADL passengers off QF81 ONLY, not all QF flights ex AUS so I think your calculations are invalid?

Good maths though!

 

[markis10]

As you are a moderator, I find this post rather offensive. My head is not in the sand, just pointing out your figures mean nothing in the CONTEXT OF THIS SPECIFIC conversation. Please prove otherwise without being offensive.

Ignoring stats, is it not symbolic of head in the sand culture?

I think anyone who does is very much in that case, in your context you have pointed out that the ones provided are irrelevant in your opinion, which is your right. Time will tell if thats the case.

Was it right thing for Qantas to do, versus gains made elsewhere, again time will tell, luckily its not my sheep farm on the line (its already been sold to the Chinese ).

 

[ajw373]

I read the 70% quoted by Anna in the previous post to be ADL passengers off QF81 ONLY, not all QF flights ex AUS so I think your calculations are invalid?

Good maths though!

Yep, but as mentioned the assumption I clearly stated was that figure was representative of all flights. Cannot see why it wouldn't be either.

 

[markis10]

Yep, but as mentioned the assumption I clearly stated was that figure was representative of all flights. Cannot see why it wouldn't be either.

That assumption works if South Australia is equal to other states on ratios when it comes to Singapore bound/originated traffic, which is not the case:




Versus UK to SA visitors for comparison

http://tourism.sa.gov.au/assets/documents/uk-market-profile.pdf

 

[ajw373]

That assumption works if South Australia is equal to other states on ratios when it comes to Singapore bound/originated traffic, which is not the case:

View attachment 16410


Versus UK to SA visitors for comparison

http://tourism.sa.gov.au/assets/documents/uk-market-profile.pdf

View attachment 16411

Another interesting looking statistic, but can you please explain how this proves or disproves that the traffic on FLIGHTS from Adelaide to Singapore differs in % split (vistitors to/from Singapore, visitors to/from places beyond Singapore) to other ports in Australia? That is what is being debated now.

 

[markis10]

Another interesting looking statistic, but can you please explain how this proves or disproves that the traffic on FLIGHTS from Adelaide to Singapore differs in % split (vistitors to/from Singapore, visitors to/from places beyond Singapore) to other ports in Australia? That is what is being debated now.

Total arrivals from Singapore into Australia 278000 in the year ended June 2012, SA share 12000 or 4.3%. Thats data sourced from the inbound arrivals card, I think boat arrivals from SIN fit into the statistic sample lower than error rate category Visitors from the UK for the year ended June are 337000 of which 54000 came in via SA representing just under 16% of the SA total.

National totals of UK visitors represent 10% of all visitors, yet SA attracts 16%, national totals for Singaporeans account 5.3% of all visitors while SA only accounts for 4%. SA is lifting above its weight for UK arrivals, below its weight for Singaporean on a percentage share basis.