Qantas FY2016 results announcement - what to expect

[moa999]

Qantas is due to release its results on 24 August 2016...
Historically this is the day that Qantas also releases other notable information (eg Heathrow lounge and Wifi at the HY2016, 8 Dreamliners at the FY2015 results)

So thought I'd start a thread on what people are expecting (note this is mere speculation, I'm not an insider)

Likely
- Profit before tax above $1.5bn
- Small dividend of maybe 5/10c - first in many many years (although they have recently conducted a share buyback)
- Detail on completion of 330 and 737 refurb, and timing for the mini-refurb on the 747
- Detail on seats/ interior layout of 787s
- Timing on Wifi trials/ rollout
- Auckland lounge upgrade (been mentioned for years)

Possible
- New routes (with the additional two available 330s once refurbs complete) - maybe back to PEK (with the new MU partnership given its an CA route)

Less likely
- More Dreamliner orders for 2019 onwards (replace remaining 747s/330s, albeit maybe a few years too early)
- Widebody orders (either 777s associated with some Dreamliner right cancellations, or 350s associated with cancellation of the remaining A380s that are still on the books)
- Narrowbody orders for replacement of existing 737s (again recent refurb suggests maybe not, some 321neos in QF colours perhaps)

Guess away

 

[QFflyermelbourne]

I'd like to see an announcement of an A380 midlife overhaul with new J and F to stay competitive. However OQA was a 2008 bird so assuming a 20 year span 2018 is probably the target and therefore an announcement next year is more likely. Having said that, some of the sky beds are seriously showing their age. I imagine the F product is the same.

 

[Buzzard]

I had a dream that Qantas announced they were ordering the new 747-9

I know, I know, it was just a dream.

Boeing 747-9 Intercontinental Business Class Cabin Mockup at Boeing Customer Experience - 2010

 

[yohy?!]

ill take the pessimist's cap and foreshadow aircraft orders being deferred, the 747 being kept longer and any capex into things like cabin upgrades or lounges being deferred

too much discounting going on on transpacific and kangaroo route and too little diversification of the int network to be throwing money around.

 

[njba]

In only 4 posts we have a spread that covers almost every possible option. Well done, AFF!

 

[AustraliaPoochie]

Pedantic to some I know, but a profit dividend and a capital dividend are not the same thing.
That last one was a capital dividend, and also share reduction.
I see in my tail wag that AJ will say, "No guidance" (in regards to a profit dividend).
Its just too soon I feel for them to put out a profit dividend, seeing that they have just gotten out of the red not so long ago.
I do hold 155 QF shares.
I would be happy if no profit dividends came out, just so long as there are no further QFF enhancements.
OR at least 1 Dreamliner 787 brought into domestic operations.

 

[samh004]

I think we'll hear details on the wifi rollout/trials, but probably not the cabin interiors for the 787-9 just yet as it's still a little early.

I'd like to see an announcement of an A380 midlife overhaul with new J and F to stay competitive. However OQA was a 2008 bird so assuming a 20 year span 2018 is probably the target and therefore an announcement next year is more likely. Having said that, some of the sky beds are seriously showing their age. I imagine the F product is the same.

I think this is important, and might come at the same time as the cabin announcement for the 787-9 so they can have a similar product on both planes.

I seriously hope deferred A380 orders don't become A350 orders instead, as it's essentially the same plane as the 787. They'd be better off switching those to A320's for JQ (probably a bit late for JQ to give back the 787-8's in a swap for A350's) and going for some 777-9X's for QF.

OR at least 1 Dreamliner 787 brought into domestic operations.

Perhaps we'll get lucky with some domestic testing of the aircraft before it's used internationally.

 

[moa999]

I seriously hope deferred A380 orders don't become A350 orders instead, as it's essentially the same plane as the 787. They'd be better off switching those to A320's for JQ (probably a bit late for JQ to give back the 787-8's in a swap for A350's) and going for some 777-9X's for QF.
.

When I mentioned the 350 was thinking the 350-1000 which size wise is almost the same pax numbers as a 777-300, agree the smaller variants are in 787-9 territory

Should have had A380 reconfig in my list as well - but I'd see this as probably another 12mths down the track

 

[ajw373]

I seriously hope deferred A380 orders don't become A350 orders instead, as it's essentially the same plane as the 787.

Actually they are not the same plane in terms of size and mission. The A350 variants kind of sits between the 787 and the 777-8/9. And indeed there are airlines that have order a mix of 787 and A350 to suit different roles.

IMO the A350 is a better 747 replacement for Qantas than the 789 is. The 789 is ideal for new long thinner routes or converting periodic 747 services to daily.

 

[milehighclub]

The two 747 that were not refurbished have had their mini refresh already.

 

[Himeno]

Qantas Group currently has the 787 order (8 orders, 15 options, 30 rights), the A380 order (8 orders, 4 options) and an A320 order (They ordered 110 A320s in 2011, including 78 NEOs. Some of those were delivered for JQHK, then sold. The remaining are due between this year and 2022).

Even if they replaced all the remaining 747s with 787s over the next 5-7 years, they'd still need a larger aircraft to replace the 12 active A380s. That would likely be either the remaining A380 orders/options (unlikely) or 777Xs. Either way, an order to that effect won't need to happen for another 3-5 years at least.
It is possible that they convert the remaining A380 orders to A320s and along with any other needed orders, get enough on the book to replace the entire narrowbody fleet.

I'd expect to hear details about the 787 seats and an A380 refresh (even if they don't start a refresh for another 18 months, they did announce the A330 refit a year before they started work on it).

There is the question of what they will do once they have a net gain of 2 A330s, compared to the last year, when the refits are complete. If new international routes/extra flights are planned, they'll be making requests for frequency rights to IASC in the lead up to the results announcement.

 

[moa999]

The two 747 that were not refurbished have had their mini refresh already.

Good to know. Surprised no photos published anywhere.
Has seen one of the aircraft has maintenance in HKG but was unsure if this involved the mini refurb as well

 

[milehighclub]

It is the same seat covers as on the A380 and refurbished 747 so no one probably has bothered to take one.

OJM still doesn't have the toaster or espresso machine from what I can see but looks like OJM has new fabrics. OEB has everything done for the mini refresh.

 

[moa999]

It is the same seat covers as on the A380 and refurbished 747 so no one probably has bothered to take one.
.

So red ribbed seat coverings for both old First and the SkyBedIs ??

 

[moa999]

Under a week to go. Any more guesses?

 

[DavidFlynn]

OR at least 1 Dreamliner 787 brought into domestic operations.

Nope, not unless you count limited domestic (and likely trans-Tas) proving runs for the first 787 in Q4 next year before it kicks onto its designated international route.

Way down the track of course the 787s replace the A330s, so you'll get your wish eventually.

 

[Pleb Status]

Nope, not unless you count limited domestic (and likely trans-Tas) proving runs for the first 787 in Q4 next year before it kicks onto its designated international route.

Way down the track of course the 787s replace the A330s, so you'll get your wish eventually.

Hopefully the 787 never makes it into domestic operations..... There is no advantage in Y over the 330 (unless less seat width is a positive).

 

[DavidFlynn]

Hopefully the 787 never makes it into domestic operations..... There is no advantage in Y over the 330 (unless less seat width is a positive).

I think Qantas sees the 787 as having more advantages to them than to the bloke in 35E...

 

[samh004]

Actually they are not the same plane in terms of size and mission. The A350 variants kind of sits between the 787 and the 777-8/9. And indeed there are airlines that have order a mix of 787 and A350 to suit different roles.

IMO the A350 is a better 747 replacement for Qantas than the 789 is. The 789 is ideal for new long thinner routes or converting periodic 747 services to daily.

Since my comment I did some research and see there is an A350-ULR that has an impressive range, however wouldn't hold enough pax and I'm not sure QF could make a mostly premium service work (though a 16k KM range A350 in J/Y+ SYD-JFK direct or PER-LHR would be enticing to some premium travellers I'm sure). Sorry, off topic.

 

[sydks]

From Travel Daily:

Best result in the airline's 95-year history.*

Qantas has just released its financial results for the year to 30 June, with record profits recorded across the board. The statutory profit before tax was $1.42 billion - an increase of 80% year on year - and the "underlying profit before tax" figure used to gauge performance internally was $1.53 billion, up 57%.