Qantas - new SYD-AKL-YYZ 787 service rumours

[Bundy Bear]

It's not really an upgrade, is it.

It is when you want to fly PE and don’t want to fly via Sydney.

The A332 is good when there is 2 of you flying together.

 

[HS-TQE]

I’m not sure if a simple change of plane on an existing route would dramatically improve Queensland Labor’s chances of retaining government at the next election. The average voter doesn’t know cough about plane manufacturers, but what will grab voter attention is launching new routes. BNE-ORD is in the box seat for the next new long haul QF route from BNE, but the 787 fleet is currently under some strain and I doubt that BNE-ORD and BNE-SFO are coming back anytime soon as QF have Paris to launch and this rumoured Toronto service, which takes new Brisbane services off the cards until at least 2027.

Where "there's a will, there's a way" when it comes to re-elections though, especially when political sides of both major party colours have a history of willing to spend taxpayer money on re-election.

Unfortunately though it's a "Rob Paul to Pay Peter" situation if Queensland Gov't and/or the BAC wanted the QF (premium heavy) 787 to return to BNE sooner, meaning an intended route launch would have to be cancelled, or an existing 787 route downgauged to free up the 787(s) to substitute the A330 with the premium-heavy 787 on BNE-LAX, especially if said upgrade was to be tied in with the BAC and taxpayer co-funded AAIF money.

 

[justinbrett]

Seems far fetched. SYD-AKL-ORD (or SYD-BNE-ORD) would make a lot more sense, with plenty of connections to YYZ/YUL etc given it's an AA hub. Also eat into the NZ market share on AKL-ORD.

If there was a compelling case for YYZ, why hasn't NZ already started it? If it was sunrise SYD-YYZ direct I could understand, but we already have several one stop routes to YYZ.

 

[Rangalad]

Also to mention in regards to the earlier rumour from the OP's source, I don't think that source has got the memo that QF has dialled back SYD-AKL-JFK expansion from daily to 5x weekly.

Playing devil’s advocate:

There have been a number of significant changes to the upcoming AU/NZ schedule.

 

[lovestotravel]

QF can't wait to get rid of their A380's sadly
Also Project Sunrise will have some very interesting news when that comes around

 

[Jay M]

Surely chicago or Miami make more sense

 

[shuuy]

YYZ pax are already served through a YVR transit onto SYD

Not really - WS integration isn’t great (both ways QF-WS and WS-QF I couldn’t get the second leg boarding pass at check-in), and WS is more JQ than QF in its service.

I’m surprised they wouldn’t prioritise deployment to SYD-PER-CDG (cashed-up Aussies), SYD/MEL/BNE-SFO/SEA (business travel), or China as passport restrictions ease?

Fun time speculating. @Mods - a crowdsourced poll?

 

[RSVKanga]

I’m surprised they wouldn’t prioritise deployment to SYD-PER-CDG (cashed-up Aussies), SYD/MEL/BNE-SFO/SEA (business travel), or China as passport restrictions ease?

But they are?

They’ve confirmed Dreamliner SYD-PER-CDG flights which are commencing 12 July 2024.

They also resumed regular flights to China on October 29 2023 (SYD-PVG A330).

SYD-SFO resumed in early 2023 (787).

And while the pre-Covid BNE/MEL-SFO probably aren’t coming back anytime soon, MEL-DFW and SYD-AKL-JFK are new 787 routes that didn’t exist pre-Covid.

 

[elanshin]

I don't see the passenger traffic for YYZ. If QF would be to launch another city in tht region, ORD would be the candidate in my books (BNE <> ORD)

 

[dajop]

Let's all hope Qantas don't plan to launch flights to Chicago again.

#1 ... supposed to start in Mar 2003 as extension of MEL-LAX service. SARS outbreak which undermined international travel and Qantas profitability often cited as a reason for this
#2 ,... supposed to start in 2020. We all know what happened.

Please no attempt #3.

 

[Mwenenzi]

Currently rumours circulating about a potential Sydney-Auckland-Toronto 787 service (3x a week) launching from late 2024, complementing the existing Sydney-Auckland-New York QF3 service which will become daily by August 2024. The free 787s are available from SYD-JNB switching from 787 to A380 from mid 2024. On that note I've also heard talk that QF is considering acquiring the 3 787s Bamboo Airways are removing from their fleet with the aim of them flying with QF seats and colours by 2025.

Does anyone have any more information on this planned/rumoured service?

Seems far fetched. SYD-AKL-ORD (or SYD-BNE-ORD) would make a lot more sense, with plenty of connections to YYZ/YUL etc given it's an AA hub. Also eat into the NZ market share on AKL-ORD.

If there was a compelling case for YYZ, why hasn't NZ already started it? If it was sunrise SYD-YYZ direct I could understand, but we already have several one stop routes to YYZ.

Or Air Canada. If there was a market AC would be flying it. (but would need aircraft with range) AC does/used to fly to BNE, SYD, MEL & AKL from YVR. Cannot see a market for eastern Canada. The date "late 2024" is near mid winter. While some canucks will be wanting to escape the cold cannot see many Aussies heading to Toronto. Toronto does not have the attractions of NYC.
Anyway Toronto is not that far from NYC.

Ultra long flights burn a lot of fuel just to keep it flying. Burning fuel to carry that fuel. So bad economics = a premium price per mile.

Like others I think ORD will be the next new USA destination for QF

A map from the Great Circle Mapper

A map from the Great Circle Mapper

www.gcmap.com

 

[Himeno]

Let's all hope Qantas don't plan to launch flights to Chicago again.

#1 ... supposed to start in Mar 2003 as extension of MEL-LAX service. SARS outbreak which undermined international travel and Qantas profitability often cited as a reason for this
#2 ,... supposed to start in 2020. We all know what happened.

Please no attempt #3.

So SARS-CoV-1 hits Canada and Hong Kong (among a handful of others) shortly before MEL-LAX-ORD was due to start.
Then SARS-CoV-2 pandemic hits shortly before BNE-ORD is due to start.

You think we'd get SARS-CoV-3 if QF were to work on a flight to ORD again?

 

[HS-TQE]

I can't see BNE-ORD anytime soon in the short term. Only chance of that happening, is of course the Queensland Government and the BAC step in by going to QF directly through the BAC and partial taxpayer funded AAIF money to subsidise a BNE-ORD service, perhaps even include BNE-LAX in that subsidy package.

Also to mention BNE hasn't been a 787 base since early 2020, so I can't see that specific route happening anytime soon, nor see QF willing to spend the money shuttling SYD/MEL staff up to BNE (either through a standard domestic rotation or operating a SYD-BNE 787 tag similar to the old QF8 service).

 

[RSVKanga]

I can't see BNE-ORD anytime soon in the short term. Only chance of that happening, is of course the Queensland Government and the BAC step in by going to QF directly through the BAC and partial taxpayer funded AAIF money to subsidise a BNE-ORD service, perhaps even include BNE-LAX in that subsidy package.

Also to mention BNE hasn't been a 787 base since early 2020, so I can't see that specific route happening anytime soon, nor see QF willing to spend the money shuttling SYD/MEL staff up to BNE (either through a standard domestic rotation or operating a SYD-BNE tag similar to the old QF8 service).

BNE is off the cards for any 787 service until at least 2027 I reckon. The fleet is very busy and any new 787 flights from Brisbane would require compromise on exisiting routes and to be fair I wouldn’t want existing 787 routes cut to make space for BNE.

However that doesn’t mean BNE should be neglected especially considering they’re hosting the 2032 Olympics and by then they could and should have QF services to LHR, SFO, ORD, PVG, JFK, CDG……

It’s really all the fault of the Joyce administration for ordering such a low number of aircraft overall which is why new routes like these cannot happen even if the economics stack up.

 

[exceladdict]

I can't see BNE-ORD anytime soon in the short term. Only chance of that happening, is of course the Queensland Government and the BAC step in by going to QF directly through the BAC and partial taxpayer funded AAIF money to subsidise a BNE-ORD service, perhaps even include BNE-LAX in that subsidy package.

Also to mention BNE hasn't been a 787 base since early 2020, so I can't see that specific route happening anytime soon, nor see QF willing to spend the money shuttling SYD/MEL staff up to BNE (either through a standard domestic rotation or operating a SYD-BNE 787 tag similar to the old QF8 service).

Out of interest would there be 787 crew based in WA when the MEL tag is dropping off 9/10? Or would that be a rotation

 

[jrfsp]

Out of interest would there be 787 crew based in WA when the MEL tag is dropping off 9/10? Or would that be a rotation

There was pre Covid, so assume it’s still going

 

[HS-TQE]

Out of interest would there be 787 crew based in WA when the MEL tag is dropping off 9/10? Or would that be a rotation

IIRC, LHR-PER-LHR is operated by the LHR based crew. They simply have their mandated rest then eventually work a return flight back to LHR.

I would guess the MEL based crew that worked the MEL-PER-MEL legs of QF9/10 would be moved elsewhere on the network.

 

[RSVKanga]

Or Air Canada. If there was a market AC would be flying it. (but would need aircraft with range) AC does/used to fly to BNE, SYD, MEL & AKL from YVR. Cannot see a market for eastern Canada.

There is, or was, a market. AC were flying a direct 777 flight between Sydney and Toronto via Vancouver until Covid hit in 2020 (AC34). The YVR-YYZ leg was a domestic-tag leg similar to PER-MEL on QF10. Same aircraft and same flight number. That tag leg was axed when the route resumed post-Covid and it’s now purely a Vancouver-Sydney flight.

 

[LondonAussie]

IIRC, LHR-PER-LHR is operated by the LHR based crew. They simply have their mandated rest then eventually work a return flight back to LHR.

Correct, same as LHR-SIN-LHR, worked by London-based crew (who QF can pay less than Aussie crews, despite London cost of living being higher).

 

[dajop]

There is, or was, a market. AC were flying a direct 777 flight between Sydney and Toronto via Vancouver until Covid hit in 2020 (AC34). The YVR-YYZ leg was a domestic-tag leg similar to PER-MEL on QF10. Same aircraft and same flight number. That tag leg was axed when the route resumed post-Covid and it’s now purely a Vancouver-Sydney flight.

That may or may not say something about demand,. Could also be about operational flexibility? Plenty of flights between YVR and YYZ of course, and in fact many (but certainly not all) days the 77L that does SYD-YVR continues on 2 hrs later to YYZ (and vice versa).