Qantas Systematic Cancellation of Flights

Nobody is gaming any landing slots.

Qantas have a proven track record of deceit, coercion and manipulation. I would suggest that the vast majority of people in the know disagree vehemently with your assertion.

But without any oversight or scrutiny that keeps the Airlines in check we wont have any clarity.
 
also fly the night before if there is anything super early/urgent for the next day. I have started to schedule my days around the fact that my flights might (read: will) be delayed.

As I always have to fly out of HBA to catch an international flight, I nearly always fly out the day before to the international departure port (even if the int departure is in the afternoon) but never on the last service of the day.

If my international flight is in the evening, I will fly the domestic connection the same day, but have it so that there are at least two later departures and still time to catch international. Costs me, and I probably have more time than most, but my stress levels are kept comfortably low.
 
I now think to myself that as long as I get to the destination with a reasonable time I'm fine. I also fly the night before if there is anything super early/urgent for the next day. I have started to schedule my days around the fact that my flights might (read: will) be delayed. Not that it helps, but lowers the expectations.
I just feel sad and a bit angry that it has come to this, especially when a paying J customer with FF status. It definitely has though, and I adopt a similar approach when travelling for work or for leisure for particular family occasions/commitments.

It’s the old “bundle of rights” writ large. But it also now annoys the hell out of me that I do not get that same flexibility to fly when I feel like exercising my rights - say my right to the flight I paid over the odds for because the timings suited me. They NEVER refund the fare difference, which can be hundreds of dollars when they put you on a much less convenient flight that you could have booked yourself if you wanted to fly at that time. If ever you ask about this, the don’t even understand the question— “you’re complaining because you booked a J flight and you got a J flight, on the same day no less, what on earth is your issue?”

I understand that there are constraints in QF caused by third parties like airports and ATC, as well as those caused by QF itself, but as the passenger, I frankly do not care. Other than for things that are genuinely outside QF’s control like weather and emergencies, I just want them to give me what I paid for, and if I don’t get that, I want reasonable treatment and support. I also want an AUTOMATIC and prompt refund to my credit card and proper adjustment of FF points and SC without making me jump through a lot of hoops, send in ridiculous documentation that they don’t even provide (eg a boarding pass for a flight they KNOW I already took) and then send 9 follow up emails, resubmit ll the doco and wait 8 months to get partial resolution - finally SC and FF points sorted, refund for involuntary downgrade for J to Y still being discussed/argued. So really, my ability to sympathise with QF has hit rock bottom.
 
So Qantas game the landing slots in their favour to deter competition, and the Airports (ATC) send a few staff home in response to say two can play this game. Tit for tat with the Consumer ultimately suffering.

This behaviour is being allowed (supported and endorsed) by the Australian Government who sit by idly and refuse to establish anything resembling an Airline Ombudsman for fear of losing their precious Chairman’s Lounge status.
100%. I recently had some time on my hands, so sent an email to my Federal MP, Patrick Gorman asking if the Government were going to set up a proper ombudsman or introduce something similar to EU 261.
Got no response after quite a while, so tried to chase it up.

First response (phone call): It must have been caught in the spam filter.

Second response (email): The person who was looking into it has been on leave (for two months)

Third response (decided to pop by his office as I was driving past): Oh, our response must have been caught up by YOUR spam filter. Was almost pushed out the door by the office manager.

Ironic thing was - the guy ahead of me in the office was also there to ask what was being done to bring QF to account!!!!

EDIT: The final response: Thank you for your enquiry. We'll shortly be releasing an Aviation Green Paper.
 
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100%. I recently had some time on my hands, so sent an email to my Federal MP, Patrick Gorman asking if the Government were going to set up a proper ombudsman or introduce something similar to EU 261.

Well, its a long way from Perth to Canberra, and a chap definitely needs Chairman's Lounge access to prepare for the ordeal of the long flight.
 
Qantas have a proven track record of deceit, coercion and manipulation. I would suggest that the vast majority of people in the know disagree vehemently with your assertion.

But without any oversight or scrutiny that keeps the Airlines in check we wont have any clarity.
Do you review the daily ATFM plan (technically there are several per day, but they call it daily) and the monthly operational reports? Are you a user of Harmony? My guess is that you don't even know what it is.

The daily ATFM plan and monthly operational reports are public. You can look at them anytime and verify the data I shared and what Qantas and Virgin have said on the matter.
 
Do you review the daily ATFM plan (technically there are several per day, but they call it daily) and the monthly operational reports? Are you a user of Harmony? My guess is that you don't even know what it is.

The daily ATFM plan and monthly operational reports are public. You can look at them anytime and verify the data I shared and what Qantas and Virgin have said on the matter.

I for one don't, but I do read many reports of the CEO of Sydney Airport criticising both major airlines for slot hording. One from July this year

Sydney Airport urges intervention on ‘slot-hoarding’

Now, I don't doubt what you are saying is true, and no doubt a strong contributing factor, but I also think the CEO of Sydney Airport knows a thing or two about what's going on.
 
I for one don't, but I do read many reports of the CEO of Sydney Airport criticising both major airlines for slot hording. One from July this year

Sydney Airport urges intervention on ‘slot-hoarding’

Now, I don't doubt what you are saying is true, and no doubt a strong contributing factor, but I also think the CEO of Sydney Airport knows a thing or two about what's going on.
Bizarrely, no, they don't. The airport themselves have absolutely no part in the slot management and ATFM process. In fact, they have far less knowledge and access than the airlines. It's the whole point of the process that creates a Chinese wall between the airports and the airlines with respect to slot management and utilisation, and to remove them from lobbying within the process so as to avoid the possibility of any individual airline collaborating withe the airport.

The reason why Sydney Airport went after Qantas and Virgin is because both Qantas and Virgin criticised the airports during the Productivity Commission review of airports (see Inquiry report), arguing that the airports are squeezing the airlines. Sydney Airport would absolutely love Qantas and Virgin to loose some slots which will inevitably go to foreign airlines who Sydney Airport can charge more. That is their game, they want more international flights, replacing domestic ... and smaller airlines that can't really negotiate with them like Qantas and Virgin can!
 
But yes, ATC delays related to flow rate limitations would clearly be within the realm of "extraordinary circumstances". I've worked in this space and this was pretty normal - this is because it's rather easy for the airline to show since they will share a communication from the ATC ATFM which shows a flow rate limitation during the departure block. Generally, the airline will attach a copy of this to the notes in the GDS to document it specifically to avoid the EU261 penalty. LH even created an automated process ;) A difference is if the ATC was caused by an airline error, e.g. missing CODT or missing a slot for an operational delay which led to further delays.
Even if we accept for a moment that ATC delays are outside of the control of airlines for the purpose of EU261, could that defence be extinguished given the length of the delay? For instance, if ATC delays causes a scheduled flight to be cancelled and the next flight they put you on departs a day later, that seems unreasonable. Sure the airlines could argue that was the next available flight for the passenger for a service they operate, but one could make the argument that there are other services that could have gotten the passenger in sooner (i.e. operated by Virgin). At the same time, depending on when the cancellation was spotted one also has to wonder whether the airline could have done something to prevent the disruption. For instance, could they not have simply put them on the nonstop between SIN and MEL (I think QF operates that service).

-RooFlyer88
 
Goes to show how BS the 100% of impacted domestic pax being accommodated prior to or within 1 hr of the original departure time claim is that Qantas was touting in their press release yesterday. I wonder what kind of statistical gymnastics and word smithing were used to come up with that claim.
That was in specific reference to the ‘ghost’ flights, which were cancelled weeks before departure. Different scenario than same day IRROPS where flights are already nearing capacity and then have to handle additional pax coming off other flights.
 
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Even if we accept for a moment that ATC delays are outside of the control of airlines for the purpose of EU261, could that defence be extinguished given the length of the delay? For instance, if ATC delays causes a scheduled flight to be cancelled and the next flight they put you on departs a day later, that seems unreasonable. Sure the airlines could argue that was the next available flight for the passenger for a service they operate, but one could make the argument that there are other services that could have gotten the passenger in sooner (i.e. operated by Virgin). At the same time, depending on when the cancellation was spotted one also has to wonder whether the airline could have done something to prevent the disruption. For instance, could they not have simply put them on the nonstop between SIN and MEL (I think QF operates that service).

-RooFlyer88
Conceptually it could, but it might be dependent on the scale of the reduction in flow. If QF or VA get told to reduce one movement an hour, then it's inevitable that it's a SYD-MEL or MEL-SYD that gets cancelled and conceptually it shouldn't be challenging to reaccomodate people sooner given the large redundancies.

If they get told to reduce their flow by a third, then the scale of pax they need to reaccomodate is large. Keep in mind that if the flow is reduced in one block, it's likely that later blocks are also affected, leaving them in a precarious position. They often see cancelations about protecting network integrity, hence not always getting you on what might appear as the soonest available departure since they may keep that space to protect connections elsewhere.

And yes, QF most definitely should have been proactive and looked at the final destination. However, there may have been some challenges (e.g., SIN-MEL may already have been zero space or even negative space). Having worked in operations, it's often a situation of finding the best of the worst.

A negative externality of the EU261 type solutions is the incentives for airlines. I worked a project for a European carrier where they wanted to develop an algorithmic solution to reduce EU261 3 hour rule. The system identified flights that would be delayed 3 hours and switch them with higher frequency sectors that could be delayed shorter, but to knock on the delays. So the idea was that instead of having one delayed flight of say 4 hours which would be due compensation, it identified opportunities to delay two flights 2.5 hours to not have to pay any compensation. Point being, airlines adapted to EU261 not necessarily improving, but by simply shifting around the deckchairs to minimise the impact on them
 
So tomorrow's ATFM is out. Perfect weather in SYD expected, yet due to staffing issues inbound flow rate will be a max of 38 per hour. So even in the best blocks, they'll have to cut 2 arrivals per hour. This is small, so they may be able to counter with cascading delays to allow some of the free space in the evening to be used instead, so pushing an 8am to 9am, a 9am to 10am, etc and escalating throughout the day. But this has its limits. This is probably enough not to cancel too many, but simply delay. International operators and regional operators will not be asked to cut, just pure domestic arrivals.

MEL has some constraints, but has gaps in the middle of the day, so they have to push some but have enough redundancy to avoid any cancellations due to their flow (although affected by SYD). BNE has an ILS outage tomorrow (on 19L) which is resulting in a reduced arrival rate - capped at 24. PER had a constrained arrival rate and no gaps for recovery. GDP in place. One can see the lack of redundancy elsewhere in the system since delaying a SYD departure or arrival has implications on flow elsewhere. Since this is constrained, it will inevitably result in cancellations.

Airlines were notified around 7:30pm of the limitations. It can take a few hours to plan the adjustments, but some cancellations are already in the system but expect a few more.
 
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@evanb can you give an opinion on what is causing this constant imposition of flow restrictions, or more likely, what combination of factors has created this kind of situation?

Is it not enough recruiting to meet demand; inability to recruit sufficiently due to low balling salary offers; too many staff/senior staff left during Covid shutdowns; lack of infrastructure development; efforts to save money by <insert party here>; or what?
 
Thanks @evanb , very informative.

From a consumer's point of view, the question now is why are airlines just reacting to a daily evening situational briefing by cancelling flights the next day, and not, especially in the case of Sydney, adjusting (reduced) their schedules over a longer time frame, given that these issues have been present for some time and I guess will continue for a while yet? (Warning - leading question :) )
 
A negative externality of the EU261 type solutions is the incentives for airlines. I worked a project for a European carrier where they wanted to develop an algorithmic solution to reduce EU261 3 hour rule. The system identified flights that would be delayed 3 hours and switch them with higher frequency sectors that could be delayed shorter, but to knock on the delays. So the idea was that instead of having one delayed flight of say 4 hours which would be due compensation, it identified opportunities to delay two flights 2.5 hours to not have to pay any compensation. Point being, airlines adapted to EU261 not necessarily improving, but by simply shifting around the deckchairs to minimise the impact on them
I would argue that delay two flights by 2.5 hours is better than delaying a single flight by 4 hours (or more) as the case may be. The other thing to keep in mind about EU261 is what matters is arrival at final destination. So if you are on a connecting flight (which largely is the case for flights to Oceania from Europe) having a 4 hour delay in and of itself may not trigger EU261 (especially if some passengers had long layovers at the connection point anyways). If anything what EU261 should trigger airlines to do is to look at the individual passenger and see how they are impacted by a flight change. Not all changes will impact passengers but some will and action should thus be taken such as rerouting them to prevent the delayed arrival.
 
Thanks @evanb , very informative.

From a consumer's point of view, the question now is why are airlines just reacting to a daily evening situational briefing by cancelling flights the next day, and not, especially in the case of Sydney, adjusting (reduced) their schedules over a longer time frame, given that these issues have been present for some time and I guess will continue for a while yet? (Warning - leading question :) )

Slots must be utilised in order to be "returned" (the term used when you retain the slot in the next season). If they cancel before the ATFM flow rate reduction it counts as the service not being operated for the purposes of slot utilisation. Once they receive ATFM flow rate reduction and a request to reduce volume, that then gets taken into account in terms of the 80/20 slot usage rule.
 
I would argue that delay two flights by 2.5 hours is better than delaying a single flight by 4 hours (or more) as the case may be. The other thing to keep in mind about EU261 is what matters is arrival at final destination. So if you are on a connecting flight (which largely is the case for flights to Oceania from Europe) having a 4 hour delay in and of itself may not trigger EU261 (especially if some passengers had long layovers at the connection point anyways). If anything what EU261 should trigger airlines to do is to look at the individual passenger and see how they are impacted by a flight change. Not all changes will impact passengers but some will and action should thus be taken such as rerouting them to prevent the delayed arrival.
I see it somewhat differently. Delaying 180 pax for 4 hours each, or 360 pax for 2.5 hours each? I think delaying more people for a little less is probably worse, but that is very subjective. You're correct on the arrival time, but the majority of pax in Australia or Europe are single trip short haul, not affected by connections.

Conceptually yes, they should look at each individual passenger, but it's simply too many people to look at in limited time period. They rely on automated systems algorithms to identify risk in the system. But the point being is that many European airlines have developed models to account for potential EU261 costs and optimise around that. Sometimes paying the compensation can be their most profitable solution, but other times they're effective at avoiding it, often by canceling flights two weeks out if they perceive the risk exceeds the reward.
 
@evanb can you give an opinion on what is causing this constant imposition of flow restrictions, or more likely, what combination of factors has created this kind of situation?

Is it not enough recruiting to meet demand; inability to recruit sufficiently due to low balling salary offers; too many staff/senior staff left during Covid shutdowns; lack of infrastructure development; efforts to save money by <insert party here>; or what?

It's a confluence of things really, without any short term solutions and devoid of political leadership. Air Services Australia are significantly short of controllers due to training delays during and early retirements during COVID. They also slowed down international recruitment during COVID. They've prioritised recruitment since, but they're competing in a global market and there are similar shortages in other countries.

They're a fee for service model and received grants during COVID and occasionally for infrastructure. They are spending big on tech which helps, but these are longer term plans that are relatively on track (aside from COVID supply chain delays).

On the other side, the weakness is about system redundancy. Shortages of runways means that airports are all constrained. Airlines can't shift around network flows when there are problems at one place, and don't have redundancy capacity to catch up when one place is subject to a temporary flow restriction. For example, MEL is oversubscribed in the morning, but has several blocks where is can catch-up, so some relatively small delays won't compound. However, other airports don't have that slack tomorrow. If SYD had that redundancy it wouldn't have to cancel.
 
I definitely believe the (ongoing) ATC staffing issues causing effects (as described so well already) has been a major factor in flight consolidation by QF on a busy route like MEL-SYD v.v. - it makes a lot of sense, specially when at peak times there's a 15 minute frequency. Now, it bites if you're on the one cancelled (and I'm pretty sure I'm booked on a prime candidate in a few weeks :D ) and then get shafted to a poor seat on the next one, or in the case of wanting J, potentially waiting more time (or being downgraded) to get you there.

Of course ATC is not the only issue - throw in some real weather going on (the other day, for example, MEL generated its own delays with some fairly gnarly winds affecting ops), but it's a consistent factor and has been for some time. No doubt, training up more ATC folks is neither fast nor cheap so who knows when the issues will be potentially resolved. I was also listening to a podcast recently, I think PCDU, regarding consolidation of ATC resources themselves - iirc basically two installations handle pretty much the whole country iirc? I'm sure @evanb or someone else can correct me on that, but, as I understood it, for example, ADL is pretty much run out of MEL (for example). However, still need enough controllers to handle the various areas, approaches, departures etc - and to do it safely.

Whatever the causes, I think if you're a pax, you'd rather it was a high frequency route (like a triangle flight) that copped it, rather than a SYD-HBA or SYD-DRW or something for all sorts of fairly clear reasons. Well, of course we'd all rather NOTHING was cancelled, but if something has to give, I'd rather something like that.
 
iirc basically two installations handle pretty much the whole country iirc? I'm sure @evanb or someone else can correct me on that, but, as I understood it, for example, ADL is pretty much run out of MEL (for example). However, still need enough controllers to handle the various areas, approaches, departures etc - and to do it safely.

Some truths but a bit mixed up.

There's basically three different units of ATC:
Aerodrome / Tower (handles the aircraft from the gate until take off, and then from final to gate)
TCU / Departures / Approach (handles the aircraft from airborne to ~FL180, and similar on return)
Enroute / Centre - The high level stuff in between. These are area specific and not tied to aerodromes.

There are two enroute centres - Brisbane & Melbourne.

In addition to these, they can run TCU remotely - but still with dedicated staff (ie, you work in Melbourne, but you are a Canberra TCU controller - you don't just sub in for Adelaide when someone calls sick). Although they are colocated with the en route centre, it's still a separate set of controllers.

So not only do you have role specific ATC (between the three units it's very rare to mix - although more common between Tower & TCU of the same airport) - but you also have location specific roles. It's difficult to move people between roles as you have to train them, so you're down a controller from the start of training until they get up to speed.

Sydney TCU is moving to Melbourne which has caused major morale issues and causing a lot of experienced people to leave.

There's a good article on Wikipedia on this - Australian air traffic control - Wikipedia

I just remembered I created it nearly 20 years ago and it's still kicking along!
 
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